The paper develops a new approach to conditional risk measures using modular convex analysis.
problem Developing a new method for conditional risk measures.
method Random modular approach to conditional certainty equivalents and niveloids in the conditional L∞-space. result Retrieves a conditional variational formula for optimized certainty equivalents and applies it to the conditional entropic risk measure.
The paper extends static Systemic Risk Measures to a conditional setting.
problem Investigating how static Systemic Risk Measures can be adapted to a conditional framework.
method Providing a general dual representation result, analyzing Conditional Shortfall Systemic Risk Measures, and providing explicit formulas for exponential preferences.
result Explicit formulas for Conditional Shortfall Systemic Risk Measures and a time consistency property.
Paper addresses Heston model under violated Feller condition, deriving new change of measure conditions.
problem Investigates Heston model under Feller condition violation.
method Derives sufficient conditions for equivalent martingale measure and true martingale stock price process.
result New conditions for change of measure and martingale properties in Heston model are established.
We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional aggregation and a univariate conditional risk measure. Our studies extend known results f…
We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure as introduced Hoffmann et al. (2016). Further, in analogy to the univariate cas…
New conditional risk measures called conditional generalized quantiles defined and characterized.
problem Developing new risk measures for dynamic risk assessment.
method Propose and characterize conditional generalized quantiles using expected utility model and equivalent conditions.
result Characterized conditional generalized quantiles as well-defined and equivalent to a conditional first order condition.
This work explores the connection between distances and kernels for conditional independence.
problem Measuring conditional independence in various fields like causal discovery and feature selection.
method Investigates the relationship between conditional independence measures induced by distances and reproducing kernels.
result Some kernel-based conditional independence measures are not equivalent to distance-based measures.
The paper establishes a connection between different risk measures and their risk contributions.
problem Understanding the relationship between conditional coherent and deviation risk measures.
method Axiomatic framework and continuous-time risk contribution analysis.
result Risk contributions of time-consistent risk measures are also time-consistent.
The paper studies optimal transport for vector measures and confirms a conjecture about their conditional measures.
problem Optimal transport of vector measures and conditional measures.
method Developed a theory of optimal transport for vector measures and used it to answer a conjecture.
result The conditional measures of vector measures have total mass zero under certain conditions.
New conditions prevent gaps in optimal control problems.
problem Preventing gaps in optimal control problems with state constraints.
method Developed new sufficient conditions not relying on convexity.
result Derived bounds for the size of the relaxation gap.
To provide a solid analytic foundation for the module approach to conditional risk measures, this paper establishes a complete random convex analysis over random locally convex modules by simultaneously considering the two kinds of topologies (namely the (ε,λ)--topology and the locally L0-- convex topolo…
A new method quantizes conditional probability measures using deep learning.
problem Quantizing conditional probability measures efficiently.
method DCMQ method using Huber-energy kernel and deep neural network.
result Promising results on various examples.
New risk measures assess cryptocurrency market vulnerabilities during financial distress.
problem Capturing systemic risk in cryptocurrency markets during financial distress.
method Introducing Vulnerability Conditional Risk Measures (VCoES) and related measures.
result Validated theoretical insights and demonstrated practical relevance in cryptocurrency market.
This paper introduces new risk measures for systemic risk analysis.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Introducing conditional distortion risk measures and their properties.
result Presented sufficient conditions for ordering risk measures.
Study stability of curvature-dimension condition for negative dimensions.
problem Stability of curvature-dimension condition with negative dimension parameters.
method Introduced CD(K, N)-condition for N < 0, defined distance d_{\mathsf{iKRW}}, proved convergence stability.
result Limit structure of converging metric measure spaces remains CD(K, N) for N < 0.
The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives a brief introduction to random metric theory, risk measures and conditional risk measu…
This paper deals with multidimensional dynamic risk measures induced by conditional g-expectations. A notion of multidimensional g-expectation is proposed to provide a multidimensional version of nonlinear expectations. By a technical result on explicit expressions for the comparison theorem, uniqueness theorem and…
Investigates conditional Chisini means and their application to risk measures.
problem Existence of conditional nonlinear means for bounded random variables.
method Defines a mean as a solution to a functional equation induced by T, and provides conditions for the existence of a unique solution.
result Characterizes the scalarization of conditional Risk Measures.
Paper justifies ideal point forecasts as measurable, clarifying conditions for their existence.
problem Justifying ideal point forecasts as measurable random variables.
method Clarifying and establishing measurability conditions for a wide class of functionals.
result Ideal point forecasts are shown to be measurable, providing theoretical justification.
The tangent space is constructed in sub-Finsler geometry, leading to the failure of the CD condition in 3D-contact manifolds.
problem The failure of the CD condition in sub-Finsler geometry.
method Construction of the tangent space in the measured Gromov-Hausdorff sense, application of nilpotent approximation.
result The CD condition fails in 3D-contact sub-Finsler manifolds.
Paper investigates conditions for independence of weak gradients on metric spaces.
problem Dependence of weak gradients on p in arbitrary metric measure spaces. method Investigates the Bounded Interpolation Property to ensure independence of weak gradients.
result Bounded Interpolation Property guarantees independence of weak gradients.
New financial model revises risk measure under NA condition.
problem Revising classical financial mathematics with coherent risk measure on L0. method Developed a new version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing and provided dual representations.
result Set of risk-hedging prices is closed under NA condition.
This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on …
We define Conditional quasi concave Performance Measures (CPMs), on random variables bounded from below, to accommodate for additional information. Our notion encompasses a wide variety of cases, from conditional expected utility and certainty equivalent to conditional acceptability indexes. We provide the characteriza…
Improves full conformal prediction for stochastic non-conformity measures.
problem Inability of existing conditions to guarantee full conformal prediction validity under stochastic settings.
method Introduces a new sufficient condition: Conditional Independence & Permutation Invariance in Distribution.
result Corrects the insufficient condition and provides a new sufficient condition for full conformal prediction validity.
Unified framework for global and local two-sample conditional distribution testing.
problem Testing equality of two conditional distributions.
method Distance and kernel methods, conditional U-statistics, local bootstrap.
result Developed reliable global and local tests.
Reframed GES uses a neural conditional dependence measure for consistent causal structure learning.
problem Identifying causal structure in nonparametric settings.
method Reframed GES algorithm with a neural conditional dependence measure.
result Optimality and consistency of the reframed GES algorithm under standard assumptions.
We give sufficient conditions for a measured length space (X,d,m) to admit local and global Poincare inequalities. We first introduce a condition DM on (X,d,m), defined in terms of transport of measures. We show that DM, along with a doubling condition on m, implies a scale-invariant local Poincare inequality. We show …
We study the stability of several no-arbitrage conditions with respect to absolutely continuous, but not necessarily equivalent, changes of measure. We first consider models based on continuous semimartingales and show that no-arbitrage conditions weaker than NA and NFLVR are always stable. Then, in the context of gene…
Measuring conditional dependencies among the variables of a network is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies some shortcomings of the existing dependency measures in detecting direct causal influences or their lack of ability for group selection to capture strong dependencies and accordingly introdu…
Study on conditioning Gaussian measures on nonlinear observations, including representer theorem and mode estimation.
problem Conditioning Gaussian measures on nonlinear observations in Bayesian inference and machine learning.
method Representer theorem, novel mode definition, maximum a posteriori estimation, Laplace approximation.
result Identification of infinite-dimensional Gaussian and finite-dimensional non-Gaussian components in conditioned measures.
We study convex risk measures describing the upper and lower bounds of a good deal bound, which is a subinterval of a no-arbitrage pricing bound. We call such a convex risk measure a good deal valuation and give a set of equivalent conditions for its existence in terms of market. A good deal valuation is characterized …
Unified approach to risk measurement using Skew Exponential Power distribution.
problem Direct measurement of market risk with improved asymmetry and non-linearity.
method Unified Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Risk Measures using Skew Exponential Power distribution with semiparametric P-spline approximation.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on real data of five stock market indices.
Sharp isoperimetric inequality proven for specific metric measure spaces.
problem Proving isoperimetric inequality in metric measure spaces with synthetic conditions.
method Synthetic condition called Measure-Contraction property; Lévy-Gromov inequality.
result Sharp isoperimetric inequality holds true for spaces with synthetic conditions.
We offer a new, rigorous approach to conditional mean embeddings without operator constraints.
problem Lack of rigorous, operator-free approach to conditional mean embeddings.
method Measure-theoretic approach to conditional mean embeddings.
result Natural regression interpretation and universal consistency of empirical estimates.
Study Bochner formula on metric measure spaces for vanishing Betti numbers.
problem Vanishing Betti numbers on metric measure spaces.
method Introduce weighted curvature conditions.
result Vanishing of all Betti numbers.
Paper introduces contribution measures for systemic risk in crypto markets.
problem Evaluating systemic risk and quantifying risk interactions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Develops various contribution ratio measures based on MCoVaR, MCoES, and MMME.
result Establishes sufficient conditions for comparing contribution measures between sets of random vectors.
Motivated by a classical comparison result of J. C. F. Sturm we introduce a curvature-dimension condition CD(k,N) for general metric measure spaces and variable lower curvature bound k. In the case of non-zero constant lower curvature our approach coincides with the celebrated condition that was proposed by K.-T. Sturm…
Forré introduces a new conditional independence notion for mixed variables.
problem Unified framework for random and non-stochastic variables.
method Unified framework of transitional conditional independence and causal calculus for iDMGs.
result Unified framework connects conditional independencies to graphical separation criteria.
Develops measures for non-Borel Anosov groups on Furstenberg boundary.
problem Measuring non-Borel Anosov groups on the Furstenberg boundary.
method Theory of Patterson--Sullivan measures, strict convexity, entropy rigidity.
result Existence, uniqueness, and ergodicity of measures on Furstenberg boundary.
This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures …
Paper discusses natural quasiconvexity and its relation to decomposable sums in risk measures.
problem Understanding natural quasiconvexity and its implications in risk measures.
method Relates natural quasiconvexity to decomposable sums, proposes a general treatment of convexity index, and proves equivalence for certain spaces.
result Natural quasiconvexity and convexity are equivalent for conditional risk measures on Lp spaces under mild conditions. New vine copula method forecasts portfolio risk measures robust to market downturns.
problem Inaccurate risk measure estimation for financial portfolios due to lack of cross-dependency capture.
method Combines vine copulas with ARMA-GARCH models for marginal risk estimation.
result Portfolio is robust to American market downturns but not European market.
The study examines stability of metric measure spaces with integral Ricci curvature bounds.
problem Stability and compactness of metric measure spaces with integral Ricci curvature bounds.
method Proves convergence to metric measure spaces satisfying CD(K,n) condition under certain curvature bounds. result Proves convergence of sequences of Riemannian manifolds to metric measure spaces satisfying CD(K,n) condition. Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
problem Conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
method Conditions on acceptance sets for induced comonotonic additive risk measures.
result Acceptance sets induce comonotonic additive risk measures if and only if the acceptance sets and their complements are stable under convex combinations of comonotonic random variables.
New framework for calculating multivariate risk measures using Wishart process.
problem Quantifying multivariate risk measures in financial markets.
method Introducing a new analytical framework based on the Wishart process.
result Explicit computation of conditional tail risk measures up to two dimensions.
The paper proves gradient estimates for nonlinear parabolic equations on smooth metric measure spaces.
problem Proving gradient estimates for nonlinear parabolic equations on smooth metric measure spaces.
method Using Souplet-Zhang type estimates and properties of Bakry-Emery Ricci tensor and weighted mean curvature.
result Gradient estimates for nonlinear parabolic equations on smooth metric measure spaces with Dirichlet boundary condition.
The paper introduces a new Wasserstein distance for approximating posteriors in inverse problems.
problem Approximating posterior measures in inverse problems using conditional Wasserstein distances.
method Introduces a conditional Wasserstein distance with restricted couplings and derives its dual.
result Shows that conditional Wasserstein GANs can yield favorable properties for posterior sampling.