The paper examines conditions for linearity in a conditional mean estimator under vector Poisson noise.
problem Conditions for linearity of the conditional mean estimator in vector Poisson noise.
method Analyzes prior distributions and their impact on the conditional mean estimator's linearity.
result The only prior distribution that induces linearity is a product gamma distribution, and non-zero dark current parameter prevents linearity.
New recursive algorithm estimates conditional kernel mean embeddings in Hilbert space.
problem Estimating conditional distributions in RKHS for supervised learning.
method Recursive algorithm in L2 space for conditional kernel mean map. result Strong L2 consistency of recursive estimator proved. A novel k-NN method estimates conditional mean and variance efficiently.
problem Joint estimation of conditional mean and variance.
method Integrates k-NN with automated variance selection.
result Achieves fast convergence rates and improved precision.
We prove a gradient estimate for graphical spacelike mean curvature flow with a general Neumann boundary condition in dimension n=2. This then implies that the mean curvature flow exists for all time and converges to a translating solution.
Estimates means in metric spaces using quantization.
problem No practical estimator for Fréchet means in all metric spaces.
method Introduced estimators based on random quantization and data-driven partitioning.
result Universal consistency of estimators across separable metric spaces and Banach spaces.
The paper estimates area and volume for spacetimes with integral mean curvature bounds.
problem Estimating area and volume for spacetimes with specific curvature conditions.
method Using strong energy condition and norms of second fundamental form/mean curvature.
result Established area and volume estimates for spacetimes.
Proposes CCME framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex distributions.
method Embeds conditional distributions into RKHS, develops meta-estimators for CCME.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates and double robustness for CCME estimators.
Estimates mean and covariance for large, unbalanced stock returns panels.
problem Estimating mean and covariance in large, unbalanced panel data.
method Nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices.
result The idiosyncratic risk explains more than 75% of cross-sectional variance.
Proposes a new framework for deep learning conditional mean estimation with confidence regions.
problem Lack of asymptotic properties in deep nonparametric regression models.
method Transforms deep estimation into conditional diffusion model for conditional mean estimation.
result Developed end-to-end convergence rate and asymptotic normality for conditional diffusion model.
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional distributions which cannot be meaningfully summarized using expectation only (due to e…
New algorithms robustly estimate mean with near-optimal error rates.
problem Outlier robust mean estimation in high-dimensional data.
method Stability condition and iterative filtering algorithms.
result Optimal error rates with subgaussian rates for robust mean estimation.
Estimates prove existence of curvature flow in curved spaces.
problem Mean curvature flow in curved spaces with boundary conditions.
method A priori estimates and existence proof for curvature flow.
result Existence of curvature flow with asymptotic Dirichlet conditions.
Unified framework for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization in normal mean estimation and linear regression.
problem Estimation of normal mean in multivariate settings with correlated observations.
method Approximate risk minimization over a functional class of shrinkage-thresholding rules.
result Unified estimator NOMAD for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization.
Study on critical Lagrangian phase singularities in mean curvature flow.
problem Analyzing singularities in the Lagrangian mean curvature flow at the critical phase.
method Developed new method to prove C2,α estimates by using concave operators. result Established interior estimates for critical Lagrangian phase singularities.
In this note, we study the prescribed mean curvature equation with Neumann boundary conditions on Riemannian product manifold Mn×R. The main goal is to establish the boundary gradient estimates for solutions by the maximum principle. As a consequence, we obtain an existence result.
Boosting trees can test necessary conditions for regression model calibration.
problem Testing calibration and auto-calibration in regression models.
method Using boosting trees to test calibration and auto-calibration.
result Boosting trees prove to be very powerful in testing calibration and auto-calibration in large insurance datasets.
The paper proves existence and growth estimates for inverse mean curvature flow and related p-Laplacian Green kernel decay.
problem Existence and growth estimates for inverse mean curvature flow.
method Proving new decay estimates for the Green kernel of the p-Laplacian. result Existence and optimal growth estimates for the weak inverse mean curvature flow.
We establish gradient estimates for solutions to the Dirichlet problem for the constant mean curvature equation in hyperbolic space. We obtain these estimates on bounded strictly convex domains by using the maximum principles theory of Φ-functions of Payne and Philippin. These estimates are then employed to solve the…
Robust CG methods avoid data corruption and solve structured statistical estimation problems.
problem Data corruption and heavy-tailed data in structured statistical estimation.
method Robustification of Conditional Gradient (CG) type methods using Huber's corruption model and robust mean gradient estimation.
result Robust CG methods converge linearly with correct sample complexity, even for high-dimensional problems.
We offer a new, rigorous approach to conditional mean embeddings without operator constraints.
problem Lack of rigorous, operator-free approach to conditional mean embeddings.
method Measure-theoretic approach to conditional mean embeddings.
result Natural regression interpretation and universal consistency of empirical estimates.
This work extends Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage to unknown mean covariance estimation.
problem Large dimensional covariance matrix estimation with unknown mean under Kolmogorov asymptotics.
method Extending Ledoit-Wolf linear shrinkage to translation-invariant estimators, proving their convergence properties.
result A new estimator outperforms other standard estimators empirically.
Huber regression assessed for robustness in statistical learning.
problem Understanding Huber regression in nonparametric statistical learning.
method Assessment from statistical learning perspective, focusing on risk consistency, adaptive tuning, and convergence rates.
result Huber regression can be asymptotically mean regression calibrated under (1+ε)-moment conditions, justifying its robustness. Study optimizes learning rates for conditional mean embedding estimates.
problem Consistency of kernel ridge regression for conditional mean embedding.
method Adaptive statistical learning rate derived for misspecified setting.
result Upper bound matches optimal O(logn/n) rates without assuming finite dimensionality. Paper improves confidence intervals and variance estimation for deep learning models.
problem Improving confidence intervals and variance estimation in deep learning models.
method Residual-based framework for conditional variance estimation; robust bootstrap procedure for confidence intervals.
result First non-asymptotic bounds for variance estimation using ReLU networks.
A neural network derived from first principles using MaxEnt.
problem Developing a neural network from first principles.
method Derived a neural network using the principle of Maximum Entropy, with linear dimension-reducing transformations and conditional mean estimators.
result Unified theoretical justification for activation functions like sigmoid, softplus, and relu.
We study the problem of estimating the mean of a random vector X given a sample of N independent, identically distributed points. We introduce a new estimator that achieves a purely sub-Gaussian performance under the only condition that the second moment of X exists. The estimator is based on a novel concept of a…
Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
problem Estimating conditional mean functions for binary outcomes with monotonicity constraints.
method Proposes a new BART variant that incorporates monotonicity constraints for binary outcomes.
result Allows for more precise estimation of monotonic functions in binary outcome models.
We study high codimension mean curvature flow of a submanifold Mn of dimension n in Euclidean space Rn+k subject to the quadratic curvature condition ∣A∣2≤cn∣H∣2,cn=min{3n4,n−21}. This condition extends the notion of two-convexity for hypersurface…
Study guarantees convergence of mean shift mode estimation.
problem Ensuring reliable mode estimation in KDE using mean shift.
method Utilizes Łojasiewicz inequality to prove convergence rate.
result Extends convergence guarantees to biweight kernel.
Paper develops a unified framework for measuring differences between conditional distributions.
problem Comparing conditional distributions in a unified and theoretically sound manner.
method Kernel embeddings and conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) framework.
result Established a coherent framework for measuring divergence between conditional distributions.
A new method of moments estimator goes beyond data reweighting.
problem Estimation of moment restrictions and conditional moment restrictions.
method Kernel Method of Moments (KMM) based on maximum mean discrepancy.
result KMM achieves competitive performance on conditional moment restriction tasks.
New boundary condition for weak inverse mean curvature flow in bounded domains.
problem Addressing the well-posedness of inverse mean curvature flow in bounded domains with an outer obstacle.
method Developed a new boundary condition, combined techniques including elliptic regularization, blow-up analysis, and parabolic estimates.
result Existence and uniqueness theorem for weak solutions in smooth bounded domains, with C1,α regularity of level sets up to the obstacle. New method tests CMI using deep neural networks for high-dimensional data.
problem Testing conditional mean independence in high-dimensional settings.
method Population CMI measure and bootstrap-based testing with deep generative neural networks.
result Strong empirical performance and versatility in various scenarios.
New insights into correntropy-based regression reveal robustness and unified approaches.
problem Learning robust regression functions under additive noise.
method Minimum distance estimation and conditional mean, mode, median functions.
result Unified approach to conditional mean, mode, and median functions.
Conditional kernel mean embeddings form an attractive nonparametric framework for representing conditional means of functions, describing the observation processes for many complex models. However, the recovery of the original underlying function of interest whose conditional mean was observed is a challenging inferenc…
This letter presents an improved version of diffusion least mean ppower (LMP) algorithm for distributed estimation. Instead of sum of mean square errors, a weighted sum of mean square error is defined as the cost function for global and local cost functions of a network of sensors. The weight coefficients are updated b…
We analyze linear factor models for asset pricing panels.
problem Characterizing cross-sectional and inter-temporal properties of returns and factors.
method Conditional means and covariances, review of Kozak and Nagel (2024) conditions.
result Low-dimensional factor portfolios can span efficient portfolios in unbalanced panels.
The ratio of two probability densities can be used for solving various machine learning tasks such as covariate shift adaptation (importance sampling), outlier detection (likelihood-ratio test), and feature selection (mutual information). Recently, several methods of directly estimating the density ratio have been deve…
An algorithm estimates the mean of a process from noisy, online sensor data.
problem Estimating the mean of a process from noisy, online sensor data with some sensors behaving maliciously.
method An efficient online algorithm that produces estimates as data comes in, achieving nearly competitive error bounds.
result The algorithm can compute a good approximation to the true mean with error bounds of O(δlog(T)). Paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional densities using logistic regressions.
problem Estimating conditional densities for complex distributions.
method Parametric conditional density estimation via weighted logistic regressions.
result Maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained efficiently via a block-wise alternating maximization scheme and local case-control sampling.
Derives a general derivative identity for conditional mean in Gaussian noise.
problem Understanding conditional mean in Gaussian noise channels.
method Derives a general derivative identity for the conditional mean of X given Y=y in a Markov chain U↔X↔Y. result Provides a unifying view of conditional mean identities and derives new ones.
Study finds solutions to curvature equation with boundary conditions.
problem Finding solutions to curvature equation with boundary conditions.
method Established local C2 estimates and used blow-up analysis. result Existence of conformal metrics with prescribed curvature and boundary conditions.
This article reviews and compares various methods for estimating conditional distributions.
problem Inference of conditional distributions in statistics.
method Classical nonparametric methods and modern generative models.
result A systematic numerical comparison of methods using performance metrics.
We introduce a unified framework for random forest prediction error estimation based on a novel estimator of the conditional prediction error distribution function. Our framework enables simple plug-in estimation of key prediction uncertainty metrics, including conditional mean squared prediction errors, conditional bi…
New learning rates for embeddings in RKHSs, even when the target is not Hilbert-Schmidt.
problem Applying conditional mean embeddings to complex ML/RL settings with infinite-dimensional RKHSs.
method Developed novel learning rates using interpolation theory for RKHSs, derived explicit adaptive rates for sample estimator.
result Achieved uniform convergence rates in the output RKHS for certain parameter regimes.
As a crucial problem in statistics is to decide whether additional variables are needed in a regression model. We propose a new multivariate test to investigate the conditional mean independence of Y given X conditioning on some known effect Z, i.e., E(Y|X, Z) = E(Y|Z). Assuming that E(Y|Z) and Z are linearly related, …
We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is constructed using observations on a discrete time grid, and precisely it sums up t…
In this paper we derive the optimal linear shrinkage estimator for the high-dimensional mean vector using random matrix theory. The results are obtained under the assumption that both the dimension p and the sample size n tend to infinity in such a way that p/n→c∈(0,∞). Under weak conditions imposed on…