A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper develops models for asset returns based on market conditions and uses them to construct a trading policy.
We study contingent claims in a discrete-time market model where trading costs are given by convex functions and portfolios are constrained by convex sets. In addition to classical frictionless markets and markets with transaction costs or bid-ask spreads, our framework covers markets with nonlinear illiquidity effects…
FlowHFT learns adaptive trading strategies from multiple models for diverse market conditions.
This paper focuses on the stability of the non-arbitrage condition in discrete time market models when some unknown information is partially/fully incorporated into the market. Our main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, for a fixed market , we prove that the non-arbitrage condition is preserved under a m…
Proposes a method to incorporate current market conditions in VaR and stress testing.
We study a robust stochastic optimization problem in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. We show that under a lineality-type condition the problem admits a maximizer. This condition is implied by the no-arbitrage condition in models of financial markets. As a corollary, we obtain existence of an utility maximizer …
Liberalization of electricity markets has increasingly created the need for understanding the volatility and correlation structure between electricity and financial markets. This work reveals the existence of structural changes in correlation patterns among these two markets and links the changes to both fundamentals a…
Exact simulation method for market impact estimation under various execution strategies.
Optimal fees protect passive LPs in AMMs under varying market conditions.
Model approximates market prices and returns without prior market dynamics.
Polymarket users exploit mispriced assets for profit.
Uniswap -- and other constant product markets -- appear to work well in practice despite their simplicity. In this paper, we give a simple formal analysis of constant product markets and their generalizations, showing that, under some common conditions, these markets must closely track the reference market price. We al…
Market Mill is a complex dependence pattern leading to nonlinear correlations and predictability in intraday dynamics of stock prices. The present paper puts together previous efforts to build a dynamical model reflecting the market mill asymmetries. We show that certain properties of the conditional dynamics at a sing…
Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare …
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
Framework improves ETF volatility forecasting by adapting to market conditions.
The paper extends asset pricing theory by considering conditional markets.
We derive deterministic criteria for the existence and non-existence of equivalent (local) martingale measures for financial markets driven by multi-dimensional time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Our conditions can be used to construct financial markets in which the \emph{no unbounded profit with bounded risk} condition ho…
In this paper we study the effect of network structure between agents and objects on measures for systemic risk. We model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the financial or (re)insuance market by a bipartite graph. Using Pareto-tailed losses and multivariate regular variation we obtain asymptotic resu…
Model assesses loan profitability under changing credit conditions.
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. This paper proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for invest…
Paper proposes a new framework to compare trading strategies by accounting for market conditions.
Study examines financial market structure changes during the COVID-19 crash using a novel MI approach.
If the probability of default parameters (PDs) fed as input into a credit portfolio model are estimated as through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs stressed market conditions have little impact on the results of the capital calculations conducted with the model. At first glance, this is totally different if the PDs are estimated as…
We introduce Hermite fractional financial markets, where market uncertainties are described by multidimensional Hermite motions. Hermite markets include as particular cases financial markets driven by multivariate fractional Brownian motion and multivariate Rosenblatt motion. Conditions for no-arbitrage and market comp…
QLAMMP optimizes fees on AMMs using Q-Learning.
Study completes financial markets in complex models without external probabilities.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
We introduce a class of utility-based market makers that always accept orders at their risk-neutral prices. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for such market makers to have bounded loss. We prove that hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility market makers are equivalent to weighted pseudospherical scoring …
Adaptive market maker curves minimize arbitrage losses in DeFi.
The paper explores arbitrage opportunities in derivative markets under specific conditions.
Recent studies have revealed a number of striking dependence patterns in high frequency stock price dynamics characterizing probabilistic interrelation between two consequent price increments x (push) and y (response) as described by the bivariate probability distribution P(x,y) [1,2,3,4]. There are two properties, the…
This study optimizes crypto-market trading conditions without assuming convexity.
It has been understood that the "local" existence of the Markowitz' optimal portfolio or the solution to the local-risk minimization problem is guaranteed by some specific mathematical structures on the underlying assets price processes known in the literature as "{\it Structure Conditions}". In this paper, we consider…
Paper develops a continuous-time framework for financial markets without stochastic calculus.
We derive asset pricing formula for markets with incomplete information and subjective views.
This paper studies convex duality in optimal investment and contingent claim valuation in markets where traded assets may be subject to nonlinear trading costs and portfolio constraints. Under fairly general conditions, the dual expressions decompose into tree terms, corresponding to the agent's risk preferences, tradi…
This paper examines how wash traders exploit market conditions in Bitcoin, finding strategic timing and spillover effects.
The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market inconsistency rather than an inadequacy of the specific model. As a consequence, marke…
This paper investigates the time-varying risk-premium relation of the Chinese stock markets within the framework of cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the French-Fama three factor model. The evolving arbitrage opportunities are also studied by quantifying the…
Study uses MFG approach to model equilibrium pricing with market clearing condition.
HybridCGAN improves portfolio analysis by balancing trend prediction and market uncertainty.
Almost twenty years ago, E.R. Fernholz introduced portfolio generating functions which can be used to construct a variety of portfolios, solely in the terms of the individual companies' market weights. I. Karatzas and J. Ruf recently developed another methodology for the functional construction of portfolios, which lea…
RL models outperform traditional methods in certain market conditions.
Enhanced pairs trading with Black-Litterman model outperforms market indexes.
Improved market state classification for risk assessment.
Study compares costs and arbitrage in CEXs vs DEXs, finding DEXs better for large trades.
We seek to deepen understanding of the micro-foundations of institutionalization while contributing to a sociological theory of markets by investigating the puzzle of price bubbles in financial markets. We find that such markets, despite textbook conditions of high efficiency -- perfect information, atomistic agents, n…