Dynamic risk measures follow law invariance principles over time.
problem Tackles dynamic risk measurement principles.
method Shows equivalence between adapted law invariance and recursive one-step conditional-law representation for time-consistent risk measures.
result Identifies adapted law invariance as the dynamic counterpart of ordinary law invariance.
Combines noncommutative geometry and spectral theory for new Weyl laws.
problem Developing new Weyl laws for noncommutative manifolds.
method Functional analysis, spectral theory, and Tauberian conditions.
result Generalizes and simplifies recent results on Weyl laws and integration formulas.
Conservation law for weakly harmonic mappings in high dimensions.
problem Conservation law for harmonic mappings in supercritical dimensions.
method Partial extension of Rivière's conservation law with Lorentz integrability condition.
result Conservation law for weakly harmonic mappings in supercritical dimensions.
Researchers prove Weyl laws for Schrödinger operators on noncompact manifolds.
problem Proving Weyl laws for Schrödinger operators on noncompact manifolds.
method Heat kernel asymptotics, Karamata-Hardy-Littlewood Tauberian theorem, and semiclassical analysis.
result Established both classical and semiclassical Weyl laws for Schrödinger operators on noncompact manifolds.
An Atlas model is a rank-based system of continuous semimartingales for which the steady-state values of the processes follow a power law, or Pareto distribution. For a power law, the log-log plot of these steady-state values versus rank is a straight line. Zipf's law is a power law for which the slope of this line is …
The paper synthesizes the mathematics of modeling the future.
problem Modeling the future
method Unified mathematical synthesis
result Explicit connection of classical objects into a unified forecasting calculus
We use GANs and signatures to approximate conditional laws in filtering and prediction of diffusion processes.
problem Approximating conditional laws for diffusion processes with noisy observations.
method Conditional GANs combined with signatures for approximation.
result Efficient approximation of conditional laws for diffusion processes.
We simplify Volterra process predictions by reducing dimensionality and using a tailored deep learning model.
problem Predicting the conditional law of Volterra processes with stochastic volatility is challenging due to high dimensionality and non-smoothness.
method We developed a stable dimension reduction technique onto a low-dimensional statistical manifold of non-positive curvature and introduced a sequentially deep learning model tailored to this geometry.
result Our model can approximate the conditional law of Volterra processes with approximation rates achievable only with very large networks.
Theory predicts neural scaling exponents from language statistics.
problem No existing theory could quantitatively predict neural scaling exponents.
method Isolated two key statistical properties of language.
result Derives a simple formula predicting neural scaling exponents.
We summarize a book under publication with his title written by the three present authors, on the theory of Zipf's law, and more generally of power laws, driven by the mechanism of proportional growth. The preprint is available upon request from the authors. For clarity, consistence of language and conciseness, we disc…
This work improves transferability of rewards inferred from expert demonstrations.
problem Transferability of rewards inferred from expert demonstrations under limited access to the expert's policy.
method Proposed principal angles as a measure of similarity and dissimilarity between transition laws. Established sufficient conditions for transferability under limited access.
result Two key results on sufficient conditions for transferability to any and local changes in transition laws.
The paper improves conformal prediction by analyzing the beta law of conditional coverage.
problem Improving finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees for non-i.i.d. data.
method The method uses Wasserstein distances to quantify deviations from the beta law of conditional coverage.
result The framework provides direct bounds on marginal coverage gaps and bad-calibration probabilities.
The conservation laws of the third order quasilinear scalar evolution equations are considered via differential system and characteristic cohomology. We find a subspace of 2 forms in the infinite prolonged space in which every conservation law has a unique representative. The structure of this subspace naturally gives …
The study explores generalized divergences and exponential families with a focus on sufficient conditions and laws of large numbers.
problem Generalization of Kullback-Leibler divergence and exponential families.
method Investigation of (h,τ)-divergence and (h,τ)-exponential families, definition of (h,τ)-dependence, proof of law of large numbers. result Sufficient condition for (h,τ)-divergence to induce Hessian structure on (h,τ)-exponential family, proof of law of large numbers. Study on RL on volatility surfaces, proving no free lunch for law-seeking methods.
problem Aligning RL agents with no-arbitrage laws in volatile markets.
method Built a law manifold, defined penalties, and used a Goodhart decomposition.
result No free lunch theorem: Law-seeking RL cannot outperform baselines.
Critical volatility triggers log-normal to power-law transitions in interconnected systems.
problem Understanding the transition from log-normal to power-law distributions in interconnected systems.
method Analyzing an infinite option-on-option chain model, deriving a critical volatility threshold.
result A critical volatility threshold of approximately 250.66% for unconditional cases, dropping to 125.3% with selective survival.
CCVFM uses coreset to improve generative models by refining residual flows.
problem Generating multimodal distributions from scratch is challenging.
method Augments hierarchical rectified flow with a data-informed source distribution using a coreset.
result CCVFM achieves competitive few-step generation without a learned noise-to-data map.
Zipf's law states that the number of firms with size greater than S is inversely proportional to S. Most explanations start with Gibrat's rule of proportional growth but require additional constraints. We show that Gibrat's rule, at all firm levels, yields Zipf's law under a balance condition between the effective grow…
Paper proves SVV model reproduces power-law skew in implied volatilities.
problem Reproducing power-law behavior in implied volatility skew.
method Analytical proof using Malliavin calculus and Volterra kernel selection.
result SVV model reproduces power-law skew under correct kernel choice.
We show that an economic system populated by multiple agents generates an equilibrium distribution in the form of multiple scaling laws of conditional PDFs, which are sufficient for characterizing the probability distribution. The existence of the double scaling law is demonstrated empirically for the sales and the lab…
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
This work analyzes neural scaling laws using power-law data spectra and derives analytical expressions for generalization error.
problem Understanding how neural network performance scales with key factors like data size and model complexity.
method Statistical mechanics techniques applied to one-pass stochastic gradient descent in a student-teacher framework.
result Derivation of analytical expressions for generalization error under power-law data spectra and identification of conditions for power-law scaling.
We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of "conservation laws" on null hypersurfaces for the wave equation on general four-dimensional Lorentzian manifolds. Examples of null hypersurfaces exhibiting such conservation laws include the standard null cones of Minkowski spacetime and the degenerate …
By employing exhaustive lists of large firms in European countries, we show that the upper-tail of the distribution of firm size can be fitted with a power-law (Pareto-Zipf law), and that in this region the growth rate of each firm is independent of the firm's size (Gibrat's law of proportionate effect). We also find t…
Study on KRR with power-law data, showing better sample complexity.
problem High-dimensional kernel ridge regression with anisotropic power-law covariance.
method Explicit characterization of kernel spectrum and asymptotic analysis of excess risk.
result Sample complexity is governed by effective dimension, not ambient dimension.
New mechanism found for power laws including Zipf's law.
problem Understanding the ubiquity of power law distributions.
method Introduced nonlinear self-excited Hawkes processes with fast-accelerating intensities.
result Wide class of nonlinear Hawkes processes have power law intensity PDFs.
Logistic regression gets a new, simpler uniform bound.
problem Finding a uniform bound for logistic regression's empirical risk.
method PAC-Bayes approach with second-order expansion and Rademacher-complexity bounds.
result Provides a dimension-free uniform concentration bound.
Early fault detection using instrumented sensor data is one of the promising application areas of machine learning in industrial facilities. However, it is difficult to improve the generalization performance of the trained fault-detection model because of the complex system configuration in the target diagnostic system…
LatentFlow simplifies conditioning of stochastic processes without training.
problem Intractable conditional laws for complex stochastic models.
method Writing stochastic process as latent innovation, reducing conditioning to latent-space inference.
result Exact conditional sampling across various model classes.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
New principles for collapsing law-invariant functionals to means, extending beyond convexity.
problem Conditions for law-invariant functionals to reduce to means.
method Establishing collapse to the mean principles for non-convex functionals.
result General principles apply beyond convexity, including quasiconvex and Choquet integrals.
Study non-integer power-law potentials for Schrödinger operators using Lie-Rinehart algebras.
problem Analyzing Schrödinger operators with non-integer power-law potentials.
method Using Lie-Rinehart algebras and microlocal analysis.
result Microlocal analysis can be applied to Schrödinger operators with non-integer power-law potentials.
Modeling financial returns as conditionally independent random variables explains power-law tails.
problem Understanding the distribution of financial returns and their relation to volatility.
method Assuming returns are conditionally independent given volatility, which varies randomly over time.
result Returns distribution can be described by the sum of conditionally independent random variables, showing scaling and power-law tails.
New criterion for Weyl law on Riemannian manifolds without standard assumptions.
problem Establishing Weyl law for Schrödinger operators on complete Riemannian manifolds.
method Identifying a geometric-analytic invariant cδ(λ) that balances manifold geometry, potential growth, and oscillation scale. result Weyl asymptotic holds if cδ(λ) approaches 0 as λ goes to infinity. Generalizes Fermat's principle for wave propagation in cone structures.
problem Wave propagation in complex media with discontinuities and anisotropy.
method Generalizes Fermat's principle to smooth interfaces separating two cone structures representing wave propagation in various media.
result Conditions for critical points of arrival time functional, generalizing Snell's law and reflection.
We develop a new framework of uncertainty variables to model uncertainty. An uncertainty variable is characterized by an uncertainty set, in which its realization is bound to lie, while the conditional uncertainty is characterized by a set map, from a given realization of a variable to a set of possible realizations of…
The paper distinguishes between conditional and marginal processes in language models and discusses conditions for usefulness.
problem The conditional nature of language models trained on observed sequences and the need for marginal text-only processes.
method Distinguishing between full conditional language process, marginal text-only process, and model-induced distribution; analyzing assumptions of stationarity and ergodicity.
result The marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation.
We consider conditional-mean hedging in a fractional Black-Scholes pricing model in the presence of proportional transaction costs. We develop an explicit formula for the conditional-mean hedging portfolio in terms of the recently discovered explicit conditional law of the fractional Brownian motion.
We study the regular conditional law of mixed Gaussian Volterra processes under the influence of model disturbances. More precisely, we study prediction of Gaussian Volterra processes driven by a Brownian motion in a case where the Brownian motion is not observable, but only a noisy version is observed. As an applicati…
New insights into model robustness for random features and NTK models.
problem Understanding and distinguishing robustness in machine learning models.
method Analyzing empirical risk minimization in random features and NTK models.
result Random features models are not robust under any degree of over-parameterization, even when satisfying the universal law of robustness.
The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative ba…
Trimming helps in conformal prediction when it separates anomaly scores.
problem Effectiveness of trimming in conformal prediction under contamination.
method Analyse fixed-threshold trimming as a replacement of the contaminated calibration law with a retained law.
result Trimming helps when it separates anomaly scores, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem.
A new law limits kurtosis contrast in balanced mixtures.
problem Kurtosis-based ICA fails in wide, balanced mixtures.
method Proved a redundancy law and showed purification restores contrast.
result Kurtosis contrast obeys O(κmax/Reff) in balanced mixtures. This work investigates power laws in deep neural network ensembles and predicts their performance.
problem Understanding the performance of deep neural network ensembles and their optimal structure.
method Investigated the behavior of negative log-likelihood (CNLL) of a deep ensemble as a function of ensemble size and member network size, identifying power law dependencies.
result One large network may perform worse than an ensemble of several medium-size networks, known as a memory split.
We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure as introduced Hoffmann et al. (2016). Further, in analogy to the univariate cas…
This paper improves the robustness of risk estimation for financial positions.
problem Ensuring robustness of risk measures in the presence of data noise.
method Proposes a quantitative approach using the Fortet-Mourier metric to quantify the variation of true probability measures.
result Derives explicit error bounds for discrepancies between laws of estimators based on true and perturbed data.
Optimizer choice affects neural scaling laws, changing the exponent α.
problem The exponent α in neural scaling laws L(N)∝N−α varies with the optimizer used. method Controlled random-feature regression experiments with five optimizer variants and six spectral conditions.
result Preconditioned optimizers yield steeper scaling (larger α), with the α-shift increasing across most of the tested spectral range. Discover conservation laws from trajectories using a neural network.
problem Finding invariants and conservation laws from large-scale data without prior knowledge.
method ConservNet, a neural network trained with noise-variance loss to discover hidden invariants in grouped multi-dimensional observables.
result Successfully discovers underlying invariants from simulated and real-world systems.