A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
Investigates conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
New method improves simulation efficiency in high dimensions.
In this note we derive the backward (automatic) differentiation (adjoint [automatic] differentiation) for an algorithm containing a conditional expectation operator. As an example we consider the backward algorithm as it is used in Bermudan product valuation, but the method is applicable in full generality. The method …
Many problems in financial engineering involve the estimation of unknown conditional expectations across a time interval. Often Least Squares Monte Carlo techniques are used for the estimation. One method that can be combined with Least Squares Monte Carlo is the "Regress-Later" method. Unlike conventional methods wher…
We consider stochastic gradient descent and its averaging variant for binary classification problems in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. In the traditional analysis using a consistency property of loss functions, it is known that the expected classification error converges more slowly than the expected risk even whe…
New method solves complex optimization problems with real-time learning.
Develops methods to estimate ratios of conditional expectation functions.
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail Expectation describes the expected amount of risk that can be experienced given …
The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
This paper provides mathematical foundations for regression methods used in forward initial margin approximation.
SGD converges to global minimum for structured non-convex functions.
A new algorithm optimizes unknown functions with noisy data and unmatched features.
A general Boltzmann machine with continuous visible and discrete integer valued hidden states is introduced. Under mild assumptions about the connection matrices, the probability density function of the visible units can be solved for analytically, yielding a novel parametric density function involving a ratio of Riema…
We provide a dual representation of quasiconvex maps between two lattices of random variables in terms of conditional expectations. This generalizes the dual representation of quasiconvex real valued functions and the dual representation of conditional convex maps.
Study examines insurance demand under ambiguity aversion.
Bayesian optimal design of experiments (BODE) has been successful in acquiring information about a quantity of interest (QoI) which depends on a black-box function. BODE is characterized by sequentially querying the function at specific designs selected by an infill-sampling criterion. However, most current BODE method…
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
CAESar improves risk forecasting by combining VaR and ES estimates.
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional distributions which cannot be meaningfully summarized using expectation only (due to e…
Research provides explicit NPV expressions for double barrier strategies.
This note shows how to transform high-probability to in-expectation guarantees in machine learning.
Asynchronous Gibbs sampling has been recently shown to be fast-mixing and an accurate method for estimating probabilities of events on a small number of variables of a graphical model satisfying Dobrushin's condition~\cite{DeSaOR16}. We investigate whether it can be used to accurately estimate expectations of functions…
Study on critical points in random neural networks, revealing three regimes based on activation function.
Researchers explore gauge freedom in entropies of -Gaussian measures.
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed stock price return as a function of the return and time. The behavior of this fu…
fCBO optimizes interventions in causal graphs using Gaussian processes.
The paper generalizes Feynman-Kac formula for volatility uncertainty.
Proposes a method for approximating transition densities of SDEs driven by gamma processes.
A non-Euclidean generalization of conditional expectation is introduced and characterized as the minimizer of expected intrinsic squared-distance from a manifold-valued target. The computational tractable formulation expresses the non-convex optimization problem as transformations of Euclidean conditional expectation. …
Paper develops methods for inference on time series data using neural networks and sieves.
Proposes data-driven methods for estimating conditional expectations.
The paper tackles singularities in diffusion models on submanifolds.
Deep learning improves probabilistic PPDE solution accuracy.
In this paper we study a robust expected utility maximization problem with random endowment in discrete time. We give conditions under which an optimal strategy exists and derive a dual representation for the optimal utility. Our approach is based on a general representation result for monotone convex functionals, a fu…
New unbiased gradient estimators for complex optimization problems.
We consider the value function originating from an expected utility maximization problem with finite fuel constraint and show its close relation to a nonlinear parabolic degenerated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with singularity. On one hand, we give a so-called verification argument based on the dynamic progr…
A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a …
Novel boundary conditions for Ricci flow to deform compact manifolds.
For a linear combination of random variables, fix some confidence level and consider the quantile of the combination at this level. We are interested in the partial derivatives of the quantile with respect to the weights of the random variables in the combination. It turns out that under suitable conditions on the join…
Paper tackles conditional expectation estimation using compactification operators.
In this paper we investigate the expected terminal utility maximization approach for a dynamic stochastic portfolio optimization problem. We solve it numerically by solving an evolutionary Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is transformed by means of the Riccati transformation. We examine the dependence of the resu…
Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, i…
A contaminated mixture model detects outliers in multivariate functional data.
We introduce a new notion of conditional nonlinear expectation under probability distortion. Such a distorted nonlinear expectation is not sub-additive in general, so it is beyond the scope of Peng's framework of nonlinear expectations. A more fundamental problem when extending the distorted expectation to a dynamic se…
Study calculates tail risk for various mixture distributions.