CSI method learns conditional distributions by estimating flow equations.
problem Learning conditional distributions in generative models.
method Estimates probability flow equations to transport reference to target distribution.
result Derives explicit expressions for conditional drift and score functions.
Method learns conditional distributions using neural entropic optimal transport.
problem Challenges in learning multiple conditional distributions.
method Neural entropic optimal transport method with two networks and regularization.
result Effective learning of conditional distributions with limited samples.
The paper uses Fourier integral theorem for estimating multivariate distributions.
problem Estimating multivariate distributions and conditional distribution functions.
method Natural Monte Carlo and fully nonparametric estimators based on Fourier integral theorem.
result Explicit Monte Carlo estimators without estimated covariance matrix.
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
Unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning.
problem Nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning problems.
method Generative learning framework with deep neural networks to estimate a conditional generator.
result The approach estimates a regression function and a conditional generator simultaneously, providing good prediction intervals.
Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of cond…
Proposes a new method to analyze the distributional effects of treatments.
problem Analyzing the full distributional impact of treatments beyond just the mean.
method Uses kernel conditional mean embeddings and U-statistic regression to investigate the CoDiTE.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method through experiments.
Estimates conditional distribution function using neural networks for censored and uncensored data.
problem Estimating conditional distribution function for censored and uncensored data.
method Neural network algorithm based on Cox regression with time-dependent covariates, using full likelihood with unconstrained optimization.
result Proposed method yields more accurate estimates than existing methods when model assumptions are violated.
A new method learns continuous guidance weights to improve diffusion model quality and distributional alignment.
problem Improving perceptual quality and distributional alignment of samples from conditional diffusion models.
method Learned continuous guidance weights ωc,(s,t) are used to minimize distributional mismatch and reward guided sampling. result Improvements in Fréchet inception distance (FID) for image generation and better image-prompt alignment in text-to-image applications.
New estimator adapts to various error distributions.
problem Adapting to different error distributions in nonparametric regression.
method Introduces outrigger local polynomial estimator with modified weighted least squares.
result Minimax optimal over Hölder classes with multiplicative factor.
New tests for binary classification regression functions without distribution assumptions.
problem Testing regression functions in binary classification without distributional assumptions.
method Conditional kernel mean embeddings and resampling-based framework.
result Distribution-free hypothesis tests with exact type I error control.
Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution function of the returns. We derive this distribution function using for C(K) a Black-Sc…
The paper simulates Lévy processes and their extremum and hitting time.
problem Simulating Lévy processes and their extremum and hitting time accurately and efficiently.
method Using characteristic functions and conditional characteristic functions, with conformal deformations and precalculated values on multi-grids.
result Accurate and fast simulation of Lévy processes and their extremum and hitting time.
A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.
problem Computing fractional moments from probability densities.
method Integral framework based on moment-generating function.
result Exact integral expressions for various types of moments.
Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and visualisation. Information about the whole underlying conditional distribution is, h…
Neural Processes (NPs) (Garnelo et al 2018a;b) approach regression by learning to map a context set of observed input-output pairs to a distribution over regression functions. Each function models the distribution of the output given an input, conditioned on the context. NPs have the benefit of fitting observed data ef…
A main goal of regression is to derive statistical conclusions on the conditional distribution of the output variable Y given the input values x. Two of the most important characteristics of a single distribution are location and scale. Support vector machines (SVMs) are well established to estimate location functions …
We introduce the Neural Conditioner (NC), a self-supervised machine able to learn about all the conditional distributions of a random vector X. The NC is a function NC(x⋅a,a,r) that leverages adversarial training to match each conditional distribution P(Xr∣Xa=xa). After training, the NC generalizes to …
The conditional mutual information I(X;Y|Z) measures the average information that X and Y contain about each other given Z. This is an important primitive in many learning problems including conditional independence testing, graphical model inference, causal strength estimation and time-series problems. In several appl…
Paper proposes a pre-conditioning method to speed up gradient descent in multi-agent optimization.
problem Speed up convergence of gradient descent in multi-agent optimization problems.
method Iterative pre-conditioning approach to mitigate the effect of problem conditioning.
result Significant improvement in convergence speed of gradient descent method.
The paper derives risk measures for metalog distributions.
problem Deriving risk measures for metalog distributions.
method Closed-form expressions for Conditional Value at Risk and first-order partial moments.
result First-order partial moments are convex with respect to metalog parameters.
We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is expanded from a set of fixed quantiles to the whole Quantile Function by a univar…
New algorithms improve distributed optimization under mild variance conditions.
problem Improving distributed optimization for large-scale machine learning problems.
method Revisited Federated Averaging and SCAFFOLD algorithms under a general variance condition.
result Established convergence results for smooth nonconvex objective functions under mild variance conditions.
Improving Bayesian Optimization via Training-Aware Conditional Diffusion Models
problem Bayesian Optimization
method Bayesian Optimization with Conditional Diffusion Models
result DMS outperforms standard BO baselines
Paper tackles functional linear regression using spectral algorithms with discrete observations.
problem Functional linear regression problem with discretely observed data.
method Combines distributed spectral algorithms with Sobolev kernels for regularization.
result Derives matching upper and lower bounds for convergence in Sobolev norm.
Paper justifies ideal point forecasts as measurable, clarifying conditions for their existence.
problem Justifying ideal point forecasts as measurable random variables.
method Clarifying and establishing measurability conditions for a wide class of functionals.
result Ideal point forecasts are shown to be measurable, providing theoretical justification.
We present a simple generative framework for learning to predict previously unseen classes, based on estimating class-attribute-gated class-conditional distributions. We model each class-conditional distribution as an exponential family distribution and the parameters of the distribution of each seen/unseen class are d…
The most direct way to express arbitrary dependencies in datasets is to estimate the joint distribution and to apply afterwards the argmax-function to obtain the mode of the corresponding conditional distribution. This method is in practice difficult, because it requires a global optimization of a complicated function,…
New recursive algorithm estimates conditional kernel mean embeddings in Hilbert space.
problem Estimating conditional distributions in RKHS for supervised learning.
method Recursive algorithm in L2 space for conditional kernel mean map. result Strong L2 consistency of recursive estimator proved. The paper examines conditions for linearity in a conditional mean estimator under vector Poisson noise.
problem Conditions for linearity of the conditional mean estimator in vector Poisson noise.
method Analyzes prior distributions and their impact on the conditional mean estimator's linearity.
result The only prior distribution that induces linearity is a product gamma distribution, and non-zero dark current parameter prevents linearity.
Develops hypothesis tests for conditional distributions using learning-theoretic bounds.
problem Testing differences in conditional distributions and functionals.
method Transforming learning-theoretic bounds into hypothesis tests for conditional expectations.
result Establishes comprehensive foundation for conditional testing, including theoretical guarantees and practical implementations.
Study learns a neuron with non-monotonic activation functions.
problem Learning a single neuron with non-monotonic activation functions.
method Gradient descent (GD) with conditions on activation function and input distribution.
result Learnability of non-monotonic activation functions is established without monotonicity assumption.
We consider supervised dimension reduction problems, namely to identify a low dimensional projection of the predictors $\-x$ which can retain the statistical relationship between $\-x$ and the response variable y. We follow the idea of the sliced inverse regression (SIR) and the sliced average variance estimation (SA…
This paper explores conditions for neural networks to extrapolate to new domains.
problem Understanding when neural networks can extrapolate to unseen domains.
method Analyzes conditions for nonlinear models to extrapolate under specific distribution shifts.
result Neural networks of the form f(x)=∑fi(xi) can extrapolate if feature covariance is well-conditioned. IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
Proposes a new method for data assimilation using closed-form conditional diffusion models.
problem Data assimilation for systems with complex, non-Gaussian probability distributions.
method Uses kernel density estimation to model joint distributions and leverages the score function for efficient evaluation.
result Outperforms ensemble Kalman and particle filters in nonlinear data assimilation problems.
We introduce a unified framework for random forest prediction error estimation based on a novel estimator of the conditional prediction error distribution function. Our framework enables simple plug-in estimation of key prediction uncertainty metrics, including conditional mean squared prediction errors, conditional bi…
This paper accelerates distributed convex optimization by mitigating ill-conditioning issues.
problem Distributed convex optimization with ill-conditioned aggregate cost functions.
method Iterative pre-conditioning technique to improve convergence rate and stability.
result The proposed algorithm converges linearly with improved convergence rate and superlinearly under certain conditions.
Bayesian model for discrete data with conditional transformations.
problem Handling discrete ordinal and count data with excess zeros.
method Bayesian framework with conditional transformation functions and modular MCMC algorithm.
result Flexible modeling of linear and nonlinear covariate effects for ordinal and count data.
Many machine learning tasks, such as learning with invariance and policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, can be characterized as problems of learning from conditional distributions. In such problems, each sample x itself is associated with a conditional distribution p(z∣x) represented by samples $\{z_i\}_{i=1…
A new algorithm optimizes unknown functions with noisy data and unmatched features.
problem Sequentially maximizing a function with unknown and noisy data and features not under control.
method Bayesian conditional mean embedding and Gaussian process for uncertainty.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms.
COS method convergence conditions expanded for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Ensuring convergence of the COS method for various densities.
method Analyzing truncation error and providing conditions for convergence.
result Conditions for COS method convergence extended to include heavy-tailed distributions.
A method uses neural networks to approximate sampling distributions of test statistics.
problem Accurate modeling of p-value functions or cdfs for correct confidence set coverage.
method Uses neural networks to model the cdf of test statistics, approximating sampling distributions.
result Neural network approximations of sampling distributions are effective and simple.
New offline RL study shows exponential sample requirement for accurate policy evaluation.
problem Understanding statistical limits of offline RL with linear function approximation.
method Analyzes necessary representational and distributional conditions for sample-efficient offline reinforcement learning.
result Even with realizability and good feature coverage, offline RL requires exponential samples for accurate policy evaluation.
Deep conditional transformation models unify interpretable and complex predictors.
problem Challenging to learn conditional CDFs in high-dimensional settings.
method Unified deep learning framework for interpretable and complex predictors.
result Efficacy demonstrated through numerical experiments and applications.
This article reviews and compares various methods for estimating conditional distributions.
problem Inference of conditional distributions in statistics.
method Classical nonparametric methods and modern generative models.
result A systematic numerical comparison of methods using performance metrics.
We propose a new Integral Probability Metric (IPM) between distributions: the Sobolev IPM. The Sobolev IPM compares the mean discrepancy of two distributions for functions (critic) restricted to a Sobolev ball defined with respect to a dominant measure μ. We show that the Sobolev IPM compares two distributions in hig…
We consider a multi-armed bandit problem with covariates. Given a realization of the covariate vector, instead of targeting the treatment with highest conditional expectation, the decision maker targets the treatment which maximizes a general functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution, e.g., a conditi…