Proposes CCME framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex distributions.
method Embeds conditional distributions into RKHS, develops meta-estimators for CCME.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates and double robustness for CCME estimators.
Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as counterfactual distributions -- is crucial for the success of these applications. In …
CPME embeds counterfactual outcomes in RKHS for flexible policy evaluation.
problem Estimating counterfactual policy outcomes for decision-making.
method Counterfactual Policy Mean Embedding (CPME) framework in RKHS, plug-in and doubly robust estimators, kernel test statistic.
result Doubly robust estimator improves convergence rates and asymptotic normality.
Bayesian approach for modeling counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
problem Modeling the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
method Bayesian conditional mean embeddings and novel Bayesian methods for estimating ultimate treatment effect.
result Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
New method for estimating counterfactual means in adaptive experiments.
problem Inference for counterfactual means in sequentially designed experiments with adaptive treatment policies.
method Latent factor model and nearest neighbors method for estimation.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for counterfactual means established.
Method for explaining machine learning survival models using counterfactuals.
problem Tackles the challenge of explaining survival models in machine learning.
method Introduces a condition based on the difference of mean times to event for counterfactual explanation. Reduces the problem to a convex optimization problem for Cox models and applies Particle Swarm Optimization for other models.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.
Efficient estimators for smooth Hilbert-valued parameters with theoretical guarantees.
problem Estimating smooth Hilbert-valued parameters with theoretical guarantees.
method Pathwise differentiable Hilbert-valued parameters, efficient influence functions, regularized one-step estimators.
result Theoretical guarantees for efficient estimators even when nuisance functions are arbitrary.
New measure captures differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
problem Capturing differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
method Entropic optimal transport measure, statistical functional, smooth transformation of embeddings.
result Established first-order and second-order pathwise differentiability.
The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to biases implicitly embedded in observational data in electronic health records. To …
The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.
problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.
Algorithm simulates counterfactuals for fairness analysis.
problem Analytical intractability of counterfactuals in conditional distributions.
method Proposes an algorithm using particle filtering for discrete and continuous variables.
result Asymptotically valid inference for counterfactuals.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
New method neutralizes gender bias in word embeddings without losing semantic information.
problem Gender biases in word embeddings trained on human-generated corpora.
method Latent Disentanglement and Counterfactual Generation with siamese auto-encoder and gradient reversal layer.
result Our method outperforms existing debiasing methods in preserving semantic information and neutralizing gender biases.
The paper tackles counterfactual learning for stochastic policies with continuous actions.
problem Learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from logged data.
method Introduces a joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions to model continuous actions, and uses proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for optimization.
result Demonstrates the benefits of using proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for counterfactual learning.
Proposes Exogenous Matching for efficient counterfactual estimation.
problem Efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings.
method Transforms variance minimization into conditional distribution learning.
result Outperforms other importance sampling methods in counterfactual estimation.
A new method generates counterfactual treatment outcomes for time-varying treatments.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes for time-varying treatments with high-dimensional outcomes.
method Conditional generative framework with inverse probability re-weighting.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating high-quality counterfactual samples.
We offer a new, rigorous approach to conditional mean embeddings without operator constraints.
problem Lack of rigorous, operator-free approach to conditional mean embeddings.
method Measure-theoretic approach to conditional mean embeddings.
result Natural regression interpretation and universal consistency of empirical estimates.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
problem Passive generative models cannot explore hypothetical market scenarios.
method Regime-conditioned diffusion model for counterfactual LOB generation.
result DiffLOB enables realistic and controllable generation of LOB trajectories.
Estimates sample size for subgroup analysis in randomized experiments.
problem Determining sample size for accurate subgroup analysis.
method Turns inference problem into simultaneous inference, calculates sample size based on confidence level and margin of error.
result Allows inversion of sample size to feasible number of treatment arms or partition complexity.
Paper proposes a modified fairness constraint to address shortcomings of counterfactual fairness.
problem Counterfactual fairness is not a necessary condition for algorithmic fairness.
method Analyzed hypothetical scenario and explicated discrimination to develop causal relevance fairness.
result Causal relevance fairness is a modified constraint that circumvents shortcomings of counterfactual fairness.
Generative models explain machine learning predictions with counterfactual instances.
problem Generating human-interpretable insights into machine learning model predictions.
method Sparse counterfactual explanations using conditional generative models.
result Single forward pass generates batches of counterfactual instances.
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
Develops algorithm to make fair decisions from biased data.
problem Ethical concerns in machine learning fairness.
method Fair Learning through Data Preprocessing (FLAP) algorithm.
result Counterfactual fairness equivalent to conditional independence.
We identify causal models with unobserved confounding using bijective generation mechanisms.
problem Identifying causal relationships with unobserved confounders.
method Establish counterfactual identifiability for BGMs and propose a learning method.
result Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation.
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.
problem Challenges in estimating individual outcomes under different treatments.
method Deep variational Bayesian framework integrating factual and similar subjects' outcomes.
result Rigorously integrates individual features and similar subjects' responses for counterfactual outcomes.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
problem Challenges to conventional counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
method Formalizes a backtracking approach to counterfactuals within the SCM framework.
result First general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals.
Proposes Deep LTMLE for estimating dynamic treatment effects in longitudinal studies.
problem Estimating counterfactual mean outcomes under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal settings.
method Uses a transformer architecture with temporal-difference learning for initial estimation, followed by TMLE correction and statistical inference.
result Demonstrates superior performance in complex, long-term scenarios compared to existing methods.
We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.
problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.
New recursive algorithm estimates conditional kernel mean embeddings in Hilbert space.
problem Estimating conditional distributions in RKHS for supervised learning.
method Recursive algorithm in L2 space for conditional kernel mean map. result Strong L2 consistency of recursive estimator proved. The paper introduces a DRM for causal inference, offering a flexible method to analyze counterfactual distributions.
problem Estimating mean causal effects is limited; a distributional perspective is needed for a more thorough understanding.
method The paper employs a semiparametric density ratio model (DRM) with an empirical likelihood (EL) approach to estimate counterfactual distribution functions.
result The DRM framework enables direct and transparent causal inference from a distributional perspective, validated by numerical studies.
New method improves counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes.
problem Counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes with concentrated structure.
method Geometry-adaptive diffusion-guided smoothing estimators combining causal nuisance adjustment and local outcome geometry.
result Geometry-adaptive methods show steeper error decay in semi-synthetic experiments.
New learning rates for embeddings in RKHSs, even when the target is not Hilbert-Schmidt.
problem Applying conditional mean embeddings to complex ML/RL settings with infinite-dimensional RKHSs.
method Developed novel learning rates using interpolation theory for RKHSs, derived explicit adaptive rates for sample estimator.
result Achieved uniform convergence rates in the output RKHS for certain parameter regimes.
Conditional kernel mean embeddings form an attractive nonparametric framework for representing conditional means of functions, describing the observation processes for many complex models. However, the recovery of the original underlying function of interest whose conditional mean was observed is a challenging inferenc…
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
The paper tackles spurious correlations in machine learning models and introduces counterfactual invariance.
problem Spurious correlations in machine learning models that depend on irrelevant parts of input data.
method The paper uses causal inference to stress test models and introduces counterfactual invariance as a formal requirement.
result Counterfactual invariance is a requirement for models to be robust to irrelevant perturbations in input data.
Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to 'low risk'. Previous approaches often emphasized that counterfactuals should be…
Paper develops a unified framework for measuring differences between conditional distributions.
problem Comparing conditional distributions in a unified and theoretically sound manner.
method Kernel embeddings and conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) framework.
result Established a coherent framework for measuring divergence between conditional distributions.
Proposes minimal interventions over counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse.
problem Lack of actionable recommendations for algorithmic recourse.
method Causal reasoning to shift focus from explanations to recommendations.
result Minimal interventions provide more actionable recommendations for recourse.
New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.
problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.
New tests for distributional causal effects using improved kernel estimators.
problem Testing for higher-order moments and multidimensional outcomes affected by treatment.
method Improved kernel estimators based on doubly robust mean embeddings.
result New permutation-based tests for distributional causal effects with improved convergence rates.
This paper tackles confounding biases in data augmentation.
problem Mitigating spurious correlations and confounding variables in training data.
method Formal analysis and counterfactual data augmentation.
result Removing confounding biases leads to invariant features and better generalization.
This paper introduces collective counterfactual explanations for groups of instances in classification models.
problem Understanding how classification models make decisions for groups of instances.
method Novel Mathematical Optimization models to find collective counterfactual explanations that minimize total perturbation cost.
result Detects critical features for entire dataset classification and handles outliers.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
problem Limitations of traditional counterfactual reasoning in AI systems.
method Backtracking counterfactual approach instead of interventional.
result Allows addressing social concerns without demographic interventions.
Networks are powerful data structures, but are challenging to work with for conventional machine learning methods. Network Embedding (NE) methods attempt to resolve this by learning vector representations for the nodes, for subsequent use in downstream machine learning tasks. Link Prediction (LP) is one such downstream…
Conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) have proven themselves to be a powerful tool in many machine learning applications. They allow the efficient conditioning of probability distributions within the corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) by providing a linear-algebraic relation for the kernel mean embedd…
We consider mean-convex Alexandrov embedded surfaces in the round unit 3-sphere, and show under which conditions it is possible to continuously deform these preserving mean-convex Alexandrov embeddedness.
The paper connects counterfactual fairness to robust prediction and group fairness using causal context.
problem The challenge of ensuring fairness in AI systems when counterfactuals cannot be directly observed.
method Using causal context to bridge counterfactual fairness, robust prediction, and group fairness.
result Counterfactual fairness is equivalent to group fairness metrics in specific contexts.
Develops methods to answer counterfactual questions in temporal point processes.
problem Lack of counterfactual analysis in temporal point process models.
method Causal model of thinning based on Gumbel-Max structural causal model, superposition theorem, and sampling algorithm.
result Simulation of counterfactual realizations provides valuable insights for targeted interventions.