A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This work shows that Gaussian is the only prior for optimal linear estimation in L1 loss.
problem Optimal linear estimation of a random variable from noisy observations under L1 fidelity criterion.
method Analyzes the conditions under which the conditional median is a linear estimator and identifies the Gaussian distribution as the only prior that induces linearity.
result Gaussian is the only prior distribution that induces linearity in the conditional median for L1 loss.
This paper considers inference over distributed linear Gaussian models using factor graphs and Gaussian belief propagation (BP). The distributed inference algorithm involves only local computation of the information matrix and of the mean vector, and message passing between neighbors. Under broad conditions, it is show…
FlowSDR learns a low-dimensional projection preserving the response's conditional distribution.
problem Learning a low-dimensional projection that captures the response's conditional distribution.
method FlowSDR uses conditional log-likelihood maximization with monotone rational-quadratic spline flows to learn the projection and conditional density.
result FlowSDR outperforms existing SDR methods in various simulation settings and a face-age prediction task.
Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model complexity, representational capacity and overfitting. In this work, we propose …
Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.
problem Need for models with fat tails and computational tractability.
method Represent elliptical distributions as continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions, derive closed-form expressions for marginal and conditional distributions.
result Elliptical processes offer advantages in robust regression compared to Gaussian processes.
Knowing when a graphical model is perfect to a distribution is essential in order to relate separation in the graph to conditional independence in the distribution, and this is particularly important when performing inference from data. When the model is perfect, there is a one-to-one correspondence between conditional…
Researchers disrupt Gaussian model inference to test adversarial attacks.
problem Disrupting conditional inference in multivariate Gaussian models under adversarial conditions.
method Considered white- and grey-box settings with complete and incomplete knowledge of the Gaussian distribution, respectively. Reduced to quadratic and stochastic quadratic programs. Derived structural properties for solution methods.
result Demonstrated the impact and efficacy of attacks in various applications, including real estate evaluation, interest rate estimation, and signals processing.
This paper addresses the problem of scalable optimization for L1-regularized conditional Gaussian graphical models. Conditional Gaussian graphical models generalize the well-known Gaussian graphical models to conditional distributions to model the output network influenced by conditioning input variables. While highly …
Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By design, ancestral graphs encode precisely the conditional independence structures t…
The analysis of observed conditional distributions of both lagged and simultaneous intraday price increments of a basket of stocks reveals phenomena of dependence - induced volatility smile and kurtosis reduction. A model based on multivariate t-Student distribution shows that the observed effects are caused by colelct…
We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…
We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the functional relationship between the task variables and the parameters of this con…