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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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223446668891 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for conditional Gaussian distribution

A new method combines Gaussian graphical models for better distributed Gaussian process predictions.

problem Poor results from traditional DGP due to violated conditional independence assumption.
method Proposes using Gaussian graphical models to aggregate local predictions from subsets of data.
result Our method outperforms other state-of-the-art DGP approaches on both synthetic and real datasets.

This work shows that Gaussian is the only prior for optimal linear estimation in L1L^1 loss.

problem Optimal linear estimation of a random variable from noisy observations under L1L^1 fidelity criterion.
method Analyzes the conditions under which the conditional median is a linear estimator and identifies the Gaussian distribution as the only prior that induces linearity.
result Gaussian is the only prior distribution that induces linearity in the conditional median for L1L^1 loss.

GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.

problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Conditional diffusion models can approximate target distributions well with Gaussian-mixture reverse kernels.

problem Approximating target distributions in conditional diffusion models.
method Using finite Gaussian mixtures with ReLU-network logits as reverse kernels, reducing the problem to static conditional density approximation.
result The resulting neural reverse-kernel class is dense in conditional KL divergence under exact terminal matching.

The paper shows how to infer conditional independence from non-Gaussian data.

problem Inferring conditional independence from non-Gaussian distributions.
method Developed a method to recover conditional independence structure from the precision matrix of generalized nonparanormal data.
result The conditional independence structure can be inferred from the precision matrix of generalized nonparanormal data.

This work introduces efficient sampling methods for Gaussian processes by focusing on pathwise conditioning.

problem Intractable mathematical expressions in Gaussian process posteriors limit practical applications.
method Investigates a pathwise interpretation of conditioning to derive efficient sampling methods.
result Derives a general family of approximations that allow for efficient sampling of Gaussian process posteriors.

Paper explores exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs using Gaussian and exponential distributions.

problem Exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs with Gaussian and exponential distributions.
method Introduces a new semi-metric to describe conditions for exact recovery and analyzes conditions for both complete and incomplete graphs.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact recovery are asymptotically tight and applicable to both complete and incomplete graphs.

Study selective classification with halfspaces, achieving error bounds under Gaussian distributions.

problem Modeling relationships in subsets of data defined by selection rules.
method Sparse linear classifiers for subsets defined by halfspaces, focusing on Gaussian feature distributions.
result First PAC-learning algorithm for homogeneous halfspace selectors with error guarantee $\bigO*{\sqrt{\mathrm{opt}}}$.

FlowSDR learns a low-dimensional projection preserving the response's conditional distribution.

problem Learning a low-dimensional projection that captures the response's conditional distribution.
method FlowSDR uses conditional log-likelihood maximization with monotone rational-quadratic spline flows to learn the projection and conditional density.
result FlowSDR outperforms existing SDR methods in various simulation settings and a face-age prediction task.

TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.

problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.

We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks.

problem Understanding the behavior of convolutional neural networks in the infinite-channel limit.
method We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks under Gaussian prior and posterior distributions.
result We provide a large deviation principle for the sequence of conditional covariance matrices and the posterior distribution.

GP-ConvCNP improves NP models for time series data by adding Gaussian Process.

problem GP-ConvCNP addresses the lack of generalization and robustness in ConvCNP models for time series data.
method GP-ConvCNP incorporates a Gaussian Process to improve ConvCNP's performance and generalization.
result GP-ConvCNP models show improved generalization and robustness to distribution shifts and future extrapolation.

Deep neural networks converge to Gaussian mixtures as layer width increases.

problem Understanding the distribution of outputs from deep neural networks.
method Proof and experiments with a simple model showing the convergence of neural network outputs to Gaussian mixtures.
result Neural networks converge to Gaussian mixtures as the width of the last hidden layer increases.

HTFM improves mode coverage and tail-statistic recovery for heavy-tailed data.

problem Tackles heavy-tailed data in various domains with rare events.
method Proposes a framework using clock-conditioned Gaussian sources and truncated logsignature features.
result Improves mode coverage, sample quality, and tail-statistic recovery over Gaussian flow matching and baselines.

Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.

problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.

Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model complexity, representational capacity and overfitting. In this work, we propose …

2018-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficiently learns Gaussian tree models with near-optimal sample complexity.

problem Learning tree-structured Gaussian distributions efficiently.
method Conditional mutual information tester for Gaussian variables, near-optimal sample complexity.
result Near-optimal sample complexity for structure learning of Gaussian tree models.

Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.

problem Need for models with fat tails and computational tractability.
method Represent elliptical distributions as continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions, derive closed-form expressions for marginal and conditional distributions.
result Elliptical processes offer advantages in robust regression compared to Gaussian processes.

New SQ lower bounds for NGCA without requiring chi-squared condition.

problem Proving SQ hardness for NGCA under moment-matching conditions.
method General SQ lower bound methodology applied to NGCA under moment-matching conditions.
result Proved near-optimal SQ lower bounds for NGCA without chi-squared condition.

MD-CGAN models forecast time series with probabilistic posterior distributions.

problem Limited applications of GANs in time series forecasting, especially with probabilistic predictions.
method Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN) using Gaussian mixture output.
result MD-CGAN outperforms benchmarks, especially in noisy time series.

Knowing when a graphical model is perfect to a distribution is essential in order to relate separation in the graph to conditional independence in the distribution, and this is particularly important when performing inference from data. When the model is perfect, there is a one-to-one correspondence between conditional…

2019-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm learns non-Gaussian graphical models via Hessian scores and triangular transport.

problem Learning graph structure from non-Gaussian data.
method Score based on integrated Hessian information, coupled with triangular transport map.
result Algorithm successfully recovers graph structure for non-Gaussian data.

CGDL improves open set recognition by learning conditional Gaussian distributions.

problem Handling unknown samples in real-world recognition tasks.
method Conditional Gaussian Distribution Learning (CGDL) with probabilistic ladder architecture.
result CGDL significantly outperforms baseline methods on standard image datasets.

Researchers disrupt Gaussian model inference to test adversarial attacks.

problem Disrupting conditional inference in multivariate Gaussian models under adversarial conditions.
method Considered white- and grey-box settings with complete and incomplete knowledge of the Gaussian distribution, respectively. Reduced to quadratic and stochastic quadratic programs. Derived structural properties for solution methods.
result Demonstrated the impact and efficacy of attacks in various applications, including real estate evaluation, interest rate estimation, and signals processing.

HMC improves Gaussian sampling efficiency with long, random steps.

problem Efficiently sampling from high-dimensional Gaussian distributions.
method Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with long and random integration times.
result HMC achieves ε\varepsilon-closeness in total variation distance with O~(κd1/4log(1/ε))\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\kappa} d^{1/4} \log(1/\varepsilon)) gradient queries.

The paper proves the convergence of Q-value for Gaussian rewards.

problem Existing proofs cannot guarantee convergence of the Q-function for Gaussian rewards.
method Using the central limit theorem and relaxing the condition to E[r(s,a)2]<E[r(s,a)^2]<\infty.
result Proves the convergence of the Q-function under the condition of E[r(s,a)2]<E[r(s,a)^2]<\infty.

Bayesian inference for wide neural networks using Edgeworth expansion.

problem Analyzing the non-Gaussian behavior of wide neural networks in Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a non-Gaussian distribution using multivariate Edgeworth expansion for finite-width neural networks.
result Derived non-Gaussian posterior distribution in Bayesian regression tasks.

A new copula model for multi-attribute data using optimal transport.

problem Relaxing the Gaussian assumption for multi-attribute graphical models.
method Introducing a new copula (Cyclically Monotone Copula) and using optimal transport theory.
result The model allows arbitrary continuous distributions and is more flexible than classical methods.

Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By design, ancestral graphs encode precisely the conditional independence structures t…

2012-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

A robust Gaussian process model using Huber likelihood for outlier resistance.

problem Outliers in observational data sets affect Gaussian process regression's robustness.
method Proposes a Gaussian process model with Huber likelihood and weights based on projection statistics.
result Demonstrates improved statistical efficiency and robustness to outliers.

Paper improves SDR estimation speed and conditions.

problem Improving sufficient dimension reduction for multi-index models.
method Estimating expected smoothed gradient outer product.
result Achieves fast parametric convergence rate of Cdn1/2C_d \cdot n^{-1/2}.

Bayesian approach for solving systems of linear PDEs with boundary conditions.

problem Modeling data efficiently with prior knowledge from systems of linear PDEs.
method Construct multi-output Gaussian process priors using Gröbner bases and pullback parametrizations.
result Gaussian process priors can represent solutions to systems of linear PDEs adhering to boundary conditions.

A new model forecasts Value-at-Risk using NIG distribution and dynamic scores.

problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) in financial markets.
method Proposes a parametric forecasting model based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG) incorporating intraday information.
result The model outperforms traditional GARCH models, especially in high-risk scenarios.

Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.

problem Approximating probability functions of non-spherical Gaussian mixtures.
method Bayesian decomposition, spherical radial decomposition, random sampling.
result Established differentiability and integral representation of gradient for probability functions.

This paper proposes a new method for conditional sampling using optimal transport.

problem Sampling conditional distributions in Bayesian inference and density estimation.
method Iterative block-triangular transport maps solving an optimal transport problem with a weighted L2 cost function.
result The proposed method extends the data-driven approach for conditional sampling.

We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…

2017-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

New method aggregates Gaussian experts by detecting conditional independence violations.

problem Aggregation of dependent Gaussian experts leads to sub-optimal solutions.
method Uses Gaussian graphical model to detect and correct conditional independence violations.
result Improves aggregation of Gaussian experts, outperforming SOTA DGP approaches.

Gaussianization flows transform any random vector into a Gaussian, enabling efficient computation and sample generation.

problem Transforming any random vector into a Gaussian for efficient computation and sample generation.
method Iterative Gaussianization and normalizing flow model.
result Gaussianization flows are universal approximators and achieve better performance on tabular datasets.

A new method for learning conditional distributions using ODEs and neural networks.

problem Learning conditional distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Conditional Föllmer Flow, discretized with Euler's method, using nonparametric velocity estimation.
result Effective approximation of target conditional distributions, with convergence results for Wasserstein-2 distance.

New EM algorithm for mixtures of elliptical distributions handles missing data and outliers.

problem Missing data imputation for noisy and non-Gaussian data.
method Investigation of a new EM algorithm for mixtures of elliptical distributions.
result The proposed algorithm is robust to outliers and competitive with other methods.

We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the functional relationship between the task variables and the parameters of this con…

2015-08-28abs ↗pdf ↗