New method for fitting graphical models with latent variables using regularized conditional likelihood.
problem Graphical modeling with latent variables and confounding dependencies.
method Regularized conditional likelihood for exponential family graphical models.
result Framework applicable to broader settings without knowing latent variables' distribution.
Paper relaxes identifiability conditions for causal models with latent variables.
problem Challenges in identifying causal graphical models with latent variables.
method Proposes a double triangular graphical condition for nonparametric measurement models with binary latent variables.
result Guarantees identifiability of the entire causal graphical model under relaxed conditions.
A new fairness metric for decision-making algorithms, conditioning on known fair variables.
problem Fairness issues in decision-making systems.
method Conditional fairness metric, Derivable Conditional Fairness Regularizer (DCFR), adversarial representation.
result Traditional fairness notations are special cases of the new conditional fairness notation.
For a linear combination of random variables, fix some confidence level and consider the quantile of the combination at this level. We are interested in the partial derivatives of the quantile with respect to the weights of the random variables in the combination. It turns out that under suitable conditions on the join…
A new variable importance measure for DRFs detects broader impacts on output distributions.
problem Estimating full conditional distributions of multivariate outputs given inputs.
method Based on the drop and relearn principle and MMD distance.
result Consistent and high-performing variable importance measure for DRFs.
The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random…
Develops a new framework for conditional independence.
problem Generalizing previous notions of conditional independence.
method Introduces transition probability spaces and transitional random variables.
result Satisfies all desired relevance relations except symmetry.
Optimized variable orderings improve autoregressive model performance.
problem Challenges in variable ordering affect autoregressive model efficiency.
method Learn graphical model structure to inform optimal variable orderings.
result Graph-informed orderings yield higher-fidelity samples.
There has been much recent, exciting work on combining the complementary strengths of latent variable models and deep learning. Latent variable modeling makes it easy to explicitly specify model constraints through conditional independence properties, while deep learning makes it possible to parameterize these conditio…
We improve conditional VAEs by incentivizing informative latent variables.
problem Structured-prediction tasks with one-to-many mappings.
method Modify latent variable model and introduce a multimodal prior.
result Significantly higher generalisation capability demonstrated on various datasets.
ContextFlow++ improves generative models by conditioning on mixed-variable contexts.
problem Lack of effective methods for context conditioning in flow-based generative models.
method Proposes ContextFlow++ with additive conditioning and mixed-variable architecture.
result ContextFlow++ achieves higher performance metrics and faster training.
New method learns graphical models with latent variables for extreme events.
problem Learning graphical models with latent variables for multivariate extremes.
method Tractable convex program exttt{eglatent} for Hüsler-Reiss models.
result Consistently recovers conditional graph and latent variables.
New algorithm combines Geostatistics and Quantile Random Forests for non-stationary spatial modelling.
problem Non-stationary spatial modelling with multiple secondary variables.
method Combines Geostatistics and Quantile Random Forests to estimate conditional distributions and simulate spatial data.
result Consistent results similar to geostatistical and Quantile Random Forests, allowing for embedding simpler interpolation techniques.
A new test for conditional independence in discretized data.
problem Testing conditional independence when only discretized observations are available.
method Proposes a conditional independence test designed for discretized observations, using bridge equations to recover latent variables' information.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed test through theoretical and empirical validation.
Variable screening is a fast dimension reduction technique for assisting high dimensional feature selection. As a preselection method, it selects a moderate size subset of candidate variables for further refining via feature selection to produce the final model. The performance of variable screening depends on both com…
Forré introduces a new conditional independence notion for mixed variables.
problem Unified framework for random and non-stochastic variables.
method Unified framework of transitional conditional independence and causal calculus for iDMGs.
result Unified framework connects conditional independencies to graphical separation criteria.
Method discovers local independence in systems with continuous variables.
problem Applying Context-Specific Independence (CSI) to continuous variables is impractical.
method Neural contextual decomposition (NCD) learns partition of joint outcome space.
result NCD successfully discovers local independence in synthetic and real-world systems.
New method identifies causal relationships in presence of hidden variables.
problem Identifying causal relationships when hidden variables exist.
method Established sufficient conditions and introduced a search algorithm.
result Proved soundness and completeness of the search algorithm.
Ising models describe the joint probability distribution of a vector of binary feature variables. Typically, not all the variables interact with each other and one is interested in learning the presumably sparse network structure of the interacting variables. However, in the presence of latent variables, the convention…
New method identifies latent causal variables from observed data, overcoming indeterminacies.
problem Identifying latent causal variables from observed data, especially when latent variables are weight-variant.
method Introduces a novel identifiability condition for latent causal models, proposing SuaVE method.
result Identifies latent causal variables up to trivial permutation and scaling, demonstrating consistency and efficacy.
ACE models allow flexible conditioning and prediction of latent variables.
problem Lack of flexibility in conditioning and prediction of latent variables in probabilistic models.
method Introduces Amortized Conditioning Engine (ACE) that explicitly represents latent variables and allows runtime conditioning and prediction.
result ACE models outperform existing methods in diverse tasks like image completion, classification, Bayesian optimization, and simulation-based inference.
CMRFs extend PGMs for topological data, capturing both conditional and marginal dependencies.
problem Limited expressiveness of PGMs for topological data.
method Introducing Colored Markov Random Fields (CMRFs) that model Gaussian edge variables on topological spaces.
result CMRFs improve distributed estimation over physical networks compared to baselines.
A concentration graph associated with a random vector is an undirected graph where each vertex corresponds to one random variable in the vector. The absence of an edge between any pair of vertices (or variables) is equivalent to full conditional independence between these two variables given all the other variables. In…
Bayesian networks, and especially their structures, are powerful tools for representing conditional independencies and dependencies between random variables. In applications where related variables form a priori known groups, chosen to represent different "views" to or aspects of the same entities, one may be more inte…
CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.
problem Misidentification of unimportant variables in complex models due to covariate correlations.
method Developed a model agnostic and computationally lean Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) approach.
result CPI provides accurate type-I error control and more parsimonious variable selection.
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
Proposes a new condition to estimate latent variable causal graphs from observed data.
problem Estimating causal structures when observed variables are not the underlying causal variables.
method Introduces Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition and a recursive learning algorithm.
result Shows that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure.
Quantitatively assessing relationships between latent variables and observed variables is important for understanding and developing generative models and representation learning. In this paper, we propose latent-observed dissimilarity (LOD) to evaluate the dissimilarity between the probabilistic characteristics of lat…
Investigates VaR behavior for sums of one-sided random variables, showing impossibilities and conditions for super-additivity.
problem Investigates the behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for sums of one-sided random variables.
method Analyzes the extremal aggregation behavior of VaR, introduces structural conditions for super-additivity.
result Characterizes when VaR is fully super-additive and provides unified framework for various dependence structures.
Generative model learns conditional distributions on collective variable levels.
problem Modeling conditional probability distributions on collective variable levels.
method General and efficient learning approach, data enrichment strategy.
result Effective generative models on different level-sets of collective variables.
Paper automates variable selection for network anomaly detection.
problem Automating variable selection for network anomaly detection is challenging.
method Ensemble approach combining well-known selection techniques.
result Identifies a small number of core variables that approximate full-variable performance.
A new algorithm uses IVs to learn optimal policies from observational data.
problem Learning optimal policies from unobserved variable confounded data.
method IV-aided Value Iteration (IVVI) algorithm based on conditional moment restrictions.
result First provably efficient algorithm for instrument-aided offline RL.
Paper generalizes bipolar theorems for non-negative random variables.
problem Problems with existing bipolar theorems under stronger assumptions.
method Generalizes existing theorems in a robust probabilistic framework.
result Provides necessary and sufficient conditions for bipolar representation.
New framework models uncertainty with uncertainty variables.
problem Modeling uncertainty in state estimation and inference.
method Developed uncertainty variables, sets, and graphical models.
result Preserves independence properties and builds useful concepts.
Unified framework for modeling hierarchical spaces in design problems.
problem Challenges in modeling hierarchical, conditional, heterogeneous, or tree-structured domains.
method Unified framework combining feature modeling and graph theory, introducing meta and partially-decreed variables.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on complex system design problems, including neural networks and green-aircraft.
The paper introduces Shapley curves for measuring variable importance in nonparametric settings.
problem Limited statistical understanding of Shapley values as variable importance measures.
method Introduces Shapley curves based on conditional expectation and covariate distribution; derives convergence rates and normality; proposes a novel bootstrap procedure.
result Validates theoretical findings with numerical studies and analyzes vehicle prices determinants.
Defines a new metric to measure importance of predictors in complex machine learning models.
problem Measuring importance of predictors in black box machine learning models.
method Introduces a new metric, GVIM, based on true conditional expectation functions and causal interpretation.
result The GVIM can be represented as a function of Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), providing a causal interpretation.
In this paper we derive variability measures for the conditional probability distributions of a pair of random variables, and we study its application in the inference of causal-effect relationships. We also study the combination of the proposed measures with standard statistical measures in the the framework of the Ch…
Paper tackles dynamic behavior of variable topology mechanisms, presenting new transition conditions.
problem Dynamic behavior of mechanisms with changing kinematic topology.
method Presented new transition conditions for variable topology mechanisms using projected motion equations and Voronets equations.
result Results show the dynamic behavior of joint locking in 3R and 6DOF mechanisms.
DIET tests conditional independence using marginal dependence measures of residual information.
problem Computational intractability of conditional randomization tests (CRTs).
method DIET avoids fitting large models by leveraging marginal independence statistics of information residuals.
result DIET achieves higher power than other tractable CRTs on synthetic and real benchmarks.
The paper proposes a method to stabilize predictions by identifying causal variables using a seed variable.
problem Stable prediction across unknown test data with potential spurious correlations.
method Conditional independence test based algorithm using a seed variable to separate causal from non-causal variables.
result The algorithm precisely separates causal and non-causal variables for stable prediction across test data.
We consider the problem of covariance matrix estimation in the presence of latent variables. Under suitable conditions, it is possible to learn the marginal covariance matrix of the observed variables via a tractable convex program, where the concentration matrix of the observed variables is decomposed into a sparse ma…
For a sequence of nonnegative random variables, we provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure that each sequence of its forward convex combinations converges in probability to the same limit. These conditions correspond to an essentially measure-free version of the notion of uniform integrability.
Statistical inference can be computationally prohibitive in ultrahigh-dimensional linear models. Correlation-based variable screening, in which one leverages marginal correlations for removal of irrelevant variables from the model prior to statistical inference, can be used to overcome this challenge. Prior works on co…
GEEN uses deep learning to estimate unobserved variables from observed data.
problem Estimating unobserved variables in latent variable models.
method GEEN uses deep learning with Kullback-Leibler distance to map observed measurements to latent variable realizations.
result GEEN provides a method to identify and estimate latent variables in a class of models.
Paper identifies and estimates CAPCEs in continuous treatment settings.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatments.
method Instrumental variable approach to identify CAPCEs under weaker conditions.
result Developed three families of CAPCE estimators with statistical properties analyzed.
This paper studies ordered weighted L1 (OWL) norm regularization for sparse estimation problems with strongly correlated variables. We prove sufficient conditions for clustering based on the correlation/colinearity of variables using the OWL norm, of which the so-called OSCAR is a particular case. Our results extend pr…
Bayesian test assesses conditional independence between variables.
problem Quantifying dependence or independence between variables given a third.
method Uses Polya tree priors on conditional probability densities.
result Provides a Bayesian measure of conditional dependence or independence.