arXiv research

A new concordance loss improves model performance and reliability in survival prediction.

Paper compares different models for time-to-event analysis.

The study connects twist positivity to L-space knots and concordance.

The knot Floer complex together with the associated concordance invariant epsilon can be used to define a filtration on the smooth concordance group. We show that the indexing set of this filtration contains the natural numbers cross the integers as an ordered subset.

Researchers analyze the relationship between ML cost functions and the C-index in survival analysis.

Study of psc metrics via block diffeomorphisms and cubical sets.

This paper studies cobordism and concordance for virtual knots. We define the affine index polynomial, prove that it is a concordance invariant for knots and links (explaining when it is defined for links), show that it is also invariant under certain forms of labeled cobordism and study a number of examples in relatio…

Paper decomposes C-index to analyze survival prediction model performance.

The concordance probability or C-index is a popular measure to capture the discriminatory ability of a regression model. In this article, the definition of this measure is adapted to the specific needs of the frequency and severity model, typically used during the technical pricing of a non-life insurance product. Due …

We characterize the fractional Dehn twist coefficient of a braid in terms of a slope of the homogenization of the Upsilon function, where Upsilon is the function-valued concordance homomorphism defined by Ozsváth, Stipsicz, and Szabó. We use this characterization to prove that $n$-braids with fractional Dehn twist coef…

The paper predicts survival functions using random survival trees and concordance maximization.

For all n > 0 there is a homomorphism from the smooth concordance group of knots in dimension 2n + 1 to an algebraically defined group called the rational algebraic concordance group. This algebraic concordance group splits as a direct sum of groups indexed by polynomials. For n > 1 the homomorphism is injective. This …

Short note on braid index and quasipositivity of certain pretzel knots.

Paper introduces IC-index to evaluate interaction prediction methods.

The development of molecular signatures for the prediction of time-to-event outcomes is a methodologically challenging task in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Although there are numerous approaches for the derivation of marker combinations and their evaluation, the underlying methodology often suffers from the proble…

This paper shows that only finitely many knots can be ribbon concordant to any given knot.

Milnor's $\barμ$-invariants of links in the $3$-sphere $S^3$ vanish on any link concordant to a boundary link. In particular, they are trivial on any knot in $S^3$. Here we consider knots in thickened surfaces $Σ\times [0,1]$, where $Σ$ is closed and oriented. We construct new concordance invariants by adapting the Che…

Given a connected cobordism between two knots in the 3-sphere, our main result is an inequality involving torsion orders of the knot Floer homology of the knots, and the number of local maxima and the genus of the cobordism. This has several topological applications: The torsion order gives lower bounds on the bridge i…

We introduce partial secondary invariants associated to complete Riemannian metrics which have uniformly positive scalar curvature outside a prescribed subset on a spin manifold. These can be used to distinguish such Riemannian metrics up to concordance relative to the prescribed subset. We exhibit a general external p…

This is an expository paper designed to introduce undergraduates to the Atiyah-Singer index theorem 50 years after its announcement. It includes motivation, a statement of the theorem, an outline of the easy part of the heat equation proof. It includes counting lattice points and knot concordance as applications.

We use Ozsváth, Stipsicz, and Szabó's Upsilon-invariant to provide bounds on cobordisms between knots that `contain full-twists'. In particular, we recover and generalize a classical consequence of the Morton-Franks-Williams inequality for knots: positive braids that contain a positive full-twist realize the braid inde…

Kernel Induced Random Survival Forests (KIRSF) is a statistical learning algorithm which aims to improve prediction accuracy for survival data. As in Random Survival Forests (RSF), Cumulative Hazard Function is predicted for each individual in the test set. Prediction error is estimated using Harrell's concordance inde…

In an earlier work, we introduced a family of t-modified knot Floer homologies, defined by modifying the construction of knot Floer homology HFK-minus. The resulting groups were then used to define concordance homomorphisms indexed by t in [0,2]. In the present work we elaborate on the special case t=1, and call the co…

In 1997 Cochran-Orr-Teichner introduced a natural filtration, called the n-solvable filtration, of the smooth knot concordance group, C. Its terms {F_n} are indexed by half integers. We show that each associated graded abelian group G_n=F_n/F_{n.5}, n>1, contains infinite linearly independent sets of elements of order …

Survival analysis/time-to-event models are extremely useful as they can help companies predict when a customer will buy a product, churn or default on a loan, and therefore help them improve their ROI. In this paper, we introduce a new method to calculate survival functions using the Multi-Task Logistic Regression (MTL…

New surfaces in 3D manifolds are found that cannot be smoothly deformed into each other.

Stability theorem for concordance embeddings with applications.

C-index varies among software, complicating model comparison.

We investigate the disparity between smooth and topological almost concordance of knots in general 3-manifolds Y. Almost concordance is defined by considering knots in Y modulo concordance in Yx[0,1] and the action of the concordance group of knots in the 3-sphere that ties in local knots. We prove that the trivial fre…

The concordance genus of a knot is the least genus of any knot in its concordance class. It is bounded above by the genus of the knot, and bounded below by the slice genus, two well-studied invariants. In this paper we consider the concordance genus of 11--crossing prime knots. This analysis resolves the concordance ge…

This work shows non-abelian quotient groups in string link concordance.

We provide a set of copulas that can be interpreted as having the negative extreme dependence. This set of copulas is interesting because it coincides with countermonotonic copula for a bivariate case, and more importantly, is shown to be minimal in concordance ordering in the sense that no copula exists which is stric…

Khovanov homology shows (4,5) torus knot is a summand in its concordance class.

Study shows knots with similar Blanchfield forms can be homotopy ribbon concordant.

New homomorphism from Khovanov homology for knot concordance.

The concordance genus of a knot K is the minimum Seifert genus of all knots smoothly concordant to K. Concordance genus is bounded below by the 4-ball genus and above by the Seifert genus. We give a lower bound for the concordance genus of K coming from the knot Floer complex of K. As an application, we prove that ther…

Digital risk scores predict depression and anxiety over 10 years.

Kirby and Lickorish showed that every knot in the 3-sphere is concordant to a prime knot, equivalently, every concordance class contains a prime knot. We prove here that their result can be strengthened: Every knot in the 3-sphere is invertibly concordant to a prime knot. A consequence is that every double concordance …

Abstract: Proves non-abelian group of equivariant concordance.

The concordance genus of a knot is the least genus of any knot in its concordance class. Although difficult to compute, it is a useful invariant that highlights the distinction between the three-genus and four-genus. In this paper we define and discuss the stable concordance genus of a knot, which describes the behavio…

Introduces slice knots and concordance, linking to exotic smooth structures.

We can construct a 4-manifold by attaching 2-handles to a 4-ball with framing r along the components of a link in the boundary of the 4-ball. We define a link as r-shake slice if there exists embedded spheres that represent the generators of the second homology of the 4-manifold. This naturally extends r-shake slice, a…

New hyperbolic knots not concordant to algebraic ones found.

We describe an action of the concordance group of knots in the three-sphere on concordances of knots in arbitrary 3-manifolds. As an application we define the notion of almost-concordance between knots. After some basic results, we prove the existence of non-trivial almost-concordance classes in all non-abelian 3-manif…

We define an infinite family of linearly independent, integer-valued smooth concordance homomorphisms. Our homomorphisms are explicitly computable and rely on local equivalence classes of knot Floer complexes over the ring $\mathbb{F}[U, V]/(UV=0)$. We compare our invariants to other concordance homomorphisms coming fr…

A knot in the 3-sphere is called doubly slice if it is a slice of an unknotted 2-sphere in the 4-sphere. We give a bi-sequence of new obstructions for a knot being doubly slice. We construct it following the idea of Cochran-Orr-Teichner's filtration of the classical knot concordance group. This yields a bi-filtration o…

A fibered concordance of knots, introduced by Harer, is a concordance between fibered knots that is well-behaved with respect to the fibrations. We consider semi-fibered concordance of two component ordered links $L=J \sqcup K$ with $J$ fibered. These are concordances that restrict to fibered concordances on the first …

Credit scoring plays a vital role in the field of consumer finance. Survival analysis provides an advanced solution to the credit-scoring problem by quantifying the probability of survival time. In order to deal with highly heterogeneous industrial data collected in Chinese market of consumer finance, we propose a nonp…