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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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1122 · Jun 201919922001200920172026
21 results for compounding-error

A new method reduces compounding errors in model-based reinforcement learning.

problem Compounding errors in long horizon predictions from model-based reinforcement learning.
method Maximum Entropy Model Rollouts (MEMR) with non-uniform sampling and prioritized experience replay.
result Significantly reduces computation requirements compared to other model-based methods.

Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles model-based RL's inaccuracy issue by dynamically adjusting planning horizons.

problem Model-based RL's failure due to model inaccuracy over long planning horizons.
method State-dependent planning horizon, learning cumulative model errors with Temporal Difference methods.
result The proposed method successfully adapts planning horizons to state-dependent model accuracy, improving policy learning efficiency.

Action chunking and data exploration improve behavior cloning in robotics.

problem Exponential errors in learning from demonstrations for continuous control tasks.
method Action chunking and exploratory data collection.
result Control-theoretic stability is key to improving imitation learning.

The task of multi-step ahead prediction in language models is challenging considering the discrepancy between training and testing. At test time, a language model is required to make predictions given past predictions as input, instead of the past targets that are provided during training. This difference, known as exp…

2018-09-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Abstract MDPs enable strategic exploration and fast reward transfer in complex environments.

problem Challenging to learn accurate MDPs for high-dimensional states.
method Learn an abstract MDP over low-dimensional coarse states, using an abstraction function.
result Achieves superhuman performance on Pitfall! and higher reward with fewer samples.

We present a novel view that unifies two frameworks that aim to solve sequential prediction problems: learning to search (L2S) and recurrent neural networks (RNN). We point out equivalences between elements of the two frameworks. By complementing what is missing from one framework comparing to the other, we introduce a…

2016-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative model learns to mimic time-series behavior to generate accurate trajectories.

problem Learning generative models for time-series data with accurate multi-step trajectories.
method Contrastive imitation framework combining autoregressive and adversarial elements.
result The method generates accurate and useful samples from real-world datasets.

Unified framework for imitation learning via moment matching.

problem Closing the gap between imitation and real-world performance.
method Classifying imitation learning algorithms based on reward or action-value moment matching, considering adversarial divergences.
result Derivation of bounds on policy performance for all algorithms in each class, and introduction of moment recoverability.

Sequence prediction models can be learned from example sequences with a variety of training algorithms. Maximum likelihood learning is simple and efficient, yet can suffer from compounding error at test time. Reinforcement learning such as policy gradient addresses the issue but can have prohibitively poor exploration …

2018-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

We present a deep recurrent neural network architecture to solve a class of stochastic optimal control problems described by fully nonlinear Hamilton Jacobi Bellmanpartial differential equations. Such PDEs arise when one considers stochastic dynamics characterized by uncertainties that are additive and control multipli…

2019-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

End-to-end framework learns LLM routing from observational data.

problem Compounding errors in decoupled approaches and reliance on full-feedback data.
method Causal end-to-end framework minimizing decision-making regret from observational data.
result Method outperforms existing baselines across different embedding models.

Model-based Reinforcement Learning approaches have the promise of being sample efficient. Much of the progress in learning dynamics models in RL has been made by learning models via supervised learning. But traditional model-based approaches lead to `compounding errors' when the model is unrolled step by step. Essentia…

2019-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Auto-CEI improves LLM reasoning by balancing assertiveness and conservativeness.

problem Hallucinations and laziness in LLM reasoning tasks.
method Expert Iteration explores reasoning trajectories, guiding incorrect paths back on track and promoting appropriate 'I don't know' responses.
result Auto-CEI achieves superior alignment in logical reasoning, mathematics, and planning tasks.

Agents compose pre-trained policies for complex tasks, improving zero-shot performance.

problem Challenges in long-horizon predictions and estimating visitation distributions induced by policy sequences.
method Learn predictive jumpy world models of multi-step dynamics, enhancing predictions with a consistency objective.
result Compositional planning with jumpy world models yields, on average, a 200% relative improvement over primitive actions on long-horizon tasks.

Improves data efficiency in multi-agent control tasks using model-based reinforcement learning.

problem Limited data efficiency in reinforcement learning for multi-agent tasks.
method Decentralized model-based policy optimization (DMPO) framework.
result DMPO achieves superior data efficiency and matches model-free methods using true models.

PBC improves AI and dynamical subseasonal forecasts by reducing biases.

problem Subseasonal forecast accuracy drops due to model biases and compounding errors.
method Probabilistic bias correction (PBC) using machine learning to correct historical forecasts.
result PBC doubles AI Forecasting System's subseasonal skill and improves dynamical model skill.

EBIL simplifies IL by estimating expert energy as reward, achieving effective performance.

problem Recovering optimal policy from expert demonstrations without reward signals.
method EBIL uses a two-stage solution: first estimating expert energy as reward, then learning policy.
result EBIL achieves effective performance and interpretable reward signals.