With the proliferation of mobile devices and the internet of things, developing principled solutions for privacy in time series applications has become increasingly important. While differential privacy is the gold standard for database privacy, many time series applications require a different kind of guarantee, and a…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “compositional time series”
CTLNet predicts Shanghai Composite Index with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting Shanghai Composite Index for investors and researchers.
method Proposes CNN-Transformer-LSTM Networks (CTLNet) for multivariate time series forecasting.
result CTLNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in Shanghai Composite Index prediction.
Paper combines geometry and time-series analysis for spatiotemporal data.
problem Multivariate time-series data from multiple sensors.
method Combines manifold learning, Riemannian geometry, and spectral analysis.
result Proposes Riemannian multi-resolution analysis (RMRA) for dynamic mode extraction.
Composite likelihood inference of fractional Gaussian processes with sequentially optimal subset selection
problem Estimating parameters in time series
method Composite likelihood method
result The method reduces computational cost
New sparse GP model learns compositional kernels efficiently.
problem Learning accurate Gaussian Process models with complex kernel structures.
method MultiSVGP model with Horseshoe prior for kernel selection.
result Our model provides better fit and faster computation for large-scale data.
We utilize a recently developed genetic algorithm, in conjunction with discrete wavelets, for carrying out successful forecasts of the trend in financial time series, that includes the NASDAQ composite index. Discrete wavelets isolate the local, small scale variations in these non-stationary time series, after which th…
In this paper we study n-composition series of affine manifolds. One composition series are classified using gerbe theory. It is natural to think that n-composition series must be classified using n-gerbe theory. In the last section of this, we propose a notion of abelian n-gerbe theory
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a general and analytically tractable way of modeling complex time-varying, nonparametric functions. The Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) system constructs natural-language description of time-series data by treating unknown time-series data nonparametrically using GP with …
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
problem Probabilistic coherent forecasting of time series data across different levels of aggregation.
method Proposes a coherent multivariate mixture output for neural forecasting architectures, optimizing with a composite likelihood objective.
result 13.2% average accuracy improvements on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
We propose a novel approach for analysis of the composition of an equity mutual fund based on the time series decomposition of the price movements of the individual stocks of the fund. The proposed scheme can be applied to check whether the style proclaimed for a mutual fund actually matches with the fund composition. …
Bayesian ARMA model with directional shifts captures structural breaks in compositional time series.
problem Structural breaks in compositional time series due to external shocks or policy changes.
method Developed a Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA model augmented with a directional-shift intervention mechanism.
result The model captures structural breaks through interpretable parameters and produces coherent probabilistic forecasts.
Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an even more challenging problem. In an effort to expand the possible forecasting p…
The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system using a collection of 7,881 …
Hedge funds have long been viewed as a veritable "black box" of investing since outsiders may never view the exact composition of portfolio holdings. Therefore, the ability to estimate an informative set of asset weights is highly desirable for analysis. We present a compositional state space model for estimation of an…
Study compares Bitcoin, gold, and gas price complexity using multifractal and multiscale entropy methods.
problem Quantifying complexity of financial time series for market analysis.
method Employed MF-DFA and RCMSE to analyze Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series.
result Bitcoin shows higher complexity compared to other markets, linked to higher nonlinear correlations.
This paper evaluates anomaly detection methods for multivariate time series data.
problem Lack of systematic comparison of anomaly detection methods on multivariate time series data.
method Comprehensive evaluation of 10 models and 4 scoring functions on 10 datasets.
result Dynamic scoring functions outperform static ones, and the choice of scoring functions matters more than the model choice.
Paper proposes MSSDDPG for better financial trading strategies.
problem Extracting accurate features from noisy, non-stationary financial time series.
method Multi-scale stroke deep deterministic policy gradient reinforcement learning model (MSSDDPG).
result MSSDDPG outperforms other strategies in China's CSI 300 and SSE Composite.
The existence of forbidden patterns, i.e., certain missing sequences in a given time series, is a recently proposed instrument of potential application in the study of time series. Forbidden patterns are related to the permutation entropy, which has the basic properties of classic chaos indicators, thus allowing to sep…
Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates, typically the structure is learned via a greedy optimization procedure. This restri…
The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system to identify behavioral simil…
GP model for time series forecasting with priors.
problem Automatic selection of optimal kernels and reliable estimation of hyperparameters.
method Fixed composition of kernels, automatic relevance determination (ARD), empirical Bayes priors.
result GP model is more accurate than state-of-the-art models.
This is a survey of our research on geometric structures of projective embeddings and includes some topics of our talks in several symposia during 1990-99. We clarify our main problem, which is to construct a kind of geometric composition series of projective embeddings. The concept of "geometric composition series" is…
Analyzing multivariate time series data is important to predict future events and changes of complex systems in finance, manufacturing, and administrative decisions. The expressiveness power of Gaussian Process (GP) regression methods has been significantly improved by compositional covariance structures. In this paper…
Seq2Tens uses tensors to efficiently represent sequences, improving performance on time series and video tasks.
problem Challenges in analyzing sequential data due to complex dependencies and non-commutativity.
method Uses tensor algebra to capture dependencies and low-rank tensor projections to manage computational complexity.
result State-of-the-art performance on multivariate time series classification and video generation benchmarks.
Accounting for outliers and calendar effects in surrogate simulations of stock return sequencesphysics.soc-ph
Surrogate Data Analysis (SDA) is a statistical hypothesis testing framework for the determination of weak chaos in time series dynamics. Existing SDA procedures do not account properly for the rich structures observed in stock return sequences, attributed to the presence of heteroscedasticity, seasonal effects and outl…
Bayesian model predicts evolving guest origin markets in tourism.
problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models achieve lower forecast error and competitive performance in guest origin market shares.
Bayesian models predict evolving guest origin markets in tourism.
problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models outperform standard benchmarks in forecasting guest origin market shares.
In this paper, we give a new construction of the adapted complex structure on a neighborhood of the zero section in the tangent bundle of a compact, real-analytic Riemannian manifold. Motivated by the "complexifier" approach of T. Thiemann as well as certain formulas of V. Guillemin and M. Stenzel, we obtain the polari…
The generalization properties of Gaussian processes depend heavily on the choice of kernel, and this choice remains a dark art. We present the Neural Kernel Network (NKN), a flexible family of kernels represented by a neural network. The NKN architecture is based on the composition rules for kernels, so that each unit …
Modelling of dependence in high-dimensional financial time series by cluster-derived canonical vinesq-fin.ST
We extend existing models in the financial literature by introducing a cluster-derived canonical vine (CDCV) copula model for capturing high dimensional dependence between financial time series. This model utilises a simplified market-sector vine copula framework similar to those introduced by Heinen and Valdesogo (200…
CAST predicts distribution-valued time series by stabilizing and transporting simplex-supported successors.
problem Forecasting distribution-valued time series with structural failure modes.
method CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport) uses successors retrieved from causal context, stabilized with a persistence anchor, and locally transported on ordered supports.
result CAST outperforms baselines on eleven public and simulated benchmarks, achieving best average rank on both one-step KL and autoregressive rollout JSD.
We present a personalized and reliable prediction model for healthcare, which can provide individually tailored medical services such as diagnosis, disease treatment, and prevention. Our proposed framework targets at making personalized and reliable predictions from time-series data, such as Electronic Health Records (…
Generating virtual scenarios of multivariate financial data for quantitative trading applicationsq-fin.CP
In this paper, we present a novel approach to the generation of virtual scenarios of multivariate financial data of arbitrary length and composition of assets. With this approach, decades of realistic time-synchronized data can be simulated for a large number of assets, producing diverse scenarios to test and improve q…
Estimates kernel eigenvalues for compositional dot-product kernels.
problem Improving estimates for kernel eigenvalues.
method Eigenvalue decay estimates of integral operators associated with dot-product kernels.
result Improved estimates for kernel volumes in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
Detecting and interpreting distortions in hierarchical organization of complex time seriesphysics.data-an
Hierarchical organization is a cornerstone of complexity and multifractality constitutes its central quantifying concept. For model uniform cascades the corresponding singularity spectra are symmetric while those extracted from empirical data are often asymmetric. Using the selected time series representing such divers…
The article concerns the geometrical theory of general systems of partial differential equations in the \emph{absolute sense}, i.e., without any additional structure and subject to arbitrary change of variables in the widest possible meaning. The main result describes the composition series $Ω^0\subsetΩ^1\subset\cd…
In this contribution we describe an approach to evolve composite covariance functions for Gaussian processes using genetic programming. A critical aspect of Gaussian processes and similar kernel-based models such as SVM is, that the covariance function should be adapted to the modeled data. Frequently, the squared expo…
We give a complete classification of intertwining operators (symmetry breaking operators) between spherical principal series representations of G=O(n+1,1) and G'=O(n,1). We construct three meromorphic families of the symmetry breaking operators, and find their distribution kernels and their residues at all poles explic…
NAST generalizes scattering transform for non-stationary time series analysis.
problem Analyzing non-stationary time series data.
method Neural activation of scattering transform with various activation functions and high pass filters.
result Central and non-central limit theorems for NAST of Gaussian processes.
Distributional Fitting and Tail Analysis of Lead-Time Compositions: Nights vs. Revenue on Airbnbq-fin.ST
Study analyzes Airbnb lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value, finding divergent shapes and tail behavior.
problem Analyzing lead-time distributions for Airbnb demand metrics.
method Compositional analysis of daily lead-time vectors, fitting Gamma, Weibull, and Lognormal distributions, using generalized Pareto for tail inference.
result Lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value diverge, with GBV concentrating more in mid-range horizons.
Context-dependent self-exciting point processes: models, methods, and risk bounds in high dimensionsstat.ML
This paper models how features influence event triggers in high-dimensional networks.
problem Estimating context-dependent networks in high-dimensional marked point processes.
method Leveraging compositional time series and regularization methods, the paper considers autoregressive multinomial and logistic-normal models for network estimation.
result The logistic-normal model leads to a convex negative log-likelihood objective and captures dependence across categories.
Meromorphic open-string vertex algebras and modules over two-dimensional orientable space formsmath.QA
Study meromorphic open-string vertex algebras and modules over Riemannian manifolds.
problem Characterize meromorphic open-string vertex algebras and their modules over Riemannian manifolds.
method Explicitly determine bases for meromorphic open-string vertex algebras and their modules, using parallel tensors and eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator.
result Every irreducible module of a specific type is completely reducible if every composition factor is generated by eigenfunctions of eigenvalue for some .
SFAG generates realistic financial data that passes trading tests.
problem Financial generative models often produce unrealistic and unstable trading outcomes.
method Introduces SFAG, a GAN variant that aligns stylized facts and optimizes with adversarial loss.
result SFAG generates synthetic data that preserves stylized facts and supports robust trading strategies.
We define composite DAHA-superpolynomials of torus knots, depending on pairs of Young diagrams and generalizing the composite HOMFLY-PT polynomials in the theory of the skein of the annulus. We provide various examples. Our superpolynomials extend the DAHA-Jones (refined) polynomials and satisfy all standard symmetries…
Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast, memory-less transition networks or Markov Chain data, which refers to one-step transit…
Fast detection of changepoints in linear regression models.
problem Early detection of changes in linear regression models.
method Heavy-weighted CUSUM statistics and composite statistics.
result Effective detection of changepoints regardless of their location.
New filters match advanced composition for adaptive privacy, with practical constants.
problem Limitations of existing adaptive composition methods.
method Constructed new filters and odometers that match advanced composition rates, including constants.
result Achieved fully adaptive privacy with practical filters and odometers.
AutoBayes simplifies variational inference by composing models and optimizing them.
problem Generalized variational inference complexities and optimization challenges.
method Compositional framework exploiting chain rules for automatic differentiation.
result Optimized models and parameterized statistical games can be locally optimized.