RTE enables extrapolation to new tasks by learning task transformations.
problem Learning systems struggle to generalize to unseen tasks.
method Relational Task Extrapolator (RTE) learns task transformations to enable extrapolation.
result RTE substantially outperforms existing approaches on extrapolation tasks.
Study shows LLMs can extrapolate rules from out-of-distribution prompts.
problem Understanding LLMs' ability to generalize from unexpected inputs.
method Formal languages and rule-based scenarios to evaluate LLMs' OOD behavior.
result LLMs can extrapolate rules from out-of-distribution prompts, even in complex scenarios.
The generalization properties of Gaussian processes depend heavily on the choice of kernel, and this choice remains a dark art. We present the Neural Kernel Network (NKN), a flexible family of kernels represented by a neural network. The NKN architecture is based on the composition rules for kernels, so that each unit …
FeDualEx tackles saddle point optimization in federated learning with composite objectives.
problem Saddle point optimization with constraints and non-smooth regularization in federated learning.
method Federated Dual Extrapolation (FeDualEx) algorithm for saddle point optimization and composite objectives.
result FeDualEx effectively solves saddle point optimization problems with composite objectives in federated learning.
Paper tackles multi-object reinforcement learning, improving skill extrapolation.
problem Learning robust manipulation tasks in multi-object settings.
method Introduces a linear relation network module to enhance skill generalization.
result Agents can extrapolate and generalize to any new object number, scaling linearly.
Density estimation is a versatile technique underlying many data mining tasks and techniques,ranging from exploration and presentation of static data, to probabilistic classification, or identifying changes or irregularities in streaming data. With the pervasiveness of embedded systems and digitisation, this latter typ…
Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an even more challenging problem. In an effort to expand the possible forecasting p…
New findings show disentangled latent representations are not enough for robust compositional generalization.
problem Deep learning models struggle with compositional generalization, especially in out-of-distribution samples.
method Investigated a 2D Gaussian generation task with fully disentangled inputs, then forced disentangled latent representations into full-dimensional output space.
result Forcing disentangled latent representations into full-dimensional output space enables robust compositional generalization.
We propose inertial versions of block coordinate descent methods for solving non-convex non-smooth composite optimization problems. Our methods possess three main advantages compared to current state-of-the-art accelerated first-order methods: (1) they allow using two different extrapolation points to evaluate the grad…
Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirro…
AutoScale improves LLM pre-training by adjusting data mixtures at different scales.
problem Data mixtures that work well at small scales may not perform as well at larger scales.
method AutoScale uses a two-stage approach: fitting a model to predict loss under different compositions and extrapolating optimal compositions to larger scales.
result AutoScale accelerates convergence and improves downstream performance.
Bayesian ARMA model with directional shifts captures structural breaks in compositional time series.
problem Structural breaks in compositional time series due to external shocks or policy changes.
method Developed a Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA model augmented with a directional-shift intervention mechanism.
result The model captures structural breaks through interpretable parameters and produces coherent probabilistic forecasts.
Paper introduces ML tools for guided wave behaviour in composite materials.
problem Difficult assessment of guided wave behaviour in complex materials.
method Data-driven model using Gaussian processes with physical constraints.
result Structured machine learning models offer advantages like extrapolation and physical interpretation.
We extend nonparametric models to handle extrapolation, providing bounds for inference.
problem Challenges in nonparametric statistical inference when evaluating outside the conditioning variable's support.
method Introduced a class of extrapolation assumptions and a consistent estimation procedure to handle extrapolation.
result Validated extrapolation-aware conclusions through various applications and real-world data.
Binary encoding enables neural networks to extrapolate periodic functions.
problem Extrapolating periodic functions without prior knowledge of their form.
method Normalized Base-2 Encoding (NB2E) for continuous numerical values.
result MLPs using NB2E can successfully extrapolate diverse periodic signals.
Method controls extrapolation in prediction profiles for statistical and machine learning models.
problem Avoiding invalid predictions due to extrapolation in prediction profiles.
method Genetic algorithm optimization over constrained factor regions.
result Optimal factor settings without constraint are often invalid and extrapolated.
Neural networks struggle with extrapolation, but a new framework allows them to learn counterfactual invariances.
problem Neural networks' inability to extrapolate beyond training data distribution.
method Introduces a learning framework that allows neural networks to extrapolate over group transformations based on counterfactual invariances.
result Neural networks can learn counterfactual invariances from a single environment, overcoming their limitations in extrapolation.
New methods reduce extrapolation errors in feature importance.
problem Flawed feature importance methods using unrestricted permutations lead to extrapolation errors.
method Three new approaches: conditional model reliance, Knockoffs with Gaussian transformation, and restricted ALE plot designs.
result Theoretical and numerical results show our strategies reduce/eliminate extrapolation.
New models extrapolate false alarms in ASV without new data.
problem Reliable extrapolation of false alarm rates in ASV without new speaker data.
method Generative models in ASV score space for arbitrary systems.
result Models accurately extrapolate false alarm rates for large speaker populations.
Neural networks extrapolate poorly in simple tasks but succeed in complex ones.
problem Understanding neural networks' extrapolation capabilities and conditions for success.
method Analyzing ReLU MLPs and GNNs, connecting to neural tangent kernel.
result ReLU MLPs learn linear functions but not most nonlinear ones, while GNNs succeed in complex tasks due to task-specific non-linearities.
A new principle for extrapolating regression outside training data.
problem Regression extrapolation when predictions are outside training data range.
method Data-adaptive marginal transformation and simple relationship assumption.
result Progression method offers guarantees on approximation error beyond training data range.
We extend return extrapolation to incorporate asymmetry and saturation, finding that asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation leads to lower welfare loss.
problem Optimal portfolio choice under stochastic volatility
method Smooth, nonlinear extrapolation function with sentiment and variance hedging
result Lower welfare loss with asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation
Logical neural networks solve mazes by filling dead ends, but not all methods generalize well.
problem Understanding how logical neural networks extrapolate solutions to mazes.
method Examined recurrent and implicit neural networks trained on maze-solving tasks.
result Models fail to generalize well to diverse maze sizes, suggesting limitations in learning scalable algorithms.
Accelerates Riemannian gradient methods with extrapolation.
problem Optimizing functions on manifolds efficiently.
method Extrapolating iterates in Riemannian gradient descent.
result Achieves optimal convergence rate and computational advantage.
Improves reinforcement learning extrapolation in Gridworlds.
problem Generalizing to unseen states in reinforcement learning.
method Avoiding deterministic action choice, using ego-centric representation, incorporating symmetry, and adding an entropy term.
result Significant improvement in extrapolation performance in Gridworld environments.
This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural-language text. Our approach treats unknown regression…
New methods improve neural network extrapolation to long sequences.
problem Neural networks struggle with extrapolation to very long or adversarial sequences.
method Activation binning and localized differentiable memory architecture.
result No extrapolation errors detected within memory constraints.
Concept modulation models unify identifiability and extrapolation in conditional latent variable models.
problem Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models
method Concept modulation models (CMMs) with structure AoΛoCoX result Lifts identifiability to conditional settings and controls extrapolation through attribute potentials.
New framework shows ERM is optimal for both interpolation and extrapolation in domain generalization.
problem Formalizing and solving the challenges of domain generalization.
method Reformulated domain generalization as an online game between a risk-minimizing player and an adversary.
result ERM is minimax-optimal for both interpolation and extrapolation in domain generalization.
NSR enables neural networks to reason with continuous numbers and extrapolate.
problem Quantitative reasoning and extrapolation in neural networks.
method Proposes Neural Status Register (NSR) for continuous number reasoning.
result NSR achieves extrapolation to numbers many orders of magnitude larger than training data.
Extends return extrapolation to nonlinear, asymmetric functions under stochastic volatility.
problem Behavioral anomalies in portfolio choice under stochastic volatility.
method Smooth, nonlinear, asymmetric extrapolation function; CRRA investor; Heston stochastic volatility; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation; Numerical solutions (finite-difference ADI, deep learning-driven iterative).
result Saturation acts as an endogenous correction mechanism, reducing welfare loss.
This paper explores conditions for neural networks to extrapolate to new domains.
problem Understanding when neural networks can extrapolate to unseen domains.
method Analyzes conditions for nonlinear models to extrapolate under specific distribution shifts.
result Neural networks of the form f(x)=∑fi(xi) can extrapolate if feature covariance is well-conditioned. The paper explores how to extrapolate from limited data points using causal mechanisms.
problem Handling distribution shifts with limited target samples.
method Formulates the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model embodying the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms, and identifies conditions for identification.
result Theoretical understanding and practical methods for extrapolation without requiring an on-support target distribution.
Diverging Flows detects extrapolations in flow models, ensuring reliable predictions.
problem Flow models extrapolate into invalid data, leading to silent failures.
method Structurally enforce inefficient transport for off-manifold inputs.
result Effective detection of extrapolations without compromising predictive fidelity or inference latency.
Proposes a new method to avoid model extrapolation in Shapley values.
problem Model extrapolation in marginal Shapley values leads to unreliable explanations.
method Proposes a new approach that avoids model extrapolation using marginal averaging and causal information.
result Demonstrates the impacts of model extrapolation on Shapley values and proposes a new method to avoid it.
Paper tackles intervention extrapolation using identifiable representations.
problem Predicting effects of unseen interventions on outcomes.
method Combines identifiable representation learning with autoencoders to enforce linear invariance.
result Identifiable representations enable non-linear extrapolation of interventions.
Paper improves PINNs' extrapolation by TL and adaptive AFs.
problem PINNs' poor extrapolation performance and sensitivity to AFs.
method Transfer learning within an extended domain and adaptive activation functions.
result Average 40% reduction in relative L2 error and 50% in mean absolute error in extrapolation domain.
We present a framework on how to hedge the interest rate sensitivity of liabilities discounted by an extrapolated yield curve. The framework is based on functional analysis in that we consider the extrapolated yield curve as a functional of an observed yield curve and use its Gâteaux variation to understand the sensiti…
The paper tackles extrapolation in generative models by enforcing independence of mechanisms.
problem How to make generative models extrapolate to new, unseen environments?
method Developed a theoretical framework for independence of mechanisms, demonstrated on toy examples and real-world data.
result Extrapolation capabilities of generative models can be improved by enforcing independence of mechanisms explicitly during training.
Methodology extrapolates wind fields from sparse data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extrapolating wind fields from limited measurements with uncertainty.
method Nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning for sparse/incomplete data.
result Enhanced extrapolation accuracy, even in high-dimensional data.
BiPE blends intra-segment and inter-segment encodings for better length extrapolation.
problem Improving length extrapolation in language models.
method Bilevel Positional Encoding (BiPE) that separates intra-segment and inter-segment encodings.
result BiPE enhances length extrapolation across various text modalities.
Neural networks are surprisingly good at interpolating and perform remarkably well when the training set examples resemble those in the test set. However, they are often unable to extrapolate patterns beyond the seen data, even when the abstractions required for such patterns are simple. In this paper, we first review …
STMT predicts compounds in unknown areas with trend reflection.
problem Predicting properties of unknown compounds in the extrapolation area.
method Stochastic Threshold Model Trees (STMT) that reflects data trends.
result STMT improves prediction accuracy for one compound in the extrapolation area.
A new method improves language model extrapolation without changing training.
problem Improving language model performance on sequences not seen during training.
method Perturbation-based training procedure for language models.
result The method consistently improves out-of-support prediction.
We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
problem Estimating the probability of extreme precipitation events with limited data.
method Modeling Peaks Over Thresholds with an exponential distribution and using martingale testing for evaluation.
result Our method outperforms other approaches in estimating extreme precipitation events.
Choosing the most adequate kernel is crucial in many Machine Learning applications. Gaussian Process is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification that heavily relies on a kernel function. However, in the Gaussian Process literature, kernels have usually been either ad hoc designed, selected from a …
We propose probabilistic models that can extrapolate learning curves of iterative machine learning algorithms, such as stochastic gradient descent for training deep networks, based on training data with variable-length learning curves. We study instantiations of this framework based on random forests and Bayesian recur…
Extreme value theory enhances statistical learning extrapolation for rare events.
problem Challenges in traditional machine learning methods for extreme data.
method Asymptotic theory and statistical tools for tail behavior.
result Effective extrapolation methods for extreme quantiles and anomalies.