Paper tackles complex risk in deep neural networks.
problem Complex risk in deep neural networks.
method Developed new approach for complex risk statistics.
result Derived dual representation for complex risk.
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48 results for “complex risk”
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with entropic risk measures and generative models.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in discounted MDPs with recursive entropic risk measures.
method Introduced Model-Based ERM -Value Iteration (MB-RS-QVI) and derived PAC bounds on sample complexity for value and policy learning.
result PAC bounds show exponential dependence on , with tight bounds in and .
The paper analyzes risk bounds and Rademacher complexity in batch RL.
problem Estimating/minimizing Bellman error with general value function approximation.
method Characterizes generalization performance using Rademacher complexities of function classes.
result Risk bounds and Rademacher complexities provide insights into batch RL.
Risk diversification is one of the dominant concerns for portfolio managers. Various portfolio constructions have been proposed to minimize the risk of the portfolio under some constrains including expected returns. We propose a portfolio construction method that incorporates the complex valued principal component anal…
Improved Sample Complexity For Diffusion Model Training Without Empirical Risk Minimizer Accesscs.LG
Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.
problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.
Quantum method calculates risk contributions in credit portfolios efficiently.
problem Quantifying risk concentration in subgroups of a credit portfolio.
method Quantum algorithm for simultaneous estimation of multiple expected values.
result Quantum method scales better than classical methods for finely divided subgroups.
Trade-offs and synergies in managing coastal flood risk: A case study for New York Cityphysics.ao-ph
Study finds more flood risk strategies can improve outcomes in NYC.
problem Managing future flood risks with complex models.
method Used an intermediate complexity model to analyze flood risk strategies.
result More combinations of risk mitigation strategies expand the solution set and improve outcomes.
Paper extends learning theory to dependent data with uniform risk bounds.
problem Learning with dependent data sequences.
method Derives uniform risk bounds for dependent data using VC-dimension and Rademacher complexity.
result Standard classification risk bounds hold for dependent data, same as for independent data.
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of "2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization" by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
How connected is too connected? Impact of network topology on systemic risk and collapse of complex economic systemsphysics.soc-ph
Modeling how network connectivity affects economic collapse and robustness.
problem Impact of network topology on systemic risk and collapse of complex economic systems.
method Proposed a model to study the effects of network structure on economic systems by varying connectivity.
result Emergent systemic risks arise with increased interconnections, leading to phase transitions and tipping points.
Method analyzes complexity of empirical risk landscapes for generalized linear models.
problem Understanding the complexity of empirical risk landscapes in generalized linear models.
method Kac-Rice method and replicated method from theoretical physics.
result Explicit variational formulas for the number of critical points of empirical risk landscapes.
GNN improves financial risk detection in dynamic networks.
problem Complex, changing financial networks make traditional risk identification methods ineffective.
method Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for embedded representation learning of financial data.
result GNN enhances the detection of hidden risks and abnormal behaviors in financial networks.
The quest for diversification has led to an increasing number of complex funds with a high number of strategies and non-linear payoffs. The new generation of Alternative Risk Premia (ARP) funds are an example that has been very popular in recent years. For complex funds like these, a Reverse Stress Test (RST) is regard…
Quantum reservoirs risk bounds are analyzed using Rademacher complexity.
problem Bounding generalization errors of quantum reservoirs.
method Using Rademacher complexity, specific bounds are derived for quantum reservoir classes.
result Risk bounds converge with increasing training samples and qubits.
New method reduces CVA-VaR computation complexity.
problem Efficiently estimating CVA-VaR for financial risk management.
method Multilevel nested simulation for probabilities.
result 3 orders of magnitude reduction in computational complexity.
This work analyzes IRM and ERM from sample complexity perspective, revealing different behaviors under various distribution shifts.
problem Choosing between IRM and ERM for OOD generalization.
method Sample complexity analysis comparing IRM and ERM under different data generation mechanisms.
result IRM is preferred over ERM for certain distribution shifts, leading to better OOD generalization.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper bounded in terms of data-independent Rademacher complexity; for generalized Baye…
Paper proposes a CNN model for improved multi-asset portfolio risk prediction.
problem Challenges in risk management of multi-asset portfolios due to limited correlation capture.
method Uses CNN and image processing to convert financial data into images for enhanced feature extraction.
result CNN model significantly outperforms traditional methods in risk prediction accuracy.
Study mirrors descent's early stopping for linear and kernel models, improving risk guarantees.
problem Understanding the statistical performance of early-stopped mirror descent algorithms.
method Characterized convexity of squared loss, identified link between offset Rademacher complexities and mirror descent convergence.
result Excess risk guarantees for mirror descent iterates traced by the path, expressed in terms of offset complexities.
A property, or statistical functional, is said to be elicitable if it minimizes expected loss for some loss function. The study of which properties are elicitable sheds light on the capabilities and limitations of point estimation and empirical risk minimization. While recent work asks which properties are elicitable, …
Improved multi-group learning with group-realizable concepts.
problem Enhancing multi-group learning efficiency.
method Empirical risk minimization over group-realizable concepts.
result Improved sample complexity in group-realizable settings.
Complexity helps identify sparse risk factors in asset pricing.
problem Tension between feature richness and economic parsimony in high-dimensional asset pricing.
method Expanding feature space and using basis pursuit to discover sparse risk factors.
result Nonlinear feature expansions combined with basis pursuit yield superior out-of-sample performance.
Local SGD proves efficient in overparameterized linear regression.
problem Efficiently learning overparameterized linear models in distributed settings.
method Distributed SGD (DSGD) with overparameterized models.
result Excess risk of SGD is smaller than ridge regression in the same sample complexity.
Decision-Making Frameworks for Network Resilience -- Managing and Mitigating Systemic (Cyber) Riskq-fin.RM
Framework for managing cyber risks in networks.
problem Managing systemic cyber risks in digital networks.
method Three components: acceptable configurations, risk mitigation interventions, and cost function.
result Effective decision-making for network resilience.
ReSGA model improves VaR and ES forecasting with millions of parameters.
problem Limited parameter models are vulnerable to big data.
method Retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA) with millions of parameters.
result ReSGA outperforms competitors in VaR and ES forecasting.
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with Lipschitz dynamic risk measures, establishing regret bounds.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes.
method Two model-based algorithms for Lipschitz dynamic risk measures, focusing on regret bounds.
result Upper bounds demonstrate optimal dependencies on actions and episodes, reflecting risk sensitivity vs. sample complexity trade-off.
New bounds for non-convex estimators without Bernstein condition.
problem Sharp excess risk bounds for non-convex and improper estimators.
method Exponential-tail local Rademacher complexity risk bounds with offset condition.
result Sharp bounds for non-convex and improper estimators without Bernstein condition.
Paper uses TDA to assess cryptocurrency risk by measuring phase space instability.
problem Traditional risk measures fail to capture market dynamics' geometric structure.
method Applied Takens' Delay Embedding Theorem to generate point cloud, computed persistent homology groups, defined Topological Persistence Norm.
result Proposed leverage calibration heuristic based on persistence of 1-dimensional cycles.
New method for interpreting financial model risks.
problem Fairly allocating risk in financial models.
method Extending Shapley value framework for axiomatic risk attribution.
result Risk can be well allocated in financial models.
Novel framework for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with robustness against uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with uncertainty in transition dynamics.
method Developed a risk-sensitive robust Markov decision process (RSRMDP), derived its Bellman equation, and proposed a Bayesian Dynamic Programming (Bayesian DP) algorithm.
result Demonstrated convergence to near-optimal policies and analyzed sample and computational complexities.
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Equal Risk Pricing and Hedging under Dynamic Expectile Risk Measuresq-fin.PR
Deep RL solves dynamic risk pricing for complex financial models.
problem Dynamic risk measures in financial derivatives pricing.
method Deterministic actor-critic deep reinforcement learning (ACRL) for time-consistent expectile risk.
result High-quality hedging policies and prices for complex financial instruments.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Paper proposes efficient method for estimating risk measures in complex models.
problem Accurately estimating distortion risk measures in computationally expensive models.
method Integrates importance sampling and machine learning for efficient Monte Carlo estimation.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in computational cost for estimating risk measures.
A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimationq-fin.CP
A new algorithm estimates VaR and ES for financial risks.
problem Estimating Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for financial losses.
method Multilevel Stochastic Approximation (MLSA) scheme for nested stochastic approximation problems.
result Optimal complexities for VaR and ES estimation are derived.
On the Sample Complexity of Discounted Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalentscs.LG
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with optimized certainty equivalents.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in finite discounted MDPs.
method Analyzed a simple model-based approach and derived PAC sample complexity bounds.
result Established tight sample complexity bounds for value and policy learning.
A Theory of the Risk for Optimization with Relaxation and its Application to Support Vector Machinescs.LG
New results on risk estimation for SVM and related methods.
problem Estimating risk in support vector machine applications.
method Expanding relaxation theory to support vector methods and analyzing their generalization ability.
result Risk approaches ratio of complexity to data sample size as sample size increases.
New SigSwap model for path-dependent financial risk.
problem Managing complex, path-dependent financial risks.
method Geometry-based approach using path-signature and Signature Expected Shortfall.
result Path-dependent risks can be converted into transparent risk factors.
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the present pap…
Tree tensor networks balance model complexity and empirical risk for high-dimensional function approximation.
problem Selecting optimal tree structure and ranks for high-dimensional function approximation.
method Proposes a complexity-based model selection method for tree tensor networks in empirical risk minimization.
result Demonstrates near-minimax adaptive performance across various smoothness classes.
Improved multilevel scheme for value-at-risk computation.
problem Discontinuity in Heaviside function affects value-at-risk computation.
method Adaptive multilevel stochastic approximation to mitigate discontinuity.
result Best complexity improved to O().
Financial networks reveal systemic risk, suggesting new regulatory strategies.
problem Global financial interconnectedness and inadequacy of traditional risk models.
method Network-based models of financial systems to understand contagion and risk.
result Financial networks exhibit 'robust-yet-fragile' properties, informing cost-effective regulation.
Improved analysis for extreme multi-class CRL with better sample complexity.
problem Theoretical sample complexity of CRL in extreme multi-class settings is poorly understood.
method Improved U-Statistics estimator to capture class concentration, proving sample complexity.
result Sample complexity is for extreme multi-class learning, independent of class distribution.
New method refines model-free evaluation of complex machine learning models.
problem Evaluating the excess risk of opaque machine learning predictors.
method Perturbing derivatives to create pseudo-outcomes and refitting the model twice.
result Upper bound on excess risk derived efficiently without prior function class knowledge.