A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Competency questions help experts select best clustering for energy data.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
Improves online learning with expert demonstrations, quality matters.
We study the problem of prediction for evolving graph data. We formulate the problem as the minimization of a convex objective encouraging sparsity and low-rank of the solution, that reflect natural graph properties. The convex formulation allows to obtain oracle inequalities and efficient solvers. We provide empirical…
Models necessarily capture only parts of a reality. Prediction models aim at capturing a future reality. In this paper we address the question of how the future is constructed (or: imagined) in an investment context where market participants form expectations on the returns of a risky investment. We observe that the pa…
PyFi uses adversarial agents to train VLMs on financial image understanding.
Autonomous multiple tasks learning is a fundamental capability to develop versatile artificial agents that can act in complex environments. In real-world scenarios, tasks may be interrelated (or "hierarchical") so that a robot has to first learn to achieve some of them to set the preconditions for learning other ones. …
Efficient human resource management needs accurate assessment and representation of available competences as well as effective mapping of required competences for specific jobs and positions. In this regard, appropriate definition and identification of competence gaps express differences between acquired and required c…
AI beats 95% of humans in Rock-Paper-Scissors.
Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques aim to select locally competent classifiers for the classification of each new test sample. Most DES techniques estimate the competence of classifiers using a given criterion over the region of competence of the test sample (its the nearest neighbors in the validation set). T…
Estimating machine learning performance 'in the wild' is both an important and unsolved problem. In this paper, we seek to examine, understand, and predict the pointwise competence of classification models. Our contributions are twofold: First, we establish a statistically rigorous definition of competence that general…
Dynamic regressor selection (DRS) systems work by selecting the most competent regressors from an ensemble to estimate the target value of a given test pattern. This competence is usually quantified using the performance of the regressors in local regions of the feature space around the test pattern. However, choosing …
To make AI systems broadly useful for challenging real-world tasks, we need them to learn complex human goals and preferences. One approach to specifying complex goals asks humans to judge during training which agent behaviors are safe and useful, but this approach can fail if the task is too complicated for a human to…
Comprisk simplifies competing-risks analysis in Python.
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiabil…
Given the success of the gated recurrent unit, a natural question is whether all the gates of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network are necessary. Previous research has shown that the forget gate is one of the most important gates in the LSTM. Here we show that a forget-gate-only version of the LSTM with chrono-ini…
This paper uses neural networks to accurately model competing risks in survival analysis.
Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
HACSurv models dependencies between competing risks and censoring for improved survival analysis.
PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.
New method for discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
In Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques, only the most competent classifiers are selected to classify a given query sample. Hence, the key issue in DES is how to estimate the competence of each classifier in a pool to select the most competent ones. In order to deal with this issue, we proposed a novel dynamic e…
Dynamic ensemble selection systems work by estimating the level of competence of each classifier from a pool of classifiers. Only the most competent ones are selected to classify a given test sample. This is achieved by defining a criterion to measure the level of competence of a base classifier, such as, its accuracy …
The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.
CoPhy-PGNN tackles competing PG losses in neural networks for solving eigenvalue problems.
Paper introduces Decentralized Non-stationary Competing Bandits ( exttt{DNCB}) for dynamic matching markets.
Paper proposes FinAR-Bench to evaluate LLMs in financial analysis tasks.
SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with GPU Data
In this article three models of firms interaction on the market are described. One of these models is described by using a differential equation and by Lotka-Volterra model, where the equation has a different form. Also, there are models of non-competing and competing firms. The article presents an algorithm for solvin…
Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. …
SurvTRACE uses transformers to analyze survival times with competing events.
The recent trend for acquiring big data assumes that possessing quantitatively more and qualitatively finer data necessarily provides an advantage that may be critical in competitive situations. Using a model complex adaptive system where agents compete for a limited resource using information coarse-grained to differe…
In dynamic selection (DS) techniques, only the most competent classifiers, for the classification of a specific test sample are selected to predict the sample's class labels. The more important step in DES techniques is estimating the competence of the base classifiers for the classification of each specific test sampl…
Ensembling improves performance when classifiers disagree more than average.
A competing market model with a polyvariant profit function that assumes "zeitnot" stock behavior of clients is formulated within the banking portfolio medium and then analyzed from the perspective of devising optimal strategies. An associated Markov process method for finding an optimal choice strategy for monovariant…
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
Is it possible to predict the motivation of players just by observing their gameplay data? Even if so, how should we measure motivation in the first place? To address the above questions, on the one end, we collect a large dataset of gameplay data from players of the popular game Tom Clancy's The Division. On the other…
SurvLatent ODE predicts VTE risk for cancer patients, outperforming current methods.
Despite being very effective in several classification tasks, Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques can select classifiers that classify all samples in the region of competence as being from the same class. The Frienemy Indecision REgion DES (FIRE-DES) tackles this problem by pre-selecting classifiers that correc…
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
How does supply uncertainty affect the structure of supply chain networks? To answer this question we consider a setting where retailers and suppliers must establish a costly relationship with each other prior to engaging in trade. Suppliers, with uncertain yield, announce wholesale prices, while retailers must decide …
Dynamic ensemble selection (DES) techniques work by estimating the level of competence of each classifier from a pool of classifiers. Only the most competent ones are selected to classify a given test sample. Hence, the key issue in DES is the criterion used to estimate the level of competence of the classifiers in pre…
Machine learning is often used in competitive scenarios: Participants learn and fit static models, and those models compete in a shared platform. The common assumption is that in order to win a competition one has to have the best predictive model, i.e., the model with the smallest out-sample error. Is that necessarily…