A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method detects intrinsic cross-correlations in non-stationary time series affected by common factors.
Study shows stock price interactions increase during crises due to external stimulus.
Paper proposes AI for stock market forecasting using external knowledge.
StockAgent uses AI to simulate real-world stock trading, analyzing external factors and profitability.
When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using classic detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover…
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a…
Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
Understanding generalization in reinforcement learning (RL) is a significant challenge, as many common assumptions of traditional supervised learning theory do not apply. We focus on the special class of reparameterizable RL problems, where the trajectory distribution can be decomposed using the reparametrization trick…
Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.
In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference (VI), while the spatial information is captured by the graph convolutional netw…
We study the problem of learning graphical models with latent variables. We give the first algorithm for learning locally consistent (ferromagnetic or antiferromagnetic) Restricted Boltzmann Machines (or RBMs) with {\em arbitrary} external fields. Our algorithm has optimal dependence on dimension in the sample complexi…
New estimator improves ATT estimation efficiency with external controls.
The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model …
The notion of \emph{policy regret} in online learning is a well defined? performance measure for the common scenario of adaptive adversaries, which more traditional quantities such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit the notion of policy regret and first show that there are online learning settings …
For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…
The study measures systemic risk using common and tail dependence factors.
Proposes D-CDLF for multi-view data decomposition.
Model shows PoS networks can be captured by external finance, leading to centralization.
A transfer learning method builds high-dimensional models using disparate datasets.
Study confirms sparse coding in whole brain using MRI data.
Paper analyzes tech adoption in financial networks, finding key leadership and diffusion dynamics.
Spatio-temporal (ST) data for urban applications, such as taxi demand, traffic flow, regional rainfall is inherently stochastic and unpredictable. Recently, deep learning based ST prediction models are proposed to learn the ST characteristics of data. However, it is still very challenging (1) to adequately learn the co…
A mixture of common skew-t factor analyzers model is introduced for model-based clustering of high-dimensional data. By assuming common component factor loadings, this model allows clustering to be performed in the presence of a large number of mixture components or when the number of dimensions is too large to be well…
NestedVAE isolates common factors from paired images without additional supervision.
A representative model in integrative analysis of two high-dimensional correlated datasets is to decompose each data matrix into a low-rank common matrix generated by latent factors shared across datasets, a low-rank distinctive matrix corresponding to each dataset, and an additive noise matrix. Existing decomposition …
Paper develops a new estimator for high-dimensional panel data with common shocks.
Study finds significant premium for low-beta stocks in firm-level idiosyncratic return distributions.
Given a knowledge base or KB containing (noisy) facts about common nouns or generics, such as "all trees produce oxygen" or "some animals live in forests", we consider the problem of inferring additional such facts at a precision similar to that of the starting KB. Such KBs capture general knowledge about the world, an…
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
Extract common latent factors from graphs for better representation learning.
New method improves deep CCA by modeling private components conditionally independent of common factors.
For common people, in contrast to brokers, bankers, and those who play on rising and falling prices of stocks, the stock market law is based on the simple fact that the depositors aim for financial profit at any given concrete stage. The common depositor cannot cause any significant variations in prices. This concept s…
Proves common stellar subdivisions for all PL homeomorphic polyhedra.
Dynamic factor analysis reveals insights into Philippine stock market dynamics.
A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price formation to study the price dynamics induced by several commonly used financial trading…
The vast majority of current machine learning algorithms are designed to predict single responses or a vector of responses, yet many types of response are more naturally organized as matrices or higher-order tensor objects where characteristics are shared across modes. We present a new machine learning algorithm BaTFLE…
Latent factor models for recommender systems represent users and items as low dimensional vectors. Privacy risks of such systems have previously been studied mostly in the context of recovery of personal information in the form of usage records from the training data. However, the user representations themselves may be…
Develops FGL for better portfolio allocation under common factor influence.
Knowledge graph construction consists of two tasks: extracting information from external resources (knowledge population) and inferring missing information through a statistical analysis on the extracted information (knowledge completion). In many cases, insufficient external resources in the knowledge population hinde…
Ultrasonic guided waves are commonly used to localize structural damage in infrastructures such as buildings, airplanes, bridges. Damage localization can be viewed as an inverse problem. Physical model based techniques are popular for guided wave based damage localization. The performance of these techniques depend on …
Margin trading in which investors purchase shares with money borrowed from brokers is blamed to be a major cause of the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. We propose a cascading failure model and examine how an increase in margin trading increases share price vulnerability. The model is based on a bipartite graph of inve…
This work explains crises in markets without external news using bounded rational agents.
Study analyzes GDP growth of CEE countries using time-varying coefficients.
We study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, correlation increases, and, at the same time, vari…
Study finds it hard to establish common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
Sparse GFA identifies disease factors in FTD subgroups.
In this study, we have investigated factors of determination which can affect the connected structure of a stock network. The representative index for topological properties of a stock network is the number of links with other stocks. We used the multi-factor model, extensively acknowledged in financial literature. In …