A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Decentralized mechanism for collective predictions without sharing data or models.
Gradient boosting of regression trees is a competitive procedure for learning predictive models of continuous data that fits the data with an additive non-parametric model. The classic version of gradient boosting assumes that the data is independent and identically distributed. However, relational data with interdepen…
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out-of-sample on synthetic minority and majority game…
Automatic detection of emotion has the potential to revolutionize mental health and wellbeing. Recent work has been successful in predicting affect from unimodal electrocardiogram (ECG) data. However, to be immediately relevant for real-world applications, physiology-based emotion detection must make use of ubiquitous …
Learning by integrating multiple heterogeneous data sources is a common requirement in many tasks. Collective Matrix Factorization (CMF) is a technique to learn shared latent representations from arbitrary collections of matrices. It can be used to simultaneously complete one or more matrices, for predicting the unknow…
CUDC collects diverse data for offline RL by predicting future states.
Acute respiratory infections have epidemic and pandemic potential and thus are being studied worldwide, albeit in many different contexts and study formats. Predicting infection from symptom data is critical, though using symptom data from varied studies in aggregate is challenging because the data is collected in diff…
The fast demographic growth, together with the concentration of the population in cities and the increasing amount of daily waste, are factors that push to the limit the ability of waste assimilation by Nature. Therefore, we need technological means to make an optimal management of the waste collection process, which r…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
New methods predict walking patterns from accelerometer data.
Predicting the efficacy of a drug for a given individual, using high-dimensional genomic measurements, is at the core of precision medicine. However, identifying features on which to base the predictions remains a challenge, especially when the sample size is small. Incorporating expert knowledge offers a promising alt…
Approach collects missing outcomes to improve fairness in classification.
This paper evaluates how different imputation methods affect predictive models.
Active learning reduces smart meter data needs for better electric load predictions.
An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. …
Spatial-temporal prediction is a fundamental problem for constructing smart city, which is useful for tasks such as traffic control, taxi dispatching, and environmental policy making. Due to data collection mechanism, it is common to see data collection with unbalanced spatial distributions. For example, some cities ma…
Large dataset released for ITE and UM research.
Recent attempts to achieve fairness in predictive models focus on the balance between fairness and accuracy. In sensitive applications such as healthcare or criminal justice, this trade-off is often undesirable as any increase in prediction error could have devastating consequences. In this work, we argue that the fair…
This work explores the ability of collective matrix factorization models in recommender systems to make predictions about users and items for which there is side information available but no feedback or interactions data, and proposes a new formulation with a faster cold-start prediction formula that can be used in rea…
A universal collection of 4 invariants improves neural network accuracy for molecular dynamics.
Intrusion detection for computer network systems has been becoming one of the most critical tasks for network administrators today. It has an important role for organizations, governments and our society due to the valuable resources hosted on computer networks. Traditional misuse detection strategies are unable to det…
Generative model predicts NFT collection transactions based on early history.
Paper proposes a new loss function for PU learning without negative examples.
Improved disability insurance model with collective health claims.
Study shows small groups can influence machine learning algorithms.
The group membership prediction (GMP) problem involves predicting whether or not a collection of instances share a certain semantic property. For instance, in kinship verification given a collection of images, the goal is to predict whether or not they share a {\it familial} relationship. In this context we propose a n…
In this paper, we study the novel problem of not only predicting ingredients from a food image, but also predicting the relative amounts of the detected ingredients. We propose two prediction-based models using deep learning that output sparse and dense predictions, coupled with important semi-automatic multi-database …
New algorithms reduce label collection for online prediction with expert advice.
The literature on structured prediction for NLP describes a rich collection of distributions and algorithms over sequences, segmentations, alignments, and trees; however, these algorithms are difficult to utilize in deep learning frameworks. We introduce Torch-Struct, a library for structured prediction designed to tak…
Study predicts Euroleague basketball games with simple models, less accurate than crowds.
Improved statistical inference for expensive data using machine learning predictions.
We present an adversarial active exploration for inverse dynamics model learning, a simple yet effective learning scheme that incentivizes exploration in an environment without any human intervention. Our framework consists of a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent and an inverse dynamics model contesting with each …
Combines BART and Gaussian process for spatial covariate prediction with uncertainty.
This review explores the use of machine learning in discovering collective variables for biomolecular dynamics.
A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand, discounting statistical fluctuations. This problem can be approached using two p…
Automatic prediction of emotion promises to revolutionise human-computer interaction. Recent trends involve fusion of multiple data modalities - audio, visual, and physiological - to classify emotional state. However, in practice, collection of physiological data `in the wild' is currently limited to heartbeat time ser…
Within Reinforcement Learning, there is a growing collection of research which aims to express all of an agent's knowledge of the world through predictions about sensation, behaviour, and time. This work can be seen not only as a collection of architectural proposals, but also as the beginnings of a theory of machine k…
Non-experts have long made important contributions to machine learning (ML) by contributing training data, and recent work has shown that non-experts can also help with feature engineering by suggesting novel predictive features. However, non-experts have only contributed features to prediction tasks already posed by e…
Due to their ubiquitous and pervasive nature, Wi-Fi networks have the potential to collect large-scale, low-cost, and disaggregate data on multimodal transportation. In this study, we develop a semi-supervised deep residual network (ResNet) framework to utilize Wi-Fi communications obtained from smartphones for the pur…
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
With the emergence of diverse data collection techniques, objects in real applications can be represented as multi-modal features. What's more, objects may have multiple semantic meanings. Multi-modal and Multi-label (MMML) problem becomes a universal phenomenon. The quality of data collected from different channels ar…
Modeling student behaviors and multiple predictions for early intervention.
Unified model combines neural networks and dictionary learning for clinical predictions from brain data.
Study shows annotation instrument design affects model performance in hate speech detection.
New framework embeds physics in coarse-grained models without big data.
Workplace injuries result in substantial human and financial losses. As reported by the International Labour Organization (ILO), there are more than 374 million work-related injuries reported every year. In this study, we investigate the problem of injury risk prediction and prevention in a work environment. While inju…
Weibo experts predict stock market better than non-experts.
Deep model integrates MRI and DTI for autism severity prediction.