The paper proposes a new method to measure risk with fine-grained tail sensitivity.
problem Risk measures that do not account for tail sensitivity are insufficient for machine learning systems.
method The approach involves specifying a reference distribution with desired tail behavior and constructing risk measures compatible with this upper probability.
result Risk measures with fine-grained tail sensitivity can replace the expectation operator in machine learning systems.
We give a complete characterization of both comonotone and not comonotone coherent risk measures in the discrete finite probability space, where each outcome is equally likely. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that characterizes \textit{and} distinguishes comonotone and not comonotone coherent risk …
The study finds an upper limit for the number of minimal origami pairs on a surface.
problem Counting the minimal origami pairs on a surface of genus g.
method Algorithm to count minimal origami pairs and using Ménage Problem to establish an upper bound.
result Established a new upper bound for the count of minimal origami pairs.
In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage property. We show that prices are coherent if and only if the set of pricing measure…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage property. We show that prices are coherent if and only if the set of pricing measure…
Improved prediction of hierarchical time series using structured regularization.
problem Making coherent forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Structured regularization method for bottom-level time series predictions.
result Superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to previous methods.
The study examines Kähler structures on coadjoint orbits of Lie groups using coherent and squeezed states.
problem Does the coadjoint orbits of Lie groups support a Kähler structure?
method Examined three Lie groups: Weyl-Heisenberg, SU(2), and SU(1,1). Used coherent and squeezed states to explore Kähler structures.
result Coherent states provide Kähler embeddings, while squeezed states only symplectic embeddings.
Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.
problem Estimating coherent risk measures in financial contexts.
method Non-standard analysis, hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, plug-in asymptotics.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral plug-in estimators.
New coherence parameter for GNNs with Fourier measurements improves signal recovery.
problem Characterizing generative compressed sensing with Fourier measurements.
method Subspace counting arguments and high-dimensional probability theory.
result First known restricted isometry guarantee for generative compressed sensing with subsampled isometries.
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure …
We study a space of coherent risk measures M_phi obtained as certain expansions of coherent elementary basis measures. In this space, the concept of ``Risk Aversion Function'' phi naturally arises as the spectral representation of each risk measure in a space of functions of confidence level probabilities. We give nece…
Support vector machines (SVMs) naturally embody sparseness due to their use of hinge loss functions. However, SVMs can not directly estimate conditional class probabilities. In this paper we propose and study a family of coherence functions, which are convex and differentiable, as surrogates of the hinge function. The …
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
problem Addressing uncertainty in likelihood for upper probability bounds.
method Generalization of Wasserman and Kadane's result, considering both prior and likelihood uncertainty.
result A sufficient condition for the upper bound to become an equality.
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not …
A certain spectrum, indexed by a\in[0,\infty], of upper bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probability P(X\geq x), with P_0(X;x)=P(X\geq x) and P_\infty(X;x) being the best possible exponential upper bound on P(X\geq x), is shown to be stable and monotonic in a, x, and X, where x is a real number and X is a random variable. T…
Establishes a link between risk measures and uniform integrability in finance.
problem Understanding uniform integrability in the context of financial risk measures.
method Introduces the folding score of distortion risk measures to study uniform integrability directly with gains and losses.
result Obtains three sets of equivalent conditions for uniform integrability involving coherent risk measures.
The paper addresses speckle noise in coherent imaging systems.
problem Speckle noise degrades image quality in coherent imaging systems.
method Theoretical and algorithmic analysis of likelihood-based approaches for multilook coherent imaging.
result Established the first theoretical upper bound on MSE of the maximum likelihood estimator.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
Paper explores PG for MCR, finding suboptimal policies but providing bounds.
problem Optimizing coherent risk in MDPs using PG.
method Developed practical PG implementation using state distribution reweighting.
result PG can learn risk-sensitive policies but suboptimality is common.
New bounds on continuous random variables' right-tail probabilities.
problem Finding precise upper and lower limits for right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Developed new bounds based on PDF, first derivative, and two parameters.
result The new bounds are tight for various continuous random variables.
This paper compares two different frameworks recently introduced in the literature for measuring risk in a multi-period setting. The first corresponds to applying a single coherent risk measure to the cumulative future costs, while the second involves applying a composition of one-step coherent risk mappings. We summar…
Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM) addresses the likelihood trap in LLMs by reshaping the probability distribution before truncation.
problem LLMs fall into the likelihood trap, leading to repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness.
method VCM reshapes the probability distribution before truncation through Contextual Searchlight and Adaptive Self-Debiasing.
result VCM mitigates the likelihood trap across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning.
This paper deals with applications of coherent risk measures to pricing in incomplete markets. Namely, we study the No Good Deals pricing technique based on coherent risk. Two forms of this technique are presented: one defines a good deal as a trade with negative risk; the other one defines a good deal as a trade with …
A parameter-free statistical model is used to study multiplicity signatures for coherent production of charged-pairs of parabosons of order p=2 in comparison with those arising in the case of ordinary bosons, p=1. Two non-negative real parameters arise because "ab" and "ba" are fundamentally distinct pair operators of …
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
New bounds on AE success probability in GP models.
problem Limiting the success of adversarial examples in probabilistic models.
method Investigated upper bounds on AE success probability using Gaussian Processes.
result Proved a new upper bound of AE success probability dependent on perturbation norm, kernel function, and training dataset distance.
Upper bound for max-sliced 2-Wasserstein distance between measures.
problem Estimating distance between probability measures and their empirical counterparts.
method Same technique as previous work, upper bound approach.
result Upper bound for expected max-sliced 2-Wasserstein distance.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
Method bounds tail probabilities of continuous RVs.
problem Bounding tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Setting continuous, positive, and strictly decreasing/increasing functions to derive upper and lower bounds.
result Provides tighter bounds than existing methods, including a novel asymptotic capacity bound for AWGN channel.
In this article, we study the convergence of Mirror Descent (MD) and Optimistic Mirror Descent (OMD) for saddle point problems satisfying the notion of coherence as proposed in Mertikopoulos et al. We prove convergence of OMD with exact gradients for coherent saddle point problems, and show that monotone convergence on…
Study minimax regret in sequential probability assignment with and without side information.
problem Minimax regret analysis in sequential probability assignment.
method Upper and lower bounds on minimax regret using square-root entropy.
result Lower bound matches upper bound for Donsker classes, up to log factors.
Top-H decoding improves text generation by balancing creativity and coherence.
problem Balancing creativity and coherence in text generation.
method Entropy-constrained minimum divergence problem, NP-hard ECMM problem, top-H decoding.
result Top-H decoding outperforms min-p sampling by up to 25.63% on creative writing benchmarks.
New approach for handling uncertain probabilities.
problem Handling imprecise or uncertain probabilities.
method Introducing interval probability measures and updating rules.
result Formal solution to the Keynes-Ramsey controversy.
New process explains asset volatility patterns.
problem Explains statistical relationship between asset volatility and returns.
method Uses multiplicative Langevin process with adjustable coherence time.
result Exactly equivalent to Inverse Gamma distribution for volatility.
Paper finds how many neurons are needed to approximate histogram distributions.
problem How many neurons are needed to approximate a target probability distribution?
method Examined for uniform input distribution and histogram target distributions, using efficient neural net construction.
result Obtained a new upper bound on the number of required neurons, strictly better than previous bounds.
Unified framework for risk evaluation under uncertainty.
problem Risk assessment under multiple economic scenarios.
method Axiomatic framework for generalized risk measures.
result Characterization of worst-case, coherent, and robust risk measures.
The study tightens bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums using KL-divergence.
problem Tightening bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums of i.i.d. Binomials.
method Applied Sanov's theorem to derive upper and lower bounds on binomial tail probabilities and minimums, expressed in terms of KL-divergence.
result High probability upper and lower bounds on the minimum of i.i.d. Binomial random variables, finite sample, asymptotically tight.
We study the problem of exact completion for m×n sized matrix of rank r with the adaptive sampling method. We introduce a relation of the exact completion problem with the sparsest vector of column and row spaces (which we call \textit{sparsity-number} here). Using this relation, we propose matrix completion…
Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.
problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.
This paper analyzes regret bounds for Gaussian process Thompson sampling.
problem Analyzing the performance of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) in Bayesian optimization.
method The paper derives several regret bounds for GP-TS, including a lower bound, upper bounds on the second moment of cumulative regret, expected lenient regret, and improved cumulative regret.
result The paper provides improved regret upper bounds for GP-TS, showing that it suffers from a polynomial dependence on 1/δ with probability δ. Quantum-classical correspondence links graph Laplacians to manifold dynamics.
problem Establishing a quantum-classical link for graph Laplacians on manifolds.
method Using semiclassical pseudodifferential operators and coherent states, the paper connects graph Laplacians to geodesic flows on manifolds.
result The geodesic flow on manifolds can be approximated by matrix dynamics on discrete samples.
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
problem Improving treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
method Statistical decision theory with maximum regret evaluation.
result Estimates illness probability for better treatment choice.
Defines coherent manifolds and their quantum applications.
problem Understanding quantum spaces and coherent states.
method Generalizes quantum field theory and Schrödinger equation solutions.
result Solves Schrödinger equation on coherent manifolds.
We give an exposition and numerical studies of upper hedging prices in multinomial models from the viewpoint of linear programming and the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. We also show that, as the number of rounds goes to infinity, the upper hedging price of a European option converges to the solution of…
Establishes upper bounds on generalization error in active learning.
problem Improving query algorithms in active learning.
method Derives upper bounds on generalization error using informativeness and representativeness query strategies.
result Validates the use of regularization techniques to ensure bounds' validity.
CoRe method improves time series forecasting coherency without strict constraints.
problem Noisy hierarchical time series data that doesn't perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints.
method Coherency Regularization using neural networks.
result Improved forecast accuracy and coherence, especially in noisy data scenarios.
Formulates mechanics for probability distributions on statistical manifold.
problem Formulating mechanics for probability distributions on statistical manifold.
method Information-geometric formulation of Classical Mechanics on statistical manifold, using dually-flat connection and Hilbert bundle structure.
result Provides coherent formalism for Lagrangian and Hamiltonian mechanics on statistical bundle.