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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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127255382509 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for coherent predictions

End-to-end deep model for coherent probabilistic forecasts in hierarchical time series.

problem Hierarchical probabilistic forecasting for coherent predictions.
method Dirichlet proportions model for learning root and child distributions.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines (up to 26%).

Predicts coherence from quantum heat engine noise using machine learning.

problem Predicting coherence in quantum heat engines from nonequilibrium fluctuations.
method Developed a machine learning protocol using K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) model.
result Machine learning successfully predicts coherence from quantum heat engine noise.

Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.

problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.

Supervised topic models are often sought to balance prediction quality and interpretability. However, when models are (inevitably) misspecified, standard approaches rarely deliver on both. We introduce a novel approach, the prediction-focused topic model, that uses the supervisory signal to retain only vocabulary terms…

2019-10-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Method guarantees coherent factuality for language model outputs in reasoning tasks.

problem Ensuring correctness of language model outputs in reasoning tasks.
method Developed a conformal-prediction-based method applied to subgraphs within a deducibility graph.
result Achieved coherent factuality across target coverage levels, 90% on stricter definition.

C-HMCNN(h) improves HMC classification by leveraging class hierarchy.

problem Hierarchical multi-label classification with class hierarchy constraints.
method Exploits class hierarchy to produce coherent predictions for multi-label classification.
result C-HMCNN(h) outperforms state-of-the-art models in HMC classification.

Improved prediction of hierarchical time series using structured regularization.

problem Making coherent forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Structured regularization method for bottom-level time series predictions.
result Superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to previous methods.

ConvNP improves SP prediction with translation equivariance and coherent samples.

problem Predicting stationary stochastic processes with coherent samples.
method Convolutional Neural Processes (ConvNP) with a new maximum-likelihood objective.
result ConvNP outperforms standard NPs and demonstrates strong generalization on various tasks.

Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be represented as discrete counts over a high dimensional set of possible procedures, diagnoses, and medications. Supervised topic models present an attractive option for incorporating EHR data as features into a prediction problem: given a patient's record, we estimate a set of …

2019-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Text documents are structured on multiple levels of detail: individual words are related by syntax, but larger units of text are related by discourse structure. Existing language models generally fail to account for discourse structure, but it is crucial if we are to have language models that reward coherence and gener…

2015-11-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.

problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.

A machine learning framework predicts self-induced stochastic resonance in neurons.

problem Predicting coherent oscillations in slow-fast excitable systems driven by noise.
method Physics-informed machine learning with a Noise-Augmented State Predictor architecture and Kramers' escape theory constraints.
result Trained PINN accurately predicts spike-train coherence on noise intensity, excitability, and timescale separation.

Recognizing facial expressions from static images or video sequences is a widely studied but still challenging problem. The recent progresses obtained by deep neural architectures, or by ensembles of heterogeneous models, have shown that integrating multiple input representations leads to state-of-the-art results. In p…

2018-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Theoretical work shows integrating coherent reasoning improves LLM performance and error correction.

problem Improving reasoning and error correction in large language models (LLMs) with few-shot prompting.
method Theoretical analysis and sensitivity experiments on transformer behavior with coherent reasoning and corrupted demonstrations.
result The transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions when coherent reasoning is integrated.

We present a new model DrNET that learns disentangled image representations from video. Our approach leverages the temporal coherence of video and a novel adversarial loss to learn a representation that factorizes each frame into a stationary part and a temporally varying component. The disentangled representation can …

2017-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

A new video prediction model treats videos as continuous processes, reducing sampling steps and improving efficiency.

problem Efficiency and temporal coherence in video prediction models.
method Treats videos as a continuous multi-dimensional process, reducing sampling steps.
result Reduction of 75% sampling steps, state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.

HierarchicalForecast provides a Python framework for coherent hierarchical forecasting.

problem Ensuring forecasts at disaggregate levels add up to aggregate forecasts.
method Preprocessed datasets, evaluation metrics, and statistical baseline models.
result Python-based reference framework for statistical and ML forecasting.

We analyze why some models resist unlearning using linear stability theory.

problem Understanding and predicting when machine learning models resist unlearning.
method Linear stability theory applied to machine learning models, focusing on data coherence and optimization dynamics.
result Data coherence and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) influence unlearning resistance; lower SNR makes unlearning easier.

Coherent Multiplex analyzes real-time wavelet coherence among multiple signals.

problem Identifying and visualizing coherence among multiple time series.
method Fast spectral similarity based on cosine similarity metrics of Fourier-transformed signals and sparse time-frequency wavelet coherence.
result Scalable real-time system for low-latency inference and monitoring of inter-signal relationships.

Generates coherent 3D scenes from monocular videos without supervision.

problem Lack of 3D scene modeling in video generation models.
method Trains a model to generate 3D scenes with moving objects and a background from monocular videos.
result Trained model generates coherent 3D scenes with multiple moving objects and a background.

The paper argues for prioritizing identifying structure over complex models for scientific discovery.

problem Underdetermination of mechanisms in high-dimensional data, leading to unreliable explanations.
method Proposes concrete standards for 'mechanistic ML' to avoid collapsing explanations.
result Large language models (LLMs) can collapse large equivalence classes of explanations, making it hard to distinguish between mechanisms.

The transition amplitudes between coherent states on a coherent state manifold are expressed in terms of the embedding of the coherent state manifold into a projective Hilbert space. Consequences for the dimension of projective Hilbert space and a simple geometric interpretation of Calabi's diastasis follows.

1997-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Model uses LLMs to process numerical data guided by natural language descriptions.

problem Challenges in integrating prior knowledge into probabilistic models.
method Developed LLM Processes to condition numerical predictive distributions on natural language.
result Improved predictive performance and structured qualitative descriptions.

Sparse coding in learned dictionaries has been established as a successful approach for signal denoising, source separation and solving inverse problems in general. A dictionary learning method adapts an initial dictionary to a particular signal class by iteratively computing an approximate factorization of a training …

2012-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (M…

2016-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops equivariant Chern characters for coherent sheaves with group actions.

problem Computing Chern characters for coherent sheaves on manifolds with group actions.
method Introduces equivariant Chern characters and proves Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem in Bott-Chern cohomology.
result Establishes a Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem for coherent sheaves with finite group actions.

New metric mm-coherence measures gradient alignment during training, revealing surprising memorization patterns.

problem Measuring and understanding the alignment of per-example gradients during training.
method Introducing mm-coherence as a metric to study gradient alignment, showing its advantages over existing metrics.
result Training with random labels leads to high mm-coherence, indicating common patterns even when generalization is not possible.

Diffusion models learn hierarchical composition rules from data.

problem How many samples do generative models need to learn hierarchical composition rules?
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of diffusion models on probabilistic context-free grammars.
result Diffusion models learn hierarchical composition rules with sample complexity scaling polynomially with context size.

Generates coherent storybooks from plain text using diffusion models.

problem Ensuring coherency in a sequence of images for storytelling applications.
method Combines pre-trained LLM and text-guided Latent Diffusion Model for zero-shot generation.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art image editing baselines in generating coherent storybooks.

Low-rank matrix approximations are often used to help scale standard machine learning algorithms to large-scale problems. Recently, matrix coherence has been used to characterize the ability to extract global information from a subset of matrix entries in the context of these low-rank approximations and other sampling-…

2010-09-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.

problem Estimating coherent risk measures in financial contexts.
method Non-standard analysis, hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, plug-in asymptotics.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral plug-in estimators.

We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which enables one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing. The main idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling these parts to different agents. The technique is closely connected with the convolution of coh…

2006-05-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The coherent states are viewed as a powerful tool in differential geometry. It is shown that some objects in differential geometry can be expressed using quantities which appear in the construction of the coherent states. The following subjects are discussed via the coherent states: the geodesics, the conjugate locus a…

1998-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

We emphasize some properties of coherent state groups, i.e. groups whose quotient with the stationary groups, are manifolds which admit a holomorphic embedding in a projective Hilbert space. We determine the differential action of the generators of the representation of coherent state groups on the symmetric Fock space…

2002-11-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Hybrid model integrates GATv2 and geostatistics for better spatial prediction and uncertainty.

problem Accurate spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification in epidemiology and risk analysis.
method Integrates Graph Attention Network (GATv2) with model-based geostatistics (MBG) to capture relational and spatial dependencies.
result Hybrid model improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standalone models.

For homogeneous simply connected Hodge manifolds it is proved that the set of coherent vectors orthogonal to a given one is the divisor responsible for the homogeneous holomorphic line bundle of the coherent vectors. In particular, for naturally reductive spaces, the divisor is the cut locus.

1998-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗