In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
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48 results for “coherent acceptability indices”
Acceptability maximizationq-fin.MF
The paper studies optimal investment using acceptability indices to maximize portfolio performance.
problem Optimal investment problem using coherent acceptability indices.
method Numerical algorithm approximating the original problem, dynamic coherent risk measures, set-valued Bellman's principle.
result Acceptability maximization problem reduces to a one-period problem under certain conditions.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
Study dynamic risk measures and performance indices using distortion functions.
problem Investigate time consistency of dynamic risk measures and performance indices generated by distortion functions.
method Analyze dynamic coherent risk measures (DCRMs) and dynamic weighted value at risk measures, proving their equivalence. Establish properties of families of DCRMs generated by distortion functions and define corresponding dynamic coherent acceptability indices (DCAIs). Examine time consistency of DCRMs and DCAIs.
result DCRM generated by distortion functions are sub-martingale time consistent but not super-martingale time consistent and not weakly acceptance time consistent.
Concave Distortion Semigroupsq-fin.RM
The problem behind this paper is the proper measurement of the degree of quality/acceptability/distance to arbitrage of trades. We are narrowing the class of coherent acceptability indices introduced by Cherny and Madan (2007) by imposing an additional mathematical property. For this, we introduce the notion of a conca…
New star-shaped acceptability indexes generalize existing methods.
problem Generalizing existing acceptability measures.
method Characterizing acceptability indexes through star-shaped risk measures and sets.
result Introducing concrete examples linked to various financial measures.
Dynamic Assessment Indicesmath.PR
This paper provides a unified framework, which allows, in particular, to study the structure of dynamic monetary risk measures and dynamic acceptability indices. The main mathematical tool, which we use here, and which allows us to significantly generalize existing results is the theory of -modules. In the first p…
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of performance evaluation methods.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
Indices of acceptability are well suited to frame the axiomatic features of many performance measures, associated to terminal random cash flows.We extend this notion to classes of càdlàg processes modelling cash flows over a fixed investment horizon.We provide a representation result for bounded paths. We suggest an ac…
We extend several results of Helfer, Wise, Louder and Wilton related to coherence in one-relator groups to the more general setting of one-relator products of locally indicable groups. The methods developed to do so also give rise to a new proof of a theorem of Brodsky.
The theory of acceptance sets and their associated risk measures plays a key role in the design of capital adequacy tests. The objective of this paper is to investigate, in the context of bounded financial positions, the class of surplus-invariant acceptance sets. These are characterized by the fact that acceptability …
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of functionals for evaluating financial positions.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
We provide a dual characterisation of the weak-closure of a finite sum of cones in adapted to a discrete time filtration : the cone in the sum contains bounded random variables that are -measurable. Hence we obtain a generalisation of Delbaen's m-stability condition…
We define Conditional quasi concave Performance Measures (CPMs), on random variables bounded from below, to accommodate for additional information. Our notion encompasses a wide variety of cases, from conditional expected utility and certainty equivalent to conditional acceptability indexes. We provide the characteriza…
This paper connects monetary and star-shaped risk measures by showing their equivalence under certain conditions.
problem Understanding the relationship between monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
method Analyzing the acceptability of 0 and the normalization property.
result Monetary risk measures are only a translation away from star-shapedness under mild conditions.
Several authors have recently developed risk-sensitive policy gradient methods that augment the standard expected cost minimization problem with a measure of variability in cost. These studies have focused on specific risk-measures, such as the variance or conditional value at risk (CVaR). In this work, we extend the p…
Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES is less straightforward…
New financial model revises risk measure under NA condition.
problem Revising classical financial mathematics with coherent risk measure on .
method Developed a new version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing and provided dual representations.
result Set of risk-hedging prices is closed under NA condition.
Comparative Analysis of Technological Fitness and Coherence at different geographical scalesphysics.soc-ph
The paper analyzes tech specialization and diversification at various scales.
problem Trade-offs between specialization and diversification in economic development.
method Patent data and Economic Complexity framework.
result Technological Coherence positively impacts growth at metropolitan areas but negatively at larger scales.
New metric -coherence measures gradient alignment during training, revealing surprising memorization patterns.
problem Measuring and understanding the alignment of per-example gradients during training.
method Introducing -coherence as a metric to study gradient alignment, showing its advantages over existing metrics.
result Training with random labels leads to high -coherence, indicating common patterns even when generalization is not possible.
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
A Theoretical Understanding of Chain-of-Thought: Coherent Reasoning and Error-Aware Demonstrationcs.CL
Theoretical work shows integrating coherent reasoning improves LLM performance and error correction.
problem Improving reasoning and error correction in large language models (LLMs) with few-shot prompting.
method Theoretical analysis and sensitivity experiments on transformer behavior with coherent reasoning and corrupted demonstrations.
result The transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions when coherent reasoning is integrated.
Objective: Predict patient-specific vitals deemed medically acceptable for discharge from a pediatric intensive care unit (ICU). Design: The means of each patient's hr, sbp and dbp measurements between their medical and physical discharge from the ICU were computed as a proxy for their physiologically acceptable state …
New framework tackles deep financial reporting bottleneck by improving hallucination and coherence.
problem Statistical smoothing trap in LLMs limits deep financial reporting quality.
method DeepNews Framework integrates information foraging, schema-guided planning, and adversarial prompting.
result DeepNews system achieves 25% acceptance rate in blind test, significantly outperforming SOTA.
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values …
HierarchicalForecast provides a Python framework for coherent hierarchical forecasting.
problem Ensuring forecasts at disaggregate levels add up to aggregate forecasts.
method Preprocessed datasets, evaluation metrics, and statistical baseline models.
result Python-based reference framework for statistical and ML forecasting.
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
The minimization of some multivariate risk indicators may be used as an allocation method, as proposed in Cénac et al. [6]. The aim of capital allocation is to choose a point in a simplex, according to a given criterion. In a previous paper [17] we proved that the proposed allocation technique satisfies a set of cohere…
Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches have demonstrated advanced performance in image captioning by directly optimizing the metric used for testing. However, this shaped reward introduces learning biases, which reduces the readability of generated text. In addition, the large sample space makes training unst…
We present an arbitrage free theoretical framework for modeling bid and ask prices of dividend paying securities in a discrete time setup using theory of dynamic acceptability indices. In the first part of the paper we develop the theory of dynamic subscale invariant performance measures, on a general probability space…
On Gauss-Bonnet type formulas for mappings between surfaces with boundary and their applicationsmath.DG
The paper derives Gauss-Bonnet formulas for mappings between surfaces with boundary.
problem Calculating topological invariants for mappings between surfaces with boundaries.
method Defining singular points, constructing coherent tangent bundles, and applying Gauss-Bonnet formulas.
result Derives two Gauss-Bonnet type formulas for mappings between surfaces with boundaries.
Introduces new performance measures using scaled utility functions.
problem Performance measurement in financial contexts.
method Certainty equivalents defined via scaled utility functions, well-posed portfolio optimization problem under generic conditions.
result Link between portfolio dynamics, benchmark process, and utility function choice in the long-run setting.
A new diversification measure DQ derived from risk measures addresses limitations of existing indices.
problem Limitations of existing diversification indices in capturing tail heaviness and common shocks.
method DQs are defined based on a parametric family of risk measures, satisfying six axioms of diversification.
result DQs can properly capture tail heaviness and common shocks, improving portfolio selection.
Since risky positions in multivariate portfolios can be offset by various choices of capital requirements that depend on the exchange rules and related transaction costs, it is natural to assume that the risk measures of random vectors are set-valued. Furthermore, it is reasonable to include the exchange rules in the a…
We analyze the trade-off between model complexity and accuracy for random forests by breaking the trees up into individual classification rules and selecting a subset of them. We show experimentally that already a few rules are sufficient to achieve an acceptable accuracy close to that of the original model. Moreover, …
Quantum algorithms for CVaR portfolio optimization face trade-offs between hardware coherence and expressibility.
problem Quantum algorithmic resilience for CVaR portfolio optimization
method WS-QAOA vs. HE-VQNN
result WS-QAOA provides exact theoretical mapping but suffers from hardware decoherence, while HE-VQNN preserves hardware coherence but lacks expressibility.
This paper simplifies conditional Sobol' indices calculation using PCE bases.
problem Computational inefficiency and lack of consistency in evaluating conditional Sobol' indices.
method Analytical extraction of conditional Sobol' indices via basis decomposition of PCE expansions.
result Derives closed-form expressions for conditional Sobol' indices.
Decomposing the stock market intraday dynamicscond-mat.soft
The correlation matrix formalism is used to study temporal aspects of the stock market evolution. This formalism allows to decompose the financial dynamics into noise as well as into some coherent repeatable intraday structures. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) data over the t…
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
problem Selecting the best method for reconciling base forecasts in hierarchical time series.
method Conditional hierarchical forecasting using machine learning and time series features.
result Conditional hierarchical forecasting leads to significantly more accurate forecasts, especially at lower levels.
We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected Shortfall (ES) and Shortfall Deviation (SD), which we also introduce, contemplating t…
Studies acceptable bundles on a partially punctured polydisk.
problem Understanding acceptable bundles in Simpson--Mochizuki theory.
method Expository study with new arguments.
result New arguments differ from Mochizuki's.
Study on acceptable bundles on a punctured disk.
problem Understanding acceptable bundles in Simpson--Mochizuki theory.
method Detailed study and introduction of a new invariant.
result Arguments differ from Simpson and Mochizuki's.
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
problem Misleading residual-norm diagnostics in inverse PDE problems.
method Structure-sensitive sequential diagnostic using e-processes.
result Rejects fitted models that produce biased predictions.
Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
problem Conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
method Conditions on acceptance sets for induced comonotonic additive risk measures.
result Acceptance sets induce comonotonic additive risk measures if and only if the acceptance sets and their complements are stable under convex combinations of comonotonic random variables.
In order to evaluate the quality of the scientific research, we introduce a new family of scientific performance measures, called Scientific Research Measures (SRM). Our proposal originates from the more recent developments in the theory of risk measures and is an attempt to resolve the many problems of the existing bi…
The paper develops a theory for speculative decoding acceptance criteria.
problem Speculative decoding's acceptance criteria and their rejection regions.
method Characterization of rejection regions as lower level sets of the target distribution, derivation of exact and margin-based certificates.
result Relaxed and tree-based acceptance criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance.
Paper bridges generative models and explainability.
problem Lack of connection between generative models and explainability.
method Proposes a probabilistic framework for example-based explanations.
result Formally defines example-based explanations for deep generative models.
Improved credit scoring model with explainability.
problem Making financial decisions based on loan applications.
method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with 360-degree explanation framework.
result Model achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides understandable explanations.