We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results achieved by other investigators.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “coherency scores”
Constructs new elicitable risk measures with multiplicative scoring functions.
problem Defining new elicitable risk measures with specific properties.
method Constructs new elicitable risk measures using a multiplicative scoring function.
result Encompasses and allows construction of novel elicitable risk measures.
Establishes a link between risk measures and uniform integrability in finance.
problem Understanding uniform integrability in the context of financial risk measures.
method Introduces the folding score of distortion risk measures to study uniform integrability directly with gains and losses.
result Obtains three sets of equivalent conditions for uniform integrability involving coherent risk measures.
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
We illustrate relationships between classical kernel-based dimensionality reduction techniques and eigendecompositions of empirical estimates of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) operators associated with dynamical systems. In particular, we show that kernel canonical correlation analysis (CCA) can be interpreted…
Low-rank matrix completion is an important problem with extensive real-world applications. When observations are uniformly sampled from the underlying matrix entries, existing methods all require the matrix to be incoherent. This paper provides the first working method for coherent matrix completion under the standard …
New optimal transport divergences derived from scoring functions.
problem Developing new divergences for optimal transport.
method Using scoring functions as cost functions in optimal transport.
result Comonotonic coupling is optimal for many new divergences.
How PC-based Methods Err: Towards Better Reporting of Assumption Violations and Small Sample Errorsstat.ML
The study analyzes and mitigates errors in PC-based causal discovery methods.
problem Errors in PC-based causal discovery methods can lead to incorrect graphs.
method The study introduces coherency scores to detect assumption violations and small sample errors in PC-based methods.
result The coherency scores can detect errors that other methods cannot, bridging between global and local error detection.
A new framework assesses financial and ESG risks for sustainable investing.
problem Measuring risk and reward in sustainable investing considering environmental, social, and governance factors.
method Proposes axiomatic definitions for ESG-coherent risk measures and reward-risk ratios based on bivariate random variables.
result Empirical analysis ranks stocks using the proposed measures.
Quantum Inception Scorequant-ph
Proposes qIS for quantum generative models, extending classical inception score.
problem Develop a metric to evaluate quantum generative models.
method Introduces qIS, relating quality to Holevo information of quantum channel.
result qIS enhances the quality of quantum generative models, showing physical limitations.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
We formulate coherence modeling as a regression task and propose two novel methods to combine techniques from our setup with pairwise approaches. The first of our methods is a model that we call "first-next," which operates similarly to selection sorting but conditions decision-making on information about already-sorte…
From STLS to Projection-based Dictionary Selection in Sparse Regression for System Identificationstat.ML
This work improves SINDy-type algorithms for system identification using score-guided dictionary selection.
problem Improving accuracy and interpretability in dynamical system identification.
method Score-guided library selection to refine dictionary terms in sparse regression.
result Score-guided methods enhance SINDy's robustness in discovering governing equations.
Interpretability has become an important topic of research as more machine learning (ML) models are deployed and widely used to make important decisions. Most of the current explanation methods provide explanations through feature importance scores, which identify features that are important for each individual input. …
Theory explains creativity in diffusion models generating novel images.
problem Diffusion models generate highly original images far from training data.
method Identified locality and equivariance as inductive biases to prevent optimal score-matching.
result Analytic models predict diffusion model outputs with high accuracy.
Improved credit scoring model with explainability.
problem Making financial decisions based on loan applications.
method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with 360-degree explanation framework.
result Model achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides understandable explanations.
Coherent manifoldsmath-ph
Defines coherent manifolds and their quantum applications.
problem Understanding quantum spaces and coherent states.
method Generalizes quantum field theory and Schrödinger equation solutions.
result Solves Schrödinger equation on coherent manifolds.
New method evaluates AI stock prediction systems based on decision-making processes.
problem Lack of evaluation for AI systems' decision-making processes.
method Scores intermediate decision process using large language models and closed-loop reinforcement learning feedback.
result Composite behavioral score correlates with Sharpe ratio and reduces prediction error.
CoRe method improves time series forecasting coherency without strict constraints.
problem Noisy hierarchical time series data that doesn't perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints.
method Coherency Regularization using neural networks.
result Improved forecast accuracy and coherence, especially in noisy data scenarios.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
Coherent Multiplex analyzes real-time wavelet coherence among multiple signals.
problem Identifying and visualizing coherence among multiple time series.
method Fast spectral similarity based on cosine similarity metrics of Fourier-transformed signals and sparse time-frequency wavelet coherence.
result Scalable real-time system for low-latency inference and monitoring of inter-signal relationships.
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
We describe a unified and coherent syntactic framework for supporting a semantically-informed syntactic approach to statistical machine translation. Semantically enriched syntactic tags assigned to the target-language training texts improved translation quality. The resulting system significantly outperformed a linguis…
The transition amplitudes between coherent states on a coherent state manifold are expressed in terms of the embedding of the coherent state manifold into a projective Hilbert space. Consequences for the dimension of projective Hilbert space and a simple geometric interpretation of Calabi's diastasis follows.
Are We Winning the Wrong Game? Revisiting Evaluation Practices for Long-Term Time Series Forecastingcs.LG
This paper challenges the current metrics used for evaluating long-term forecasting models.
problem Current metrics focus on pointwise error reduction, ignoring structural properties.
method Proposes a multi-dimensional evaluation approach that includes statistical fidelity, structural coherence, and decision-level relevance.
result Current progress in forecasting may reflect specialization in benchmark configurations rather than deeper understanding of temporal dynamics.
Many challenges in natural language processing require generating text, including language translation, dialogue generation, and speech recognition. For all of these problems, text generation becomes more difficult as the text becomes longer. Current language models often struggle to keep track of coherence for long pi…
We use mathematical induction to prove that the horizontal composition in the class of coherently diagonal complexes is indeed a binary operation. That is to say, the embedding of two coherently diagonal complexes in an alternating planar diagram produces a coherently diagonal complex.
This research creates efficient models for cyclo-stationary systems using generative methods.
problem Efficiently modeling systems with periodic forcing.
method Score-based generative modeling for reduced-order models.
result Accurately reproduces statistical properties and temporal correlations of cyclo-stationary time series.
Paper constructs Chern character for coherent sheaves.
problem Chern character for coherent sheaves with values in Bott-Chern cohomology.
method Based on Block's fundamental construction, constructs Chern character.
result Proves Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck formula for coherent sheaves.
The paper constructs minimal coherent filling pairs on surfaces.
problem Finding minimal intersecting coherent filling pairs on surfaces.
method Geometric procedure starting from a torus filling pair.
result Construction of minimal intersecting coherent filling pairs on for .
Sparse coding in learned dictionaries has been established as a successful approach for signal denoising, source separation and solving inverse problems in general. A dictionary learning method adapts an initial dictionary to a particular signal class by iteratively computing an approximate factorization of a training …
Paper defines dynamical coherence for flows and proves it under specific conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of partially hyperbolic flows.
method Introduces dynamical coherence and proves it for flows with a specific foliation.
result Dynamical coherence proved for flows with a particular foliation.
Develops equivariant Chern characters for coherent sheaves with group actions.
problem Computing Chern characters for coherent sheaves on manifolds with group actions.
method Introduces equivariant Chern characters and proves Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem in Bott-Chern cohomology.
result Establishes a Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem for coherent sheaves with finite group actions.
New metric -coherence measures gradient alignment during training, revealing surprising memorization patterns.
problem Measuring and understanding the alignment of per-example gradients during training.
method Introducing -coherence as a metric to study gradient alignment, showing its advantages over existing metrics.
result Training with random labels leads to high -coherence, indicating common patterns even when generalization is not possible.
Identification of individual coherent sets associated with flow trajectories using Coherent Structure Coloringphysics.flu-dyn
We present a method for identifying the coherent structures associated with individual Lagrangian flow trajectories even where only sparse particle trajectory data is available. The method, based on techniques in spectral graph theory, uses the Coherent Structure Coloring vector and associated eigenvectors to analyze t…
We study a space of coherent risk measures M_phi obtained as certain expansions of coherent elementary basis measures. In this space, the concept of ``Risk Aversion Function'' phi naturally arises as the spectral representation of each risk measure in a space of functions of confidence level probabilities. We give nece…
Extends coherence results to one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
problem Coherence in one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
method Developed new methods to extend results of Helfer, Wise, Louder, Wilton, and Brodsky.
result New proof of a theorem by Brodsky.
Generates coherent storybooks from plain text using diffusion models.
problem Ensuring coherency in a sequence of images for storytelling applications.
method Combines pre-trained LLM and text-guided Latent Diffusion Model for zero-shot generation.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art image editing baselines in generating coherent storybooks.
Meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of SMEs, aligning financial statement dates with evaluation dates.
problem Temporal misalignment of credit scoring models leading to bias and inconsistent predictions.
method Two-step temporal decomposition: static model for annual PDs, dynamic model for monthly PDs; stacking architecture to aggregate multiple models.
result Framework effectively captures credit risk evolution over time, improving temporal consistency and predictive stability.
Low-rank matrix approximations are often used to help scale standard machine learning algorithms to large-scale problems. Recently, matrix coherence has been used to characterize the ability to extract global information from a subset of matrix entries in the context of these low-rank approximations and other sampling-…
A realization of coherent state Lie algebras by first-order differential operators with holomorphic polynomial coefficients on Kähler coherent state orbits is presented. Explicit formulas involving the Bernoulli numbers and the structure constants for the semisimple Lie groups are proved.
Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.
problem Estimating coherent risk measures in financial contexts.
method Non-standard analysis, hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, plug-in asymptotics.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral plug-in estimators.
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which enables one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing. The main idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling these parts to different agents. The technique is closely connected with the convolution of coh…
Coherent states and geometrymath.DG
The coherent states are viewed as a powerful tool in differential geometry. It is shown that some objects in differential geometry can be expressed using quantities which appear in the construction of the coherent states. The following subjects are discussed via the coherent states: the geodesics, the conjugate locus a…
Paper improves video categorization using temporal coherence.
problem Video categorization in multiple modalities.
method Temporal coherence-based regularization for multimodal models.
result Models with temporal coherence outperform state-of-the-art.
CNNs improve InSAR coherence classification.
problem Improving demarcation of InSAR imagery regions based on coherence.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for preprocessing and classification.
result CNNs reduce misclassifications in incoherent regions and outperform established methods.
We emphasize some properties of coherent state groups, i.e. groups whose quotient with the stationary groups, are manifolds which admit a holomorphic embedding in a projective Hilbert space. We determine the differential action of the generators of the representation of coherent state groups on the symmetric Fock space…