Future projection of climate is typically obtained by combining outputs from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) for several climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. While IPCC has traditionally used a simple model output average, recent work has illustrated potential advantages of using a multitask lea…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “climate variability”
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
ESN model helps understand climate event impacts.
problem Understanding complex climate event impacts.
method Feature importance methods for ESNs on spatio-temporal climate data.
result Characterized relationships between Mount Pinatubo eruption variables.
Deep learning improves stochastic downscaling of climate variables.
problem Accurately capturing climatic variability at local scales.
method Proposed improvements to GANs for stochastic downscaling of climate variables.
result Improved stochastic calibration of GANs for high-resolution climate predictions.
Generative model improves wind field downscaling from coarse climate models.
problem Limited spatial resolution and biases in GCMs for wind energy studies.
method SerpentFlow for domain alignment and conditional fine-scale learning.
result Improved spatial coherence, inter-variable consistency, robustness under climate change.
New method uses spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to validate climate models.
problem Ensuring the accuracy of global climate models.
method Spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to measure model differences.
result Phase 6 models show modest improvements in realistic climatologies.
Tuning into Climate Risks: Extracting Innovation from Television News for Clean Energy Firmsq-fin.ST
Study uses TV news to measure climate risks affecting clean energy firms.
problem Understanding how climate risks impact clean energy firms' financial stability.
method Developed climate risk measures from TV news coverage and analyzed their effects on clean energy firms' risks.
result Increased TV news coverage of climate risks correlates with higher systematic risk and lower idiosyncratic risk for clean energy firms.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
problem Predicting CAT bond coupons using climate data.
method Combining climate indicators with machine learning models (random forest, gradient boosting, etc.).
result Extremely randomized trees achieved the lowest RMSE in predicting CAT bond coupons.
Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.
problem Detect and attribute climate change impacts from observations robustly.
method Supervised learning with anchor regression for robust predictions under interventions.
result CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature patterns under strong solar forcing interventions.
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
problem Predict climate variables at distant locations where comprehensive data collection is not feasible.
method Uses reservoir computing and vector autoregression models for prediction.
result Machine learning improves prediction accuracy for highly correlated data.
Analyzing and utilizing spatiotemporal big data are essential for studies concerning climate change. However, such data are not fully integrated into climate models owing to limitations in statistical frameworks. Herein, we employ VARENN (visually augmented representation of environment for neural networks) to efficien…
This study explores wind energy resources in different locations through the Gulf of Oman and also their future variability due climate change impacts. In this regard, EC-EARTH near surface wind outputs obtained from CORDEX-MENA simulations are used for historical and future projection of the energy. The ERA5 wind data…
Modeling Climate Change Impact on Wind Power Resources Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systemphysics.ao-ph
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable devel…
The Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in CMIP5 Decadal Climate Predictionsphysics.ao-ph
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions …
Machine learning improves sub-seasonal climate forecasting, especially gradient boosting and deep learning.
problem Predicting climate variables like temperature and precipitation in 2-week to 2-month time scales.
method Carefully constructed feature representations and ML approaches including gradient boosting and deep learning.
result ML methods can outperform climatological baselines and improve prediction accuracy.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
Deep learning predicts crop yield integrating genotype and weather data.
problem Improving crop yield prediction for diverse climates.
method Long Short Term Memory - Recurrent Neural Network model with temporal attention mechanism.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional methods for yield prediction.
NN-GPR improves climate model predictions by preserving fine-scale spatial information.
problem Dilution of fine-scale spatial information and bias in model averaging.
method Gaussian process regression with an infinitely wide deep neural network.
result NN-GPR produces more accurate and detailed climate projections.
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the abilit…
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Paper compares modern regression methods for time series data.
problem Regression analysis of time series data with time-indexed predictors.
method Classical statistical and recent machine learning approaches compared.
result Advantages and disadvantages of current methods identified.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Identifying the atmospheric drivers of drought and heat using a smoothed deep learning approachcs.LG
New model identifies anticyclonic patterns causing drought and heat.
problem Identifying atmospheric drivers of drought and heat.
method Smoothed convolutional neural network classifier for anticyclonic circulations.
result Helps identify important drivers of hot and dry extremes in climate simulations.
ClimAlign uses deep learning for unsupervised climate downscaling.
problem Downscaling climate variables from coarse to fine scales.
method Unsupervised statistical downscaling using normalizing flows.
result ClimAlign achieves comparable predictive performance to supervised methods.
Combines GANs and EVT for better modeling of spatial climate extremes.
problem Modeling dependencies between climate extremes, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) combined with Extreme Value Theory (EVT).
result evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and statistical approaches in modeling spatial extremes.
Study integrates climate and text data to improve credit default prediction.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for mSEs with limited financial histories.
method Multimodal framework using LSTM, GRU, and transformer models.
result Integration of multiple data modalities improves credit default prediction.
New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.
problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.
Modeling bank portfolio risk under climate transition impacts.
problem Evaluating risk measures for a bank's collateralized loans in a climate transition economy.
method Developed an end-to-end modeling framework using stochastic processes and dynamic macroeconomic variables.
result Derived expressions for risk measures as functions of climate transition parameters.
Integrated analysis of the urban water-electricity demand nexus in the Midwestern United Statescs.LG
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even more important as cities continue to grow, causing water and electricity utiliti…
Study uses CNNs to upscale wind speed data from 100 km to 3 km, improving subgrid-scale variability.
problem Recovering fine-scale wind speed information from coarse data.
method Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with different input configurations (coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, diurnal cycle) were tested.
result CNN models with coarse wind and fine topography inputs perform best in generalizing to unseen regions.
Study assesses sugar beet yields under EU's neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
problem Impact of yellow virus on sugar beet yields under neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
method Modeling using climate datasets and simulations of aphid flight and abundance.
result Reconstructs sugar beet yields using 'as if' approach without neonicotinoids.
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling co-occurrence of extreme weather events under changing climate conditions.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder (cXVAE) with CNN integration.
result Accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers extremal dependence with low computational cost.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
Unified framework detects shifts in climate boundaries using GP regression and MAD test.
problem Challenges in quantifying and testing for temporal shifts in spatial boundaries from noisy data.
method Combines heteroskedastic GP regression with scaled MAD GET.
result No significant decade-scale changes in arid and semi-arid interfaces, but localized shifts during extreme droughts identified.
Studying the impact of climate change on precipitation is constrained by finding a way to evaluate the evolution of precipitation variability over time. Classical approaches (feature-based) have shown their limitations for this issue due to the intermittent and irregular nature of precipitation. In this study, we prese…
In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the estimations a ten cross fold validation is adopted both for obtaining clusters and buildin…
Polluting fine dusts in South Korea which are mainly consisted of biomass burning and fugitive dust blown from dust belt is significant problem these days. Predicting concentrations of fine dust particles in Seoul is challenging because they are product of complicate chemical reactions among gaseous pollutants and also…
Study improves paddy rice yield predictions in Peru using sparse regression and climatic variables.
problem Improving precision of paddy rice yield forecasts in Peru.
method Sparse regression, Elastic-Net regularization, climatic variables, dynamic transformations.
result Improved predictive performance of paddy rice yield forecasts.
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
problem Identifying latent variables in sequential data models.
method Proved identifiability of Markov Switching Models and established conditions for Switching Dynamical Systems.
result Identifiability of latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations.
Novel algorithm detects causal macrovariables from high-dimensional data.
problem Leveraging high-dimensional observational datasets for coarse-grained causal models.
method Inspired by information bottlenecks, novel algorithm detects macrovariables and investigates causal relationships through additive noise models.
result Algorithm robustly detects and infers causal relationships in both synthetic and real climate datasets.
The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational lim…
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
problem Assessing risks of late-frost and drought in Bavaria due to climate change.
method Used vine copula models for non-Gaussian and asymmetric dependencies, with univariate and bivariate regression analyses.
result Identified 'at-risk' regions for forest adaptation.
Bayesian framework quantifies uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment.
problem Uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment models.
method X-Degree Compatibility (XDC) approach with FaIR climate model, adaptive MCMC, deep learning emulator.
result Robust parametric uncertainty quantification for FaIR model.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Model predicts one-year NDVI for Four Corners region.
problem Long-term forecasting of vegetation conditions using climate attributes.
method Two-phase machine learning model using historical climate data.
result Open-source tools outperform alternative methods for NDVI forecasts.
Models assess how USDA orange production forecasts impact FCOJ market decisions.
problem High volatility in FCOJ futures due to limited U.S. orange production.
method Developed models to assess the impact of USDA October orange production forecasts on FCOJ market participants.
result Probabilistic forecasts of USDA production forecast error can reduce FCOJ price volatility.