Optimal dividends for insurers with climate tipping point consideration.
problem Natural catastrophe claims and climate tipping point impact insurance profits.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problems with Erlang distribution for tipping point timing, numerical approximation.
result Non-stationary climate tipping point can benefit shareholders by optimizing dividends.
To achieve the ambitious aims of the Paris climate agreement, the majority of fossil-fuel reserves needs to remain underground. As current national government commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient by far, actors such as institutional and private investors and the social movement on divestmen…
Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt shifts in complex dynamical systems.
method Equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) trained on candidate equilibrium states.
result EINNs can identify critical thresholds in nonlinear systems.
Much research has been conducted arguing that tipping points at which complex systems experience phase transitions are difficult to identify. To test the existence of tipping points in financial markets, based on the alternating offer strategic model we propose a network of bargaining agents who mutually either coopera…
Framework detects tipping points in complex systems using ML.
problem Detecting tipping points in complex, emergent systems.
method Combining manifold learning, neural networks, and Gaussian processes.
result Reduced-order models for mesoscopic and mean-field dynamics.
Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.
problem Estimating the financial impact of nature deterioration on companies.
method Developed metrics (Country Degradation Index, Nature Risk Score) and assessed five environmental hazards.
result Global equities lose 26.8% in a nature decline scenario, with worst firms losing 75%.
CNMs detect tipping points in complex systems using causal network markers.
problem Identifying tipping points ahead of critical transitions in complex systems.
method Introducing CNMs that incorporate causality indicators to detect tipping points.
result CNMs show higher predictive power and accuracy than traditional DNB indicators.
A new method identifies critical transitions in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in identifying critical transitions in high-dimensional time-series data.
method Spatial-temporal Principal Component Analysis (stPCA)
result Identifies tipping points before critical transitions reliably.
Model shows wealth taxes can cause sudden emigration waves, impacting GDP.
problem Estimating the economic impact of wealth taxes on emigration.
method Developed a social contagion model with tipping-point dynamics, embedded in Fokker-Planck framework.
result Micro-to-macro extrapolation requires five conditions to hold, violating each.
The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindn…
We study the phenomenon of Type-II curvature blow-up in mean curvature flows of rotationally symmetric noncompact embedded hypersurfaces. Using analytic techniques based on formal matched asymptotics and the construction of upper and lower barrier solutions enveloping formal solutions with prescribed behavior, we show …
We continue the study, initiated by the first two authors in \cite{IW19}, of Type-II curvature blow-up in mean curvature flow of complete noncompact embedded hypersurfaces. In particular, we construct mean curvature flow solutions, in the rotationally symmetric class, with the following precise asymptotics near the "va…
In this paper, we study the precise asymptotics of noncompact Type-IIb solutions to the mean curvature flow. Precisely, for each real number γ>0, we construct mean curvature flow solutions, in the rotationally symmetric class, with the following precise asymptotics as t↗∞: (1) The highest curvature conc…
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
problem Predict climate variables at distant locations where comprehensive data collection is not feasible.
method Uses reservoir computing and vector autoregression models for prediction.
result Machine learning improves prediction accuracy for highly correlated data.
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models we are interest…
Facial Key Points (FKPs) Detection is an important and challenging problem in the fields of computer vision and machine learning. It involves predicting the co-ordinates of the FKPs, e.g. nose tip, center of eyes, etc, for a given face. In this paper, we propose a LeNet adapted Deep CNN model - NaimishNet, to operate o…
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt transitions in complex systems.
method Directed anisotropic diffusion map and latent stochastic dynamical systems.
result Early warning indicators can detect tipping points in state transitions.
Minimal TIP and TIF found in compact spacetimes, impacting spacetime splitting.
problem Understanding the global structure of spacetimes with compact Cauchy surfaces.
method Analysis of Terminal Indecomposable Past (TIP) and Future (TIF) sets in spacetimes with compact Cauchy surfaces.
result In a spacetime with compact Cauchy surfaces, there is always at least one minimal TIP and one minimal TIF.
TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.
problem Real-time market prediction requires accurate predictions before a deadline.
method Filters feasible models, dispatches workers, trades accuracy for deadline risk.
result Optimized pool achieves 0.991 timely accuracy and 0.994 raw accuracy.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Framework for analyzing dynamic topological changes in point clouds using persistent homology and dynamic optimal transport.
problem Analyzing transient structural reorganizations during dynamic phase transitions in time-evolutionary point clouds.
method Hierarchical dynamic evaluation framework driven by topological and hypergraph reconstruction strategy.
result Combining transport-based alignment with multi-scale entropy diagnostics for dynamic topological analysis.
TIP model improves POSE prediction with less resources.
problem Predicting polypharmacy side effects from drug-protein interactions.
method TIP model operates on three subgraphs for progressive representation learning.
result Improves accuracy by 7%+, time efficiency by 83imes, and space efficiency by 3imes. This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Gradient estimate for linearized translator equation in R^4.
problem Analyzing singularity models of mean curvature flow in R^4.
method Proving a gradient estimate for the variation field W in the tip region.
result Sharp bound for the derivative of the variation field W in the tip region.
Numerical simulations show stability of Type-II singularities in noncompact hypersurfaces.
problem Stability of Type-II singularities in noncompact hypersurfaces with rotationally-symmetric perturbations.
method Adaptation of the overlap method to include angular dependence.
result MCF of noncompact hypersurfaces with angular dependence behaves similarly to rotationally-symmetric perturbations, developing Type-II or Type-I singularities.
A framework uses deep learning for spatio-temporal data prediction.
problem Interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields on irregular points.
method Decomposes spatio-temporal processes into products of basis functions and spatial coefficients.
result Effectiveness in reconstructing coherent spatio-temporal fields.
Let (M,g) be a surface with Riemannian metric and curved conic singularities. More precisely, a neighbourhood of a singularity is isometric to (0,1)×S1 with metric gconic=dr2+f(r)2dθ2,r∈(0,1). We study the spectral geometry of (M,g) using the heat trace expansion. We express the first few…
Hybrid framework predicts Arctic permafrost decline, risks infrastructure, and provides tools.
problem Tackles permafrost decline and infrastructure risk assessment in Arctic territories.
method Hybrid physics-machine learning framework integrating 2.9 million observations.
result Projects mean permafrost fraction decline of -20.3 pp under RCP8.5 forcing, with high-risk zones identified.
In this short article, we prove the existence of ancient solutions of the mean curvature flow that for t -> 0 collapse to a round point, but for t -> -infinity become more and more oval: near the center they have asymptotic shrinkers modeled on round cylinders S^j x R^n-j and near the tips they have asymptotic translat…
Proposes a new stochastic method to calibrate climate risks in financial models.
problem Estimating climate-related financial risks in bank loan portfolios.
method Stochastic forward-looking methodology to calibrate climate macro-correlation evolution from scientific data.
result A new framework to evaluate climate risks without specific scenario assumptions.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
problem Uncertainty in future climate scenarios makes proactive adaptation less feasible.
method Underwrite climate adaptation projects with repayment based on future climate scenarios.
result Optimal financing reduces over- and under-preparation risks.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
problem Understanding multistability and transitions in climate models.
method Combination of quasipotential theory and manifold learning.
result Discovery of a third stable climate state not previously known.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
New framework bridges climate science and ML for easier climate model emulation.
problem High computational costs and mistrust of ML methods in climate models.
method Integrating climate science and machine learning perspectives to design easy-to-adopt emulators.
result Demonstrated reliability of emulators designed to address specific tasks.
ESN model helps understand climate event impacts.
problem Understanding complex climate event impacts.
method Feature importance methods for ESNs on spatio-temporal climate data.
result Characterized relationships between Mount Pinatubo eruption variables.
The study examines how climate risk influences sovereign debt default decisions.
problem The relationship between climate risk and sovereign debt default decisions.
method Calibration of a model to analyze the credit spreads of sovereign bonds and the impact of climate vulnerability on bond spreads.
result Climate risk does not significantly influence the decision to default on sovereign debt.
Geometrically interpolates rigid body motions with initial and terminal twists.
problem Finding spatial trajectories between prescribed initial and terminal poses.
method Derives solutions for k-IV-TIP and k-BV-TIP for k=1,...,4.
result Automatic cubic interpolation identical to minimum acceleration curve when twists are zero.
Future projection of climate is typically obtained by combining outputs from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) for several climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. While IPCC has traditionally used a simple model output average, recent work has illustrated potential advantages of using a multitask lea…
Study uses TV news to measure climate risks affecting clean energy firms.
problem Understanding how climate risks impact clean energy firms' financial stability.
method Developed climate risk measures from TV news coverage and analyzed their effects on clean energy firms' risks.
result Increased TV news coverage of climate risks correlates with higher systematic risk and lower idiosyncratic risk for clean energy firms.
CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
problem Climate change impacts on financial valuation are currently ignored.
method Flexible parameterization to capture climate impacts on hazard rates.
result Significant impacts on interest rate swaps even with slow climate change.
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
problem Estimating climate risks in bank credit portfolios.
method Adapts credit risk models to include physical and transition risks.
result Calculates incremental credit losses due to climate risks.
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
problem Climate-related risks affecting asset performance and productivity.
method Uses the Vasicek model with downward jumps to represent climate impacts on asset dynamics.
result Expected losses increase over time due to climate-related extreme events.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
problem Impact of climate change expectations on fossil fuel markets and prices.
method Dynamic, general equilibrium model of climate-change-linked transition risk.
result Climate change expectations can lead to either increased or decreased fossil fuel prices, depending on economic responses.