A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new stochastic method to calibrate climate risks in financial models.
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for capital charges are numerically compared to the current proposals by the Basel Commit…
Many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach to quantify the operational risk capital charge under Basel II requirements. It is common practice to estimate the capital charge using the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution, calculated using point estimators of the frequency and severity distribution paramet…
Basel III introduces new capital charges for CVA. These charges, and the Basel 2.5 default capital charge can be mitigated by CDS. Therefore, to price in the capital relief that CDS contracts provide, we introduce a CDS pricing model with three legs: premium; default protection; and capital relief. If markets are compl…
Although not a formal pricing consideration, gap risk or hedging errors are the norm of derivatives businesses. Starting with the gap risk during a margin period of risk of a repurchase agreement (repo), this article extends the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing framework by introducing a reserve capital approach to …
By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur with economic intuition, the risk weight formulas proposed by the committee wil…
Dynamic model considers private asset markets' complexities.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
The strengthening of capital requirements has induced banks and traders to consider charging a so called capital valuation adjustment (KVA) to the clients in OTC transactions. This roughly corresponds to charge the clients ex-ante the profit requirement that is asked to the trading desk. In the following we try to deli…
Even in the simple one-factor credit portfolio model that underlies the Basel II regulatory capital rules coming into force in 2007, the exact contributions to credit value-at-risk can only be calculated with Monte-Carlo simulation or with approximation algorithms that often involve numerical integration. As this may r…
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
This study analyzes how carbon pricing affects credit risk measures in a portfolio.
The study calculates securities lending haircuts and indemnification costs.
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
Model shows how financial markets can decarbonize under climate uncertainty.
Developing a climate-aware pricing framework for XL reinsurance and CAT bonds under non-stationary catastrophe risk.
We propose a portfolio approach for operational risk quantification based on a class of analytical models from which we derive new results on the correlation problem. In particular, we show that uniform correlation is a robust assumption for measuring capital charges in these models.
Proposes a new framework for environmental CVA with robust wrong-way risk.
This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the …
The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above some threshold. This paper studies the impact of ignoring data truncation on the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution for operational risk for a broad range of distribution parameters and truncation levels. Loss frequency and severity are modelled by the P…
The paper explains the fair basis in bond-CDS trading during financial crises.
SHARC explains machine learning risk models for regulatory capital, linking outputs to scenarios.
Modeling bank portfolio risk under climate transition impacts.
In this paper we present an econophysic model for the description of shares transactions in a capital market. For introducing the fundamentals of this model we used an analogy between the electrical field produced by a system of charges and the overall of economic and financial information of the shares transactions fr…
We show how the cost of funding the collateral in a particular set up can be equal to the Bilateral Valuation Adjustment with the "funded" probability of default, leading to the definition of a Funded Bilateral Valuation Adjustment (FBVA). That set up can also be viewed by an investor as an effective way to restructure…
To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this paper we suggest a new …
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved to use the approach in practice. In this paper we review the quantitative metho…
The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions…
A repurchase agreement lets investors borrow cash to buy securities. Financier only lends to securities' market value after a haircut and charges interest. Repo pricing is characterized with its puzzling dual pricing measures: repo haircut and repo spread. This article develops a repo haircut model by designing haircut…
This paper investigates calculations of robust funding valuation adjustment (FVA) for over the counter (OTC) derivatives under distributional uncertainty using Wasserstein distance as the ambiguity measure. Wrong way funding risk can be characterized via the robust FVA formulation. The simpler dual formulation of the r…
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
This study examines the execution phase of corporate share buy-backs, highlighting inefficiencies and costs.
Machine learning predicts greenhouse gas emissions for undisclosed companies.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Paper improves SVaR estimation for stress testing under macro scenarios using a hybrid GPR-HS framework.
We investigate a multi-factor extension of the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model that underlies the capital charges of the "Basel II Accord". In this extended model, it is still possible to derive closed-form solutions for the risk contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As an application of the…
Study on charged parallel spinors and mass-charge inequalities.
Throughout the literature on the charged Riemannian Penrose inequality, it is generally assumed that there is no charged matter present; that is, the electric field is divergence-free. The aim of this article is to clarify when the charged Riemannian Penrose inequality holds in the presence of charged matter, and when …
Two approaches detect EV charging patterns at stations.
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets. Overall, in this work we developed various metrics associated with catastrophic bifurca…
This paper considers nonlinear regular-singular stochastic optimal control of large insurance company. The company controls the reinsurance rate and dividend payout process to maximize the expected present value of the dividend pay-outs until the time of bankruptcy. However, if the optimal dividend barrier is too low t…
Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
New framework bridges climate science and ML for easier climate model emulation.