arXiv research

Thanks to their versatility, ease of deployment and high-performance, surrogate models have become staple tools in the arsenal of uncertainty quantification (UQ). From local interpolants to global spectral decompositions, surrogates are characterised by their ability to efficiently emulate complex computational models …

New method integrates real and synthetic data to improve machine learning models.

Local surrogate model improves time series forecasts and provides interpretable explanations.

We provide novel theoretical insights on structured prediction in the context of efficient convex surrogate loss minimization with consistency guarantees. For any task loss, we construct a convex surrogate that can be optimized via stochastic gradient descent and we prove tight bounds on the so-called "calibration func…

The paper develops a faster surrogate model for simulators using hybrid methods.

Empirical risk minimization frequently employs convex surrogates to underlying discrete loss functions in order to achieve computational tractability during optimization. However, classical convex surrogates can only tightly bound modular loss functions, sub-modular functions or supermodular functions separately while …

EPGP surrogate outperforms finite elements in solving wave equations.

We use surrogate losses to obtain several new regret bounds and new algorithms for contextual bandit learning. Using the ramp loss, we derive new margin-based regret bounds in terms of standard sequential complexity measures of a benchmark class of real-valued regression functions. Using the hinge loss, we derive an ef…

Unified framework for learning quantum models from limited measurements.

Learning to rank is a supervised learning problem where the output space is the space of rankings but the supervision space is the space of relevance scores. We make theoretical contributions to the learning to rank problem both in the online and batch settings. First, we propose a perceptron-like algorithm for learnin…

Unified approach for federated learning using MM optimization.

A new Bayesian optimization method using Poisson process for better noise robustness.

Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.

We present a new machine learning approach to estimate personalized treatment effects in the classical potential outcomes framework with binary outcomes. To overcome the problem that both treatment and control outcomes for the same unit are required for supervised learning, we propose surrogate loss functions that inco…

The aim of the present paper is to develop a strategy for solving reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems that remains applicable when the performance models are expensive to evaluate. Starting with the premise that simulation-based approaches are not affordable for such problems, and that the most-probab…

A problem of considerable importance within the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the development of efficient methods for the construction of accurate surrogate models. Such efforts are particularly important to applications constrained by high-dimensional uncertain parameter spaces. The difficulty of accura…

Deep adaptive sampling improves surrogate modeling for complex systems.

ASADG improves data generation for accurate surrogate modeling of complex physical problems.

Local surrogate models, to approximate the local decision boundary of a black-box classifier, constitute one approach to generate explanations for the rationale behind an individual prediction made by the back-box. This paper highlights the importance of defining the right locality, the neighborhood on which a local su…

Annealed Entropic Allocation improves ranking and selection by mitigating hard switching and improving finite-budget discrimination.

New algorithm uses machine learning to predict rewards for decision-making problems.

Neural networks are increasingly used in complex (data-driven) simulations as surrogates or for accelerating the computation of classical surrogates. In many applications physical constraints, such as mass or energy conservation, must be satisfied to obtain reliable results. However, standard machine learning algorithm…

Model discrimination identifies a mathematical model that usefully explains and predicts a given system's behaviour. Researchers will often have several models, i.e. hypotheses, about an underlying system mechanism, but insufficient experimental data to discriminate between the models, i.e. discard inaccurate models. G…

Surrogate models improve tidal model calibration efficiency.

Study examines neural network surrogate models for uncertainty in heat conduction problems.

New statistical guarantee improves conformal predictors for small datasets.

Double descent refers to the phase transition that is exhibited by the generalization error of unregularized learning models when varying the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of training samples. The recent success of highly over-parameterized machine learning models such as deep neural networks ha…

When learning from a batch of logged bandit feedback, the discrepancy between the policy to be learned and the off-policy training data imposes statistical and computational challenges. Unlike classical supervised learning and online learning settings, in batch contextual bandit learning, one only has access to a colle…

Enhanced Gaussian process models accelerate optimization and posterior approximation.

New bounds show polyhedral surrogates are optimal for generalization.

Design optimization techniques are often used at the beginning of the design process to explore the space of possible designs. In these domains illumination algorithms, such as MAP-Elites, are promising alternatives to classic optimization algorithms because they produce diverse, high-quality solutions in a single run,…

A new method for creating simpler models from complex ones.

This work shows how to efficiently simulate parts of quantum landscapes using classical computers.

OptIMIS method improves SRAM yield estimation efficiency and accuracy.

A new framework selects information sources to test hypotheses robustly, even with misclassifications.

Parametric shape optimization aims at minimizing an objective function f(x) where x are CAD parameters. This task is difficult when f is the output of an expensive-to-evaluate numerical simulator and the number of CAD parameters is large. Most often, the set of all considered CAD shapes resides in a manifold of lower e…

We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and control flow of the reference simulator. Our surrogates target stochastic simul…

Randomizing the Fourier-transform (FT) phases of temporal-spatial data generates surrogates that approximate examples from the data-generating distribution. We propose such FT surrogates as a novel tool to augment and analyze training of neural networks and explore the approach in the example of sleep-stage classificat…

We formalize and study the natural approach of designing convex surrogate loss functions via embeddings, for problems such as classification, ranking, or structured prediction. In this approach, one embeds each of the finitely many predictions (e.g.\ rankings) as a point in $\mathbb{R}^d$, assigns the original loss val…

The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.

Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.

Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables i…

The paper proposes a method to assess surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.

This paper develops efficient surrogate models for optimization of complex dynamical systems.

Quantum circuits reveal pathways to dequantization in machine learning models.

We present surrogate regret bounds for arbitrary surrogate losses in the context of binary classification with label-dependent costs. Such bounds relate a classifier's risk, assessed with respect to a surrogate loss, to its cost-sensitive classification risk. Two approaches to surrogate regret bounds are developed. The…

This work improves surrogate models for balancing accuracy and cost in multi-fidelity methods.

Adversarial consistency depends on the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.