This paper suggests claim history will be deprecated in future auto insurance rates.
problem The role of historical claim records in auto insurance rates.
method Proposes a new risk variable elimination method and real-time road risk model design.
result Claim history will be considered a 'noise' factor and deprecated in Pay-How-You-Drive models.
Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected during a claim's development over time. We present the hierarchical reserving mod…
Paper proposes a surrogate model for efficient experience rating in large insurance portfolios.
problem Inexpensive and transparent computation of Bayesian premiums for large insurance portfolios.
method Surrogate modeling approach using likelihood-based summary statistics.
result Reduced computational burden and provided a transparent way of computing Bayesian premiums.
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
problem Including market microstructure effects in dynamic asset pricing.
method Discrete binary tree model with history-dependent underlying security prices.
result The model preserves historical price dynamics and is market-complete, arbitrage-free.
Risk adjustment has become an increasingly important tool in healthcare. It has been extensively applied to payment adjustment for health plans to reflect the expected cost of providing coverage for members. Risk adjustment models are typically estimated using linear regression, which does not fully exploit the informa…
Paper proposes deep learning for fake claim detection on social media.
problem Spread of false information on social media.
method Extended LIAR dataset with sentiment analysis; BERT-Base model for classification.
result 70% accuracy in classifying claims as genuine or fake.
Neural networks improve loss reserving with case estimates and transaction data.
problem Improving loss reserving accuracy using neural networks.
method Comparison of feed-forward and recurrent neural networks trained on case estimates and transaction data.
result Case estimates significantly improve predictions, but memory-equipped neural networks offer minimal additional benefit.
SPLICE simulates incurred losses and their revisions.
problem Simulating incurred losses and their revisions in insurance.
method Continuous time simulation of individual claims with revisions over their lifetime.
result Incorporates dependencies and properties of incurred losses.
Machine learning detects NASH patients from medical claims data.
problem Detecting undiagnosed NASH patients for screening and management.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees trained on administrative medical claims data.
result Model precision for NASH detection is significantly higher than NASH incidence.
ZiMM model predicts long-term blurry relapses from non-clinical claims data.
problem Predicting long-term blurry relapses after medical acts.
method Introduces ZiMM (Zero-inflated Mixture of Multinomial distributions) and a deep-learning architecture (ZiMM Encoder-Decoder) to learn from sparse, irregular patterns in claims data.
result ZiMM ED improves predictions over various baselines, including non-deep learning and deep-learning approaches.
The bias-variance tradeoff doesn't always apply in neural networks, contradicting textbook claims.
problem The bias-variance tradeoff is not universally applicable in neural networks, contradicting textbook teachings.
method Extensive experiments and analysis on neural networks, revisiting Geman et al. (1992) experiments.
result Neural networks do not exhibit a bias-variance tradeoff when increasing network width, contradicting textbook claims.
Study predicts high-cost patients using insurance claims data.
problem Accurately identifying high-cost patients to manage costs.
method Applied machine learning to health insurance claims data.
result Developed a high-performance algorithm with 91.2% AUC.
Method proposed for pricing insurance products covering both foreseeable and unforeseeable risks.
problem Pricing insurance products that include unforeseeable risks.
method Mixed Poisson process with Bayesian setup and linear exponential family distributions.
result Bayesian premiums are more reactive to claim trends than traditional ones.
Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
problem Modeling irreversible processes in systems with uncertain histories.
method A Gibbs-type measure weighted by energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, interpreted as a Bayesian posterior.
result The measure concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution.
HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.
problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.
Overview of affine surface area and its history.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
result None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
Survey on DDVV-type inequalities, their history, and recent developments.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
result Survey of DDVV-type inequalities and their history and recent developments.
We propose a new method for assessing agents' influence in financial network structures, which takes into consideration the intensity of interactions. A distinctive feature of this approach is that it considers not only direct interactions of agents of the first level and indirect interactions of the second level, but …
SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.
Paper analyzes history-based RL methods for MDPs, introduces a theoretical framework and practical algorithm.
problem Improving RL performance in MDPs using history-based features.
method Theoretical framework for history-based RL, practical algorithm design.
result Practical RL algorithm shows effectiveness on continuous control tasks.
Reinforcement learning improves insurance claims reserving by learning from all claim trajectories.
problem Traditional reserving models learn only from settled claims, missing valuable data from ongoing claims.
method Formulated as a Markov decision process, uses reinforcement learning to update OCL estimates sequentially.
result Soft Actor-Critic implementation achieves competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate performance.
Neural networks improve cancer risk prediction from family history data.
problem Improving cancer risk prediction from family history data using machine learning.
method Developed and trained neural network models on large pedigrees to predict hereditary cancers.
result Neural networks can achieve nearly optimal prediction performance and outperform traditional models in misreported data.
The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.
problem Analyzing the impact of bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement on insurance companies' financial stability.
method Examined a discrete-time risk model with time-varying premiums, evaluating two types of claims and settlement delays.
result Delayed settlement of by-claims leads to lower ruin probabilities under specific assumptions.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.
It is shown how the generating functional method of De Dominicis can be used to solve the dynamics of the original version of the minority game (MG), in which agents observe real as opposed to fake market histories. Here one again finds exact closed equations for correlation and response functions, but now these are de…
The opioid epidemic in the United States claims over 40,000 lives per year, and it is estimated that well over two million Americans have an opioid use disorder. Over-prescription and misuse of prescription opioids play an important role in the epidemic. Individuals who are prescribed opioids, and who are diagnosed wit…
Deep Claim predicts payer responses from claims data using deep learning.
problem Predicting payer responses from claims data to improve healthcare performance.
method Learning complex dependencies in claim inputs to create a compact representation, then using deep learning to predict responses.
result Deep Claim improves claim denial prediction by 22.21%.
We present in this chapter (Chapter II) the history of ideas which lead up to the development of modern knot theory. We are more detailed when pre-XX century history is reported. With more recent times we are more selective, stressing developments related to Jones type invariants of links. In the Appendix, A.Przybyszew…
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
problem Traditional claims reserving methods are limited in individual claim prediction.
method Restructured data utilization for CL prediction, using multi-period factors.
result Neural networks applied for individual claims reserving.
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a …
Two machine learning models detect anomalies in ER claims, saving up to 40% in improper payments.
problem Improper health insurance payments from fraud and upcoding.
method Two machine learning models: an upcoding model based on severity code distributions and a random forest model for claim sorting.
result Random forest model saved 12% to 40% in improper payments compared to a baseline approach.
Paper tackles reinforcement learning for STL specifications with state history.
problem Learning optimal policies to satisfy STL specifications often requires too much state history, making the problem computationally intractable.
method Proposes a compact augmented state-space representation to capture state history and an approximation method to solve the objective.
result Shows the performance bound of the approximate solution and compares it with an existing technique.
Optimizes insurance processing capacity to minimize costs.
problem Processing delays and backlogs in insurance claims.
method Optimal capacity selection to minimize delay-adjusted and fixed costs.
result Minimizes claims costs by balancing processing capacity and delays.
New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.
problem Incomplete claim data due to reporting and settlement delays.
method Develops an occurrence and development model to estimate both claims and premiums.
result Effective resolution of pricing and reserving inconsistencies.
We propose an online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic multi-armed bandit. The algorithm adds O(t) i.i.d. pseudo-rewards to its history in round t and then pulls the arm with the highest average reward in its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration (PHE). Th…
This study compares the largest claims from two insurance portfolios using stochastic orderings.
problem Comparing the largest claims from two heterogeneous insurance portfolios.
method Used various stochastic orderings and established sufficient conditions associated with model parameters.
result Established sufficient conditions for comparing the largest claims from two insurance portfolios.
Model detects insurance fraud using social network analysis.
problem Fraudulent insurance claims by exaggeration or intentional damage.
method Network construction linking claims and parties, BiRank algorithm for fraud score computation, feature extraction from network and claims, supervised model building.
result Network features improve fraud detection performance.
We propose a new online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic linear bandit. The algorithm pulls the arm with the highest estimated reward in a linear model trained on its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE). The perturbed history is …
We consider trading in a financial market with proportional transaction costs. In the frictionless case, claims are maximal if and only if they are priced by a consistent price process--the equivalent of an equivalent martingale measure. This result fails in the presence of transaction costs. A properly maximal claim i…
Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.
problem Maximizing utility from an unknown contingent claim.
method Robust optimization with quantile formulation and variational inequalities.
result Optimal trading strategy and utility indifference price determined.
Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
problem Accurately predicting individual claim reserves in insurance contracts.
method Multinomial logistic regression to model claim activation and development.
result The model generates accurate predictions of total and per coverage reserves.
BERT learns claim descriptions to identify patent novelty.
problem Identifying novel patent claims among existing documents.
method Training BERT on concatenated claims and descriptions, scoring BERT's output.
result BERT identifies relevant X documents for patent novelty.
We give an explicit definition of decentralization and show you that decentralization is almost impossible for the current stage and Bitcoin is the first truly noncentralized currency in the currency history. We propose a new framework of noncentralized cryptocurrency system with an assumption of the existence of a wea…
Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these claims are non-fraudulent, fraud detection is core for insurance companies. The ultimate goal is a predictive model to single out the fraudulent claims and pay out the non-fraudulent ones immediately. Modern machine learning methods are we…
Cold-start PV forecasting uses synthetic histories to train time-series foundation models.
problem Cold-start PV forecasting
method Zero-shot pipeline with synthetic histories
result TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback strategy
Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.
problem Computing expected future prices of contingent claims.
method Dynamic change of measure approach to construct EEMs.
result EEMs provide physical and pricing expectations of contingent claim prices.
Epsilon-machines are minimal, unifilar presentations of stationary stochastic processes. They were originally defined in the history machine sense, as hidden Markov models whose states are the equivalence classes of infinite pasts with the same probability distribution over futures. In analyzing synchronization, though…
A new method for modeling insurance claim frequencies using random proportions.
problem Inaccurate fitting of classical distributions to insurance claim frequency data.
method Modeling claim frequencies using random proportions of insurance contracts and applying goodness-of-fit tests.
result A new statistical approach for better modeling insurance claim frequencies.