Modeling territorial control in civil wars using HMMs.
problem Lack of fine-grained data on territorial control in civil wars.
method Theoretical model of territorial control and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs).
result HMMs can estimate levels of territorial control in civil wars.
HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.
problem Ethical and historical controversies surrounding HSBC's early operations.
method Analyzing HSBC's growth and survival through historical context and legal practices.
result HSBC's resilience and success were partly due to unethical practices like opium trade.
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
problem Surviving and growing in hostile political environments.
method Inorganic growth, leveraging deregulation, and strategic acquisitions.
result HSBC became a global banking behemoth despite political challenges.
The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is non-trivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine informati…
We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…
New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.
problem Analyzing a game of war of attrition under complete information.
method Examined the stability of equilibria in pure and mixed strategies under varying payoffs.
result Pure strategy equilibria are more robust to perturbations of the canonical model.
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…
New method reduces bias in sparse Bayesian learning.
problem High sparsity in statistical models leads to significant bias.
method Variable-coefficient ℓ1 penalty with hyperpriors. result Reduces bias in sparse Bayesian learning.
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
problem Quantifying the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
method Selected economic indexes, created datasets, and used machine learning (Linear Regression) for forecasting.
result The model accurately predicted the effects of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.
problem Financial resilience of agri-food companies in Spain during the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
method Cluster analysis using centred log-ratios for compositional data of financial ratios.
result Increase in resilient firms by 2023, highlighting sectoral adaptation to economic challenges.
Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.
problem Understanding order dynamics during extreme macroeconomic events.
method First-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model.
result Active participation by different traders during high volatility days, influencing market outcomes.
WAR method improves classifier robustness in noisy label datasets.
problem Learning robust classifiers in presence of noisy labels.
method Adversarial regularization based on Wasserstein distance.
result WAR method outperforms state-of-the-art competitors on noisy label datasets.
We perform detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) to investigate its efficiency. We further put forward a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis by employing th…
We present a new, efficient method for automatically detecting severe conflicts `edit wars' in Wikipedia and evaluate this method on six different language WPs. We discuss how the number of edits, reverts, the length of discussions, the burstiness of edits and reverts deviate in such pages from those following the gene…
This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.
problem The impact of the U.S.--China trade war on stock markets and financial contagion.
method Developed a novel jump-diffusion process to account for risk contagion, using high-frequency financial data and quasi-maximum likelihood estimator.
result Evidence of financial contagion from the U.S. to China, with changes in risk contagion channels.
Paper examines how adversarial ML attacks and defenses impact civil liberties and human rights.
problem Impact of adversarial machine learning on civil liberties and human rights.
method Uses insights from STS, anthropology, and human rights literature.
result Adversarial defenses can be used to suppress dissent and limit investigation of ML systems.
DefogGAN predicts hidden RTS game information to aid strategic decision-making.
problem Predicting hidden information in real-time strategy games like StarCraft.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with pyramidal reconstruction loss.
result DefogGAN predicts enemy buildings and combat units as accurately as professional players.
It is demonstrated that the US economy has on the long-term in reality been governed by the Keynesian approach to economics independent of the current official economical policy. This is done by calculating the two-point correlation function between the fluctuations of the DJIA and the US public debt. We find that the …
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolve…
This paper reviews traditional and modern methods for detecting structural damage using vibrations.
problem Early warning of structural damage to maintain civil structures.
method Vibration-based methods and ML/DL algorithms.
result ML and DL algorithms show superior performance in detecting structural damage.
Just as war is sometimes fallaciously represented as a zero sum game -- when in fact war is a negative sum game - stock market trading, a positive sum game over time, is often erroneously represented as a zero sum game. This is called the "zero sum fallacy" -- the erroneous belief that one trader in a stock market exch…
The inequality of wealth distribution is a universal phenomenon in the civilized nations, and it is often imputed to the Matthew effect, that is, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Some philosophers unjustified this phenomenon and tried to put the human civilization upon the evenness of wealth. Noticing the f…
We develop an option pricing model based on a tug-of-war game. This two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game is formulated in the context of a multi-dimensional financial market. The issuer and the holder try to manipulate asset price processes in order to minimize and maximize the expected discounted reward. W…
Paper proposes a new model to prevent tariff wars by balancing trade balances.
problem Inequality in trade relations and tariff wars.
method Developed an algorithm to achieve zero trade balance for each country.
result Achieving zero trade balance prevents tariff wars and recession.
Law responds to adversarial machine learning threats.
problem Adversarial machine learning attacks and their legal implications.
method Scenarios and legal analysis of adversarial ML attacks.
result Some attacks are more likely to result in liability.
Study shows negative war news correlates with increased stock market volatility.
problem Understanding the impact of geopolitical events on financial markets.
method Used BERT model for sentiment analysis and GARCH model for volatility forecasting.
result Negative news sentiment during geopolitical crises is associated with increased stock market volatility.
Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not a…
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
A game theory study examines gradual concessions in variable contribution games under uncertainty.
problem Gradualism in contribution games due to free rider effect.
method Stochastic game analysis of variable contribution games, extending Nerlove-Arrow model.
result Equilibrium characterized by regular control strategies leading to gradual concession.
Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.
problem Lack of awareness of project manager selection criteria and associated risks.
method Combined ANP-FMEA approach for risk analysis.
result ANP-FMEA model identifies more significant risks than traditional FMEA.
Study examines how war impacts financial entropy.
problem Analyzing sudden events' impact on financial markets.
method Investigates entropy changes in Polish stock market data.
result Entropy analysis reveals market changes due to extreme events.
The paper develops a method to discover causal relations and predict material laws with uncertainty quantification.
problem Discovering causal relations and predicting material laws with uncertainty in civil engineering applications.
method The paper develops a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data. It uses a deep neural network with dropout layers for uncertainty quantification and propagates predictions through a causal graph.
result The method accurately predicts material laws and quantifies uncertainty, as demonstrated in two numerical examples.
Generative Adversarial Networks create synthetic data for structural damage detection.
problem Data scarcity in structural damage detection.
method 1-D Wasserstein Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (1-D WDCGAN-GP) for synthetic data generation.
result Generated synthetic data improves damage detection accuracy in 1-D Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.
Study improves StarCraft bot's strategy selection with partial observations.
problem Selecting effective strategies in real-time strategy games with limited information.
method Utilized full game state information during training to predict opponent strategies.
result Substantial win rate improvements over a fixed-strategy baseline.
Paper proposes a holistic optimization for civil structures considering uncertainties.
problem Designing civil structures requires integration of material and structural design.
method Holistic optimization combining concrete mixture design and structural simulations.
result Inverted workflow allows consideration of new mixtures and uncertainties.
Paper introduces a streaming compression method for monitoring pedestrian events on footbridges.
problem Storage and analysis of high-rate sensor data from instrumented infrastructure is computationally challenging.
method Develops a streaming feature-based compression method to preserve key patterns and features of pedestrian events.
result Demonstrates the trade-off between compression and accuracy during and between pedestrian events.
Study finds varying market efficiency in prewar and wartime Japanese stock market.
problem Measuring market efficiency in prewar and wartime Japanese stock market.
method Using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the study examines market efficiency over time and historical events.
result The adaptive market hypothesis is supported in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market, with efficiency varying over time and with historical events.
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries through time, and that this can help us to anticipate the more distant future: global…
Neural networks improve scalability for agent-based modeling demonstrations.
problem Scalability issues in training models of dynamic systems from demonstrations.
method Use of neural networks to reduce the search space for agent-level parameters.
result More scalable architecture for reproducing emergent behavior from demonstrations.
In many developing countries intellectual property infringement and the commerce of pirate goods is an entrepreneurial activity. Digital piracy is very often the only media for having access to music, cinema, books and software. At the same time, bio-prospecting and infringement of indigenous knowledge rights by intern…
The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
problem Forecasting future conflict states for national policy decisions.
method Conformal prediction on Markov processes for temporally-dependent data.
result Conformal prediction provides valid uncertainty quantification and robustness to model misspecification.
A movie multilayer network model captures narration from script, subtitles, and content.
problem Discovering content and stories in movies using network models.
method Developed a multilayer network model using visual and textual semantic cues.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the model on the Star Wars saga.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Study predicts social relationships using triadic influence from social networks.
problem Difficulty in quantifying social relationships and their dynamics.
method Real social networks of 13 schools, neural networks, high-dimensional embedding.
result Triadic influence achieves highest accuracy in predicting student relationships.
This paper proposes using DLT to expand SDRs for global stability.
problem Political instability and currency wars threaten global value chains.
method Proposes a two-step approach for IMF to integrate DLT into SDRs.
result SDRs can be redefined as a new reserve currency in a decentralized world.
Autoencoder CNN detects landmines from GPR data.
problem Detecting buried landmines in various conditions.
method Autoencoder trained on landmine-free GPR data.
result 93% accuracy on challenging datasets.
Proposes efficient algorithm for system-level I&M decisions under uncertainty.
problem Optimal management strategies for deteriorating civil engineering systems.
method Factored partially observable Markov decision process with Bayesian networks and DDMAC reinforcement learning.
result DDMAC policies offer substantial benefits over heuristic approaches in system-level cost optimization.
Geodesic flows on certain surfaces are shown to be semi-conjugate to expansive flows.
problem Understanding geodesic flows on compact surfaces without conjugate points.
method Time-preserving semi-conjugation to a continuous expansive flow.
result Geodesic flows on compact surfaces without conjugate points of genus > 1 have a unique measure of maximal entropy.