The July Revolution in Bangladesh was fueled by state violence, which paradoxically strengthened the movement.
problem Understanding how state repression can paradoxically lead to increased mobilization during civil resistance.
method Mixed-methods approach combining qualitative narrative and quantitative analysis using machine learning and statistical modeling.
result The July Revolution was driven by a contingent, non-linear backfire effect triggered by specific catalytic moral shocks and accelerated by the viral reaction to state brutality.
Neural networks improve scalability for agent-based modeling demonstrations.
problem Scalability issues in training models of dynamic systems from demonstrations.
method Use of neural networks to reduce the search space for agent-level parameters.
result More scalable architecture for reproducing emergent behavior from demonstrations.
Gang violence is a severe issue in major cities across the U.S. and recent studies [Patton et al. 2017] have found evidence of social media communications that can be linked to such violence in communities with high rates of exposure to gang activity. In this paper we partnered computer scientists with social work rese…
Machine learning improves risk assessment for gender-based violence victims.
problem Accurately predicting recidivism risk in gender-based crime victims.
method Applied machine learning techniques to create models predicting recidivism risk.
result Proposed ML method outperforms classical statistical methods.
I present here an experimental system for identifying and annotating metaphor in corpora. It is designed to plug in to Metacorps, an experimental web app for annotating metaphor. As Metacorps users annotate metaphors, the system will use user annotations as training data. When the system is confident, it will suggest a…
While the costs of human violence have attracted a great deal of attention from the research community, the effects of the network-on-network (NoN) violence popularised by Generative Adversarial Networks have yet to be addressed. In this work, we quantify the financial, social, spiritual, cultural, grammatical and derm…
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…
We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time…
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
Paper examines how adversarial ML attacks and defenses impact civil liberties and human rights.
problem Impact of adversarial machine learning on civil liberties and human rights.
method Uses insights from STS, anthropology, and human rights literature.
result Adversarial defenses can be used to suppress dissent and limit investigation of ML systems.
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolve…
This paper reviews traditional and modern methods for detecting structural damage using vibrations.
problem Early warning of structural damage to maintain civil structures.
method Vibration-based methods and ML/DL algorithms.
result ML and DL algorithms show superior performance in detecting structural damage.
The inequality of wealth distribution is a universal phenomenon in the civilized nations, and it is often imputed to the Matthew effect, that is, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Some philosophers unjustified this phenomenon and tried to put the human civilization upon the evenness of wealth. Noticing the f…
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
Domestic violence (DV) is a global social and public health issue that is highly gendered. Being able to accurately predict DV recidivism, i.e., re-offending of a previously convicted offender, can speed up and improve risk assessment procedures for police and front-line agencies, better protect victims of DV, and pote…
Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.
problem Lack of awareness of project manager selection criteria and associated risks.
method Combined ANP-FMEA approach for risk analysis.
result ANP-FMEA model identifies more significant risks than traditional FMEA.
Domestic Violence (DV) is considered as big social issue and there exists a strong relationship between DV and health impacts of the public. Existing research studies have focused on social media to track and analyse real world events like emerging trends, natural disasters, user sentiment analysis, political opinions,…
The paper develops a method to discover causal relations and predict material laws with uncertainty quantification.
problem Discovering causal relations and predicting material laws with uncertainty in civil engineering applications.
method The paper develops a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data. It uses a deep neural network with dropout layers for uncertainty quantification and propagates predictions through a causal graph.
result The method accurately predicts material laws and quantifies uncertainty, as demonstrated in two numerical examples.
Generative Adversarial Networks create synthetic data for structural damage detection.
problem Data scarcity in structural damage detection.
method 1-D Wasserstein Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (1-D WDCGAN-GP) for synthetic data generation.
result Generated synthetic data improves damage detection accuracy in 1-D Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.
Paper proposes a holistic optimization for civil structures considering uncertainties.
problem Designing civil structures requires integration of material and structural design.
method Holistic optimization combining concrete mixture design and structural simulations.
result Inverted workflow allows consideration of new mixtures and uncertainties.
We model anomaly and change in data by embedding the data in an ultrametric space. Taking our initial data as cross-tabulation counts (or other input data formats), Correspondence Analysis allows us to endow the information space with a Euclidean metric. We then model anomaly or change by an induced ultrametric. The in…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries through time, and that this can help us to anticipate the more distant future: global…
This study predicts crime trends in Denver using machine learning.
problem Predicting crime patterns to aid law enforcement and resource allocation.
method Statistical analysis, data visualization, and various classification algorithms.
result Ensemble Model 4 achieved the highest accuracy in predicting crime.
Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include ec…
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Study predicts social relationships using triadic influence from social networks.
problem Difficulty in quantifying social relationships and their dynamics.
method Real social networks of 13 schools, neural networks, high-dimensional embedding.
result Triadic influence achieves highest accuracy in predicting student relationships.
When machine learning systems fail because of adversarial manipulation, how should society expect the law to respond? Through scenarios grounded in adversarial ML literature, we explore how some aspects of computer crime, copyright, and tort law interface with perturbation, poisoning, model stealing and model inversion…
Proposes efficient algorithm for system-level I&M decisions under uncertainty.
problem Optimal management strategies for deteriorating civil engineering systems.
method Factored partially observable Markov decision process with Bayesian networks and DDMAC reinforcement learning.
result DDMAC policies offer substantial benefits over heuristic approaches in system-level cost optimization.
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguish…
This work analyzes fairness-accuracy trade-offs using causal methods.
problem Discriminatory behavior in machine learning systems based on sensitive characteristics.
method Introduces path-specific excess loss (PSEL) and causal fairness/utility ratio to quantify trade-offs.
result Shows how enforcing fairness constraints can reduce discrimination while increasing loss.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
problem Impact of anti-ELAB protests on Hong Kong firms' stock prices.
method Daily protesting intensity measured by number of protestors from 2019/6/6 to 2020/1/17; analyzed stock price changes of firms.
result Anti-ELAB protests negatively affected firms linked to pan-democrats, positively affected red chips.
EKH adds metrics to knot theory, enabling more detailed analysis.
problem Lack of quantitative data in knot theory.
method Integrates metric into knot theory with evolutionary Khovanov homology (EKH).
result EKH reveals non-trivial knot invariants at appropriate scales.
HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.
problem Ethical and historical controversies surrounding HSBC's early operations.
method Analyzing HSBC's growth and survival through historical context and legal practices.
result HSBC's resilience and success were partly due to unethical practices like opium trade.
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
problem Surviving and growing in hostile political environments.
method Inorganic growth, leveraging deregulation, and strategic acquisitions.
result HSBC became a global banking behemoth despite political challenges.
Homicide mortality is a worldwide concern and has occupied the agenda of researchers and public managers. In Brazil, homicide is the third leading cause of death in the general population and the first in the 15-39 age group. In South America, Brazil has the third highest homicide mortality, behind Venezuela and Colomb…
An increasing amount of civil engineering applications are utilising data acquired from infrastructure instrumented with sensing devices. This data has an important role in monitoring the response of these structures to excitation, and evaluating structural health. In this paper we seek to monitor pedestrian-events (su…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent α having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of α on the expectation and higher moments of the random variable. For instance, the moments of a right-tailed or right-asymmetric varia…
Can engineering neural networks be approached in a disciplined way similar to how engineers build software for civil aircraft? We present nn-dependability-kit, an open-source toolbox to support safety engineering of neural networks for autonomous driving systems. The rationale behind nn-dependability-kit is to consider…
New method models stopping times that can be equal with non-zero probability.
problem Standard stopping time models assume conditional independence, limiting flexibility.
method Modified Cox construction with bivariate exponential distribution.
result Created a family of stopping times that can be equal with positive probability.
China integrates ESG into corporate strategy for sustainable growth.
problem Corporate focus on short-term financial metrics.
method Deep integration of ESG principles into corporate culture and strategy.
result Companies are expected to fulfill social responsibilities and create long-term value.
Blockchain technology shows significant results and huge potential for serving as an interweaving fabric that goes through every industry and market, allowing decentralized and secure value exchange, thus connecting our civilization like never before. The standard approach for asset value predictions is based on market…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance. Traditionally, meteorologists tackle the task with human-driven feature extraction…
World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 -- M…
SLIM model predicts social network polarization using signed links.
problem Polarization and filter bubbles in social networks.
method Signed relational Latent dIstance Model (SLIM) using Skellam distribution.
result SLIM model accurately predicts friendships and animosity in social networks.
Many post-disaster and -conflict regions do not have sufficient data on their transportation infrastructure assets, hindering both mobility and reconstruction. In particular, as the number of aging and deteriorating bridges increase, it is necessary to quantify their load characteristics in order to inform maintenance …
A meticulous assessment of the risk of impacts associated with extreme wind events is of great necessity for populations, civil authorities as well as the insurance industry. Using the concept of spatial risk measure and related set of axioms introduced by Koch (2017, 2019), we quantify the risk of losses due to extrem…
The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is non-trivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine informati…
Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the stability principles for biomass in the ecosystem and for employment in economics are mathematically similar. The ecosystem is found to have a stable and an unstable stationary state with high (forest) and low (grasslands) biomass, respectively. In…