A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper shows distillation can maintain low model churn.
Reducing user attrition, i.e. churn, is a broad challenge faced by several industries. In mobile social games, decreasing churn is decisive to increase player retention and rise revenues. Churn prediction models allow to understand player loyalty and to anticipate when they will stop playing a game. Thanks to these pre…
User churn is an important issue in online services that threatens the health and profitability of services. Most of the previous works on churn prediction convert the problem into a binary classification task where the users are labeled as churned and non-churned. More recently, some works have tried to convert the us…
As mobile devices become more and more popular, mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. A critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand the churn behavior in mobile games, w…
As companies increase their efforts in retaining customers, being able to predict accurately ahead of time, whether a customer will churn in the foreseeable future is an extremely powerful tool for any marketing team. The paper describes in depth the application of Deep Learning in the problem of churn prediction. Usin…
Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies, especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase customer churn…
Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are bu…
Accurately predicting customer churn using large scale time-series data is a common problem facing many business domains. The creation of model features across various time windows for training and testing can be particularly challenging due to temporal issues common to time-series data. In this paper, we will explore …
Deep learning predicts customer churn in retail.
Customer temporal behavioral data was represented as images in order to perform churn prediction by leveraging deep learning architectures prominent in image classification. Supervised learning was performed on labeled data of over 6 million customers using deep convolutional neural networks, which achieved an AUC of 0…
Study compares classification techniques to predict customer churn in banking.
Bayesian model reduces TV watching data to 11 parameters for churn prediction.
New method predicts customer churn using mixed-penalty logistic regression.
As video games attract more and more players, the major challenge for game studios is to retain them. We present a deep behavioral analysis of churn (game abandonment) and what we called "purchase churn" (the transition from paying to non-paying user). A series of churning behavior profiles are identified, which allows…
Method detects critical events in complex systems by learning latent causal structure.
A churn prediction system guides telecom service providers to reduce revenue loss. However, the development of a churn prediction system for a telecom industry is a challenging task, mainly due to the large size of the data, high dimensional features, and imbalanced distribution of the data. In this paper, we present a…
Mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. One critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand user churn behavior in mobile games. Accurate churn prediction will benefit many st…
New model analyzes customer churn with tensor completion and binary data.
Study on rapid policy changes in reinforcement learning.
The emergence of mobile games has caused a paradigm shift in the video-game industry. Game developers now have at their disposal a plethora of information on their players, and thus can take advantage of reliable models that can accurately predict player behavior and scale to huge datasets. Churn prediction, a challeng…
Quantum machine learning boosts financial forecasting accuracy.
Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However, recurrent neural networks provide an alternative approach by which time-varying fea…
Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.
This paper illustrates the similarities between the problems of customer churn and employee turnover. An example of employee turnover prediction model leveraging classical machine learning techniques is developed. Model outputs are then discussed to design \& test employee retention policies. This type of retention dis…
In this study, a predictive model using Multi-layer Perceptron of Artificial Neural Network architecture was developed to predict customer churn in a financial institution. Previous researches have used supervised machine learning classifiers such as Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest…
ALICE combines feature selection and inter-rater agreeability for ML model insights.
SmallML predicts customer churn for SMEs with small data, improving accuracy by 24.2 points.
Interpretation of a machine learning induced models is critical for feature engineering, debugging, and, arguably, compliance. Yet, best of breed machine learning models tend to be very complex. This paper presents a method for model interpretation which has the main benefit that the simple interpretations it provides …
Proposes a greedy algorithm for telecom offers to retain subscribers.
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
We show that many machine learning goals, such as improved fairness metrics, can be expressed as constraints on the model's predictions, which we call rate constraints. We study the problem of training non-convex models subject to these rate constraints (or any non-convex and non-differentiable constraints). In the non…
We have created a framework for analyzing subscription based businesses in terms of a unified metric which we call SCV (single customer value). The major advance in this paper is to model customer churn as an exponential decay variable, which directly follows from experimental data relating to subscription based busine…
Survival analysis/time-to-event models are extremely useful as they can help companies predict when a customer will buy a product, churn or default on a loan, and therefore help them improve their ROI. In this paper, we introduce a new method to calculate survival functions using the Multi-Task Logistic Regression (MTL…
Data-driven approaches which aim to identify and predict player engagement are becoming increasingly popular in games industry contexts. This is due to the growing practice of tracking and storing large volumes of in-game telemetries coupled with a desire to tailor the gaming experience to the end-user's needs. These a…
CPP improves predictive model outputs for better intervention decisions.
We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers an…
PolicySynth improves synthetic data alignment with real data for better campaign decisions.
AI-driven sales prioritization boosts renewal bookings by 8.08%.
This guide clarifies techniques for assessing and comparing model calibration and performance.
FinPT uses large pretrained models to predict financial risks.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
We present a general framework for solving a large class of learning problems with non-linear functions of classification rates. This includes problems where one wishes to optimize a non-decomposable performance metric such as the F-measure or G-mean, and constrained training problems where the classifier needs to sati…
Telecommunications operators (telcos) traditional sources of income, voice and SMS, are shrinking due to customers using over-the-top (OTT) applications such as WhatsApp or Viber. In this challenging environment it is critical for telcos to maintain or grow their market share, by providing users with as good an experie…
The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.
Proposes a novel SVM model for binary classification with different misclassification costs.
Machine learning competitions such as those organized by Kaggle or KDD represent a useful benchmark for data science research. In this work, we present our winning solution to the Game Data Mining competition hosted at the 2017 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG 2017). The contest consisted of…
Unified approach adjusts classifiers to meet system-level constraints.
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.