A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Investigates chaotic financial time series with monthly contributions and devaluation.
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both …
We use standard deep neural networks to classify univariate time series generated by discrete and continuous dynamical systems based on their chaotic or non-chaotic behaviour. Our approach to circumvent the lack of precise models for some of the most challenging real-life applications is to train different neural netwo…
TSSC images enhance chaotic signal classification using ConvNets.
Panda predicts chaotic systems without retraining, showing emergent properties.
Surrogate testing techniques have been used widely to investigate the presence of dynamical nonlinearities, an essential ingredient of deterministic chaotic processes. Traditional surrogate testing subscribes to statistical hypothesis testing and investigates potential differences in discriminant statistics between the…
Bayesian method combines data assimilation, machine learning, and EM for chaotic dynamics.
Enhanced fuzzy system predicts chaotic time series with improved accuracy.
RNNs struggle with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients, but we found a way to optimize training.
Neural networks model financial data with Lévy processes.
Apparently random financial fluctuations often exhibit varying levels of complexity, chaos. Given limited data, predictability of such time series becomes hard to infer. While efficient methods of Lyapunov exponent computation are devised, knowledge about the process driving the dynamics greatly facilitates the complex…
New method recovers causal networks from short time-series data.
A pairwise clustering approach is applied to the analysis of the Dow Jones index companies, in order to identify similar temporal behavior of the traded stock prices. To this end, the chaotic map clustering algorithm is used, where a map is associated to each company and the correlation coefficients of the financial ti…
Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.
New methods improve Reservoir Computing for chaotic time series prediction.
Combines ML and KB modeling for large chaotic systems.
This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic reg…
New method models complex dynamics using a base variable.
Noise titration benchmarks time series forecasting models rigorously.
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time…
The existence of forbidden patterns, i.e., certain missing sequences in a given time series, is a recently proposed instrument of potential application in the study of time series. Forbidden patterns are related to the permutation entropy, which has the basic properties of classic chaos indicators, thus allowing to sep…
This work builds an automated anomaly detection method for chaotic time series, and more concretely for turbulent, high-dimensional, ocean simulations. We solve this task by extending the Echo State Network by spatially aware input maps, such as convolutions, gradients, cosine transforms, et cetera, as well as a spatia…
We analyze the time series of four major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple) before the digital market crash at the end of 2017 - beginning 2018. We introduce a methodology that combines topological data analysis with a machine learning technique -- -means clustering -- in order to automatical…
Modeling bank leverage dynamics using dynamical systems and neural networks.
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
MegazordNet combines stats and ML for better financial time series forecasting.
Combining LETKF and RC improves chaotic system prediction from noisy, sparse data.
Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) arises in modeling of financial time series. FIGARCH is essentially governed by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations = $(1-\sum\limits_{j=1}^q β_j L^j)σ_{t}^2 = ω+(1-\sum\limits_{j=1}^q β_j L^j -…
Fourier methods have a long and proven track record as an excellent tool in data processing. As memory and computational constraints gain importance in embedded and mobile applications, we propose to combine Fourier methods and recurrent neural network architectures. The short-time Fourier transform allows us to effici…
KSOS improves kernel learning for dynamical systems via global optimization.
Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
Proposes a graph-based approach for better stock prediction.
Chaos in cerebellar cells enhances complexity of neural patterns.
New PINN formulation respects causality for complex systems.
This paper proves long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
In this paper we test for the sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the so called "butterfly effect") of energy futures time series (heating oil, natural gas), and thus the determinism of those series. This paper is distinguished from previous studies in the following points: first, we reread existent works in th…
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
New method reconstructs hidden dynamics from low-dimensional time series.
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
Global models outperform univariate benchmarks in complex time series forecasting.
Deep learning scheme identifies and reconstructs chaotic and stochastic systems from noisy data.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
We propose a physics-informed Echo State Network (ESN) to predict the evolution of chaotic systems. Compared to conventional ESNs, the physics-informed ESNs are trained to solve supervised learning tasks while ensuring that their predictions do not violate physical laws. This is achieved by introducing an additional lo…
Distinguishing between classes of time series sampled from dynamic systems is a common challenge in systems and control engineering, for example in the context of health monitoring, fault detection, and quality control. The challenge is increased when no underlying model of a system is known, measurement noise is prese…
A recently proposed methodology called the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG) [Luque {\it et al.}, Phys. Rev. E., 80, 046103 (2009)] that constitutes a geometrical simplification of the well known Visibility Graph algorithm [Lacasa {\it et al.\/}, Proc. Natl. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 4972 (2008)], has been used to study the dis…
Stock prices predicted using a Transformer model.
This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies), during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality Plane. This planar representation allows the discrimination of different stocha…
High-dimensional time series are common in many domains. Since human cognition is not optimized to work well in high-dimensional spaces, these areas could benefit from interpretable low-dimensional representations. However, most representation learning algorithms for time series data are difficult to interpret. This is…