Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with long horizons using limited data.
method Sparse, time-dependent data inputs into reservoir computing.
result Achieves arbitrarily long prediction horizons for chaotic systems.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
Deep learning models learn chaotic system dynamics from real and simulated data.
problem Training deep learning models for chaotic systems requires big data.
method Jointly train deep neural networks on real and simulated data, enforcing physical laws.
result Proposes knowledge-based deep learning (KDL) for accurate forecasting of chaotic systems.
Panda predicts chaotic systems without retraining, showing emergent properties.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with small errors.
method Trained on a synthetic dataset of chaotic dynamical systems using evolutionary algorithms.
result Panda predicts unseen chaotic systems with zero-shot learning.
We propose a physics-informed Echo State Network (ESN) to predict the evolution of chaotic systems. Compared to conventional ESNs, the physics-informed ESNs are trained to solve supervised learning tasks while ensuring that their predictions do not violate physical laws. This is achieved by introducing an additional lo…
Analog forecasting uses local dynamics to predict chaotic systems.
problem Theoretical connections between analog forecasting and dynamical systems are overlooked.
method Local approximations of the system's dynamics, linear regression, and estimation of analog forecasting errors.
result Analog forecasting performances are highly linked to the local Jacobian matrix of the flow map.
This paper proves long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
problem Ensuring long-term accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for complex dynamical systems.
method Established conditions for long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems.
result Ensemble Kalman filters maintain small estimation error over long time horizons for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
Combining LETKF and RC improves chaotic system prediction from noisy, sparse data.
problem Improving chaotic system prediction from imperfect observations and models.
method Combining LETKF and RC to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems from noisy and sparsely distributed observations.
result The proposed method using LETKF and RC outperforms LETKF in predicting chaotic systems from noisy and sparse observations.
We use standard deep neural networks to classify univariate time series generated by discrete and continuous dynamical systems based on their chaotic or non-chaotic behaviour. Our approach to circumvent the lack of precise models for some of the most challenging real-life applications is to train different neural netwo…
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time…
Deep learning scheme identifies and reconstructs chaotic and stochastic systems from noisy data.
problem Challenging identification of governing equations from noisy and partial observations.
method Jointly learns inference model and governing laws using variational deep learning.
result Framework generalizes state-of-the-art methods and accounts for stochastic variabilities.
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
Novel methods improve Bayesian analysis of chaotic dynamical systems.
problem Bayesian parameter inference and trajectory reconstruction of chaotic systems with sparse and noisy data.
method Pilot MAGI (pMAGI) and Pilot MAGI Sequential Prediction (PMSP) methods.
result pMAGI and PMSP significantly outperform existing methods in accuracy and computational efficiency.
Enhanced model predicts chaotic systems with improved long-term accuracy.
problem Learning chaotic systems and long-term predictions from incomplete data.
method Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) model for online prediction.
result The model matches true chaotic system dynamics closely and improves long-term predictions.
New risk models use chaotic attractors to predict extreme events.
problem Predicting Black Swan events in financial markets.
method Combining heavy-tailed priors with chaotic dynamics (Lorenz and Rossler systems).
result Models generate volatility clustering, fat tails, and extreme events.
New PINN formulation respects causality for complex systems.
problem Existing PINNs fail to accurately simulate chaotic systems.
method Proposed a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions to respect physical causality.
result Significant accuracy improvements across chaotic systems.
New method calibrates predictions in chaotic systems using variational inference.
problem Uncertainty in data assimilation for chaotic systems.
method Variational inference applied to multivariate Gaussian distribution.
result Nearly perfectly calibrated predictions in chaotic Lorenz-96 dynamics.
Study chaotic dynamics in social stratification models leading to thermalization and turbulence.
problem Understanding social stratification dynamics through chaotic nonlinear systems.
method Modeling social network links with oscillators and energies, studying Hamiltonian evolution and nonlinear interactions.
result Chaotic dynamics leads to dynamical thermalization and Kolmogorov-Zakharov turbulence, with implications for wealth inequality.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …
ESNs with transfer learning predict long-term chaotic patterns in spatiotemporal dynamical systems.
problem Predicting long-term statistical patterns of spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical systems.
method Echo state networks (ESNs) with transfer learning.
result ESNs with transfer learning accurately predict long-term statistical properties of spatiotemporally chaotic PDEs.
The paper discusses various practical consequences of treating economics and finance as an inherently dynamic and chaotic system. On the theoretical side this looks at the general applicability of the market-making pricing approach to economics in general. The paper also discuses the consequences of the endogenous crea…
RNNs struggle with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients, but we found a way to optimize training.
problem Challenging training of RNNs with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients.
method Relating loss gradients to Lyapunov spectrum to optimize training on chaotic data.
result RNNs with chaotic dynamics always have diverging gradients, while stable ones have bounded gradients.
The OGY method is one of control methods for a chaotic system. In the method, we have to calculate a stabilizing periodic orbit embedded in its chaotic attractor. Thus, we cannot use this method in the case where a precise mathematical model of the chaotic system cannot be identified. In this case, the delayed feedback…
The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling …
Enhanced fuzzy system predicts chaotic time series with improved accuracy.
problem Forecasting chaotic time series with high uncertainty.
method Combines evolving fuzzy systems, participatory learning, KRLS, and type-2 fuzzy sets.
result Proposed model outperforms other methods in accuracy and complexity.
TreeDOX predicts chaotic systems without hyperparameter tuning.
problem Forecasting chaotic systems requires hyperparameter tuning, limiting adoption.
method TreeDOX uses time delay overembedding and Extra-Trees Regressors.
result TreeDOX achieves state-of-the-art performance on chaotic systems.
This paper presents a novel study on gas-like models for economic systems. The interacting agents and the amount of exchanged money at each trade are selected with different levels of randomness, from a purely random way to a more chaotic one. Depending on the interaction rules, these statistical models can present dif…
New method learns chaotic dynamics from single noisy trajectory.
problem Chaos in complex systems is hard to model accurately with machine learning.
method Adversarial optimal transport objectives to learn summary statistics and emulator from single noisy data.
result Emulators trained with proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.
MEDIDA discovers model errors in chaotic systems using sparse regression and data assimilation.
problem Model errors in chaotic systems lead to significant discrepancies between model predictions and real-world states.
method MEDIDA combines Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation to estimate and interpret model errors from noisy observations.
result MEDIDA successfully identifies different types of model errors in the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system.
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
The paper models star dynamics using Ricci flow and Perelman entropy, revealing chaotic behavior.
problem Modeling chaotic positional dynamics of stars in celestial systems.
method Discrete dynamical systems, Ricci flow, Perelman entropy, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation analysis.
result Entropy increases exponentially, indicating challenging long-term star position prediction.
Transfer learning improves chaotic dynamics predictions with less data.
problem Efficiently predicting chaotic dynamics with limited data.
method Transfer learning for nonlinear dynamics, optimizing transfer rate and leveraging small-scale turbulence universality.
result Significantly more accurate inference of chaotic dynamics achieved.
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics offers models of markets as complex systems, that try to comprehend macro-, system-wide states of the economy from the interaction of many agents at micro-level. One of these models is the gas-like mo…
A ML model accurately replicates chaotic dynamics across various parameters.
problem Replicating chaotic characteristics of non-linear dynamics using machine learning.
method A ML model trained to predict one-step-ahead states from historic states captures bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents universally.
result Variational quantum circuit outperforms classical models in reproducing long-term chaotic characteristics.
Simplifies neural network models by explicitly enforcing constraints in Cartesian coordinates.
problem Learning dynamics of complex systems efficiently and accurately.
method Embedding systems into Cartesian coordinates and using Lagrange multipliers to enforce constraints.
result Explicitly enforcing constraints leads to a 100x improvement in accuracy and data efficiency.
FCOC framework improves financial volatility forecasting.
problem Tackles dual challenges of feature fidelity and model responsiveness in financial volatility forecasting.
method Synergizes fractal feature extraction and dynamic chaotic oscillation processing.
result Demonstrates profound and generalizable impact on S\&P 500 and DJI datasets.
Gradient descent with chaotic perturbations improves generalization.
problem Improving generalization of gradient descent.
method Introducing chaotic perturbations to gradient descent to achieve improved generalization.
result Gradient descent with chaotic perturbations converges to a heavy-tailed SDE, leading to improved generalization.
Estimates system parameters from a single observation using kernel-based score.
problem Estimating parameters of a dynamical system from a high-dimensional signal.
method Kernel-based score to compare temporal dependencies between signal and model.
result Accuracy and efficiency demonstrated on chaotic systems.
This work introduces a method to learn dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements using multiple shooting.
problem Learning dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements is challenging due to system instability.
method A scalable method based on multiple shooting.
result Robust learning of latent representations of dynamical systems from noisy measurements.
Bayesian framework detects symmetries in chaotic dynamical systems.
problem Detecting symmetries in chaotic attractors for insights into dynamical system structure.
method Bayesian framework using Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances.
result Bayesian framework accurately recovers symmetries under high noise and small sample sizes.
Unified theory of θ-expectations derived from chaotic dynamics.
problem Non-convex stochastic control problems outside G-expectations.
method Spectral theory of transfer operators for uniformly hyperbolic flows, viscosity solutions to HJB equations.
result Affine Hessian, non-convex gradient structure of θ-expectation. ML models predict extreme events in the Hénon map with accuracy scaling with system parameters.
problem Predicting extreme events in chaotic dynamical systems like the Hénon map.
method Used machine learning algorithms to analyze and forecast extreme events in the Hénon map.
result The success rate of ML models depends on prediction time, number of training samples, and network size, with scaling relations to the system's topological entropy.
ITF improves DSR but inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood reduces it, affecting QoIs.
problem Curvature mismatch between teacher forcing and marginal likelihood in chaotic dynamical systems.
method Comparing objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs.
result Curvature inflation by ITF and reduction by marginal likelihood affect dynamical quantities of interest.
PySR method automates discovering equations from data in chaotic dynamics and epidemics.
problem Discovering equations from complex data in dynamical systems.
method Symbolic regression methods, focusing on PySR.
result PySR method efficiently infers equations from chaotic dynamics and epidemic models, matching original forms.
A new chaotic financial system is proposed by considering ethics involvement in a four-dimensional financial system with market confidence. A five-dimensional conformable derivative financial system is presented by introducing conformable fractional calculus to the integer-order system. A discretization scheme is propo…
We explore the hyperparameter space of reservoir computers used for forecasting of the chaotic Lorenz '63 attractor with Bayesian optimization. We use a new measure of reservoir performance, designed to emphasize learning the global climate of the forecasted system rather than short-term prediction. We find that optimi…
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics is offering models of markets as complex systems, such as the gas-like model, able to predict money distributions observed in real economies. However, this model reveals some technical hitches to expl…