Method recognizes chaotic regime in crypto markets.
problem Detecting critical transitions in crypto markets.
method Topological data analysis + k-means clustering.
result Early warning signals for crypto market crashes.
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48 results for “chaotic regime”
NTK reveals order and chaos in DNNs, affecting checkerboard and border artifacts.
problem Checkerboard and border artifacts in DNNs.
method Analysis using Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) in infinite-width setting.
result Transition between order and chaos regimes affects DNN performance.
New theory explains how chaotic training improves neural network generalization.
problem Understanding how chaotic training improves neural network generalization.
method Representing stochastic optimizers as random dynamical systems and introducing a new dimension concept.
result Generalization in chaotic training depends on the complete Hessian spectrum and partial determinants.
Study uses neural networks to detect nonlinear dynamics in short time series.
problem Challenges in testing dynamical nonlinearities in short time series.
method Recurrent neural network classification framework using raw time series data.
result Classifier accuracy is higher than 50% for chaotic processes, around 50% for nonlinearly correlated noise.
New PINN formulation respects causality for complex systems.
problem Existing PINNs fail to accurately simulate chaotic systems.
method Proposed a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions to respect physical causality.
result Significant accuracy improvements across chaotic systems.
Deep learning models learn chaotic system dynamics from real and simulated data.
problem Training deep learning models for chaotic systems requires big data.
method Jointly train deep neural networks on real and simulated data, enforcing physical laws.
result Proposes knowledge-based deep learning (KDL) for accurate forecasting of chaotic systems.
Gradient descent with chaotic perturbations improves generalization.
problem Improving generalization of gradient descent.
method Introducing chaotic perturbations to gradient descent to achieve improved generalization.
result Gradient descent with chaotic perturbations converges to a heavy-tailed SDE, leading to improved generalization.
Novel filtering method for high-dimensional chaotic systems.
problem Filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian models with chaotic dynamics and sparse observations.
method Transportation of measures, convex optimization, probabilistic graphical models, nonlinear couplings.
result State-of-the-art tracking performance on chaotic systems like Lorenz-96 model.
Our model predicts stock market intervals using chaotic fusion and graph convolutional networks.
problem Uncertainty in financial market predictions without quantified uncertainty.
method Bi-level chaotic fusion, graph convolutional networks, volatility-aware gating, temporal dependencies.
result Significant improvements in prediction intervals and coverage compared to existing methods.
ITF improves DSR but inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood reduces it, affecting QoIs.
problem Curvature mismatch between teacher forcing and marginal likelihood in chaotic dynamical systems.
method Comparing objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs.
result Curvature inflation by ITF and reduction by marginal likelihood affect dynamical quantities of interest.
Gradient descent with large steps leads to chaotic parameter space and unpredictable outcomes.
problem Understanding the behavior of gradient descent with large step sizes in matrix factorization.
method Analyzing the fractal structure of the parameter space and deriving critical step sizes for convergence.
result Gradient descent with large steps exhibits chaotic behavior and sensitivity to initialization, creating a fractal boundary between converging and diverging minimizers.
A new AI optimization method uses energy-conserving dynamics inspired by Born-Infeld theory.
problem Optimization challenges in non-convex loss functions and machine learning tasks.
method Discretization of Born-Infeld dynamics for energy-conserving Hamiltonian optimization.
result The method avoids high local minima and outperforms traditional methods in shallow valleys.
EOMR improves regression accuracy in chaotic systems.
problem Learning relevant feature subsets and subspaces in nonstationary, nonlinear regression problems.
method Jointly identifies subsets and subspaces of relevant features using Entropy-Optimal Manifold Regression (EOMR).
result EOMR achieves significantly lower root mean squared prediction errors compared to state-of-the-art AI and ML tools.
Bayesian framework detects symmetries in chaotic dynamical systems.
problem Detecting symmetries in chaotic attractors for insights into dynamical system structure.
method Bayesian framework using Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances.
result Bayesian framework accurately recovers symmetries under high noise and small sample sizes.
EOMR improves regression accuracy in chaotic systems by identifying relevant feature subsets and subspaces.
problem Learning relevant feature subsets and subspaces in nonstationary and nonlinear regression problems.
method Jointly identifies relevant feature subsets and subspaces using Entropy-Optimal Manifold Regression (EOMR).
result EOMR achieves orders of magnitude better prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art AI and ML tools.
Three training regimes found for scale-invariant neural networks on the sphere.
problem Training scale-invariant neural networks on the sphere with varying effective learning rate.
method Investigated three regimes of training: convergence, chaotic equilibrium, and divergence.
result Discovered three distinct training regimes with unique characteristics.
Entropy estimation of symbol sequencescond-mat.stat-mech
We discuss algorithms for estimating the Shannon entropy h of finite symbol sequences with long range correlations. In particular, we consider algorithms which estimate h from the code lengths produced by some compression algorithm. Our interest is in describing their convergence with sequence length, assuming no limit…
Study chaotic behavior in homeomorphism groups of countable products of spaces.
problem Investigate chaotic behavior in homeomorphism groups of countable products of various metrizable topological spaces.
method Construct numerous examples of chaotic groups of homeomorphisms of countable products of spaces.
result New chaotic groups of homeomorphisms of countable products of various metrizable topological spaces are discovered.
TSSC images enhance chaotic signal classification using ConvNets.
problem Classifying chaotic signals accurately and robustly.
method Triad State Space Construction (TSSC) for image encoding, Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) for classification.
result TSSC-ConvNet achieves high accuracy and robustness in chaotic signal classification.
This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic reg…
Neural networks can model chaos efficiently by becoming geometrically chaotic.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of how neural networks learn chaos.
method Employed a geometric perspective to show neural networks can model chaotic dynamics.
result Neural networks can reconstruct strange attractors and accurately predict local divergence rates.
Physics-informed ESNs improve chaotic system prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting chaotic systems while adhering to physical laws.
method Integrates physics constraints into ESN training through an additional loss function.
result Physics-informed ESNs predict chaotic systems with a 2 Lyapunov time improvement.
MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.
problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.
Spatio-temporal RBF neural networks improve chaotic time series prediction.
problem Predicting chaotic time series due to their dynamic nature.
method Proposes an spatio-temporal extension of RBF neural networks.
result Spatio-temporal RBF outperforms standard RBF in chaotic time series prediction.
Deep neural networks classify chaotic time series.
problem Classifying chaotic time series with high accuracy.
method Train neural networks on simpler systems to classify more complex ones.
result Convolutional neural networks outperform other networks for time series classification.
Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with long horizons using limited data.
method Sparse, time-dependent data inputs into reservoir computing.
result Achieves arbitrarily long prediction horizons for chaotic systems.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
New risk models use chaotic attractors to predict extreme events.
problem Predicting Black Swan events in financial markets.
method Combining heavy-tailed priors with chaotic dynamics (Lorenz and Rossler systems).
result Models generate volatility clustering, fat tails, and extreme events.
Panda predicts chaotic systems without retraining, showing emergent properties.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with small errors.
method Trained on a synthetic dataset of chaotic dynamical systems using evolutionary algorithms.
result Panda predicts unseen chaotic systems with zero-shot learning.
Hybrid model combines machine learning and knowledge-based forecasting for chaotic systems.
problem Improving accuracy of chaotic system forecasts using limited knowledge.
method Combining machine learning with a knowledge-based model.
result Hybrid model predicts longer into the future than either component alone.
Bayesian method combines data assimilation, machine learning, and EM for chaotic dynamics.
problem Reconstructing high-dimensional chaotic dynamics from noisy, partial observations over long time series.
method Bayesian inference using expectation-maximization and coordinate descent.
result Successfully tested on two chaotic models, estimating model, state trajectory, and model error statistics.
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …
Noise titration benchmarks time series forecasting models rigorously.
problem Evaluation of time series forecasting models is often flawed due to lack of interventionist methods.
method Interventionist benchmarking using Gaussian noise titration of dynamical systems.
result Fern model outperforms state-of-the-art models in non-stationary conditions.
The geometry of oscillatory integrals on manifolds with intermediate symmetry.
problem Classification of curvature conditions in Sogge's program.
method Proposing a classification of curvature conditions.
result No manifolds satisfy the chaotic curvature condition of order 1.
A ML model accurately replicates chaotic dynamics across various parameters.
problem Replicating chaotic characteristics of non-linear dynamics using machine learning.
method A ML model trained to predict one-step-ahead states from historic states captures bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents universally.
result Variational quantum circuit outperforms classical models in reproducing long-term chaotic characteristics.
RNNs struggle with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients, but we found a way to optimize training.
problem Challenging training of RNNs with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients.
method Relating loss gradients to Lyapunov spectrum to optimize training on chaotic data.
result RNNs with chaotic dynamics always have diverging gradients, while stable ones have bounded gradients.
Investigates chaotic financial time series with monthly contributions and devaluation.
problem Analyzing chaotic behavior in financial processes with piecewise contributions and negative interest rates.
method Examines a financial process with monthly contributions and devaluation, showing dichotomy in behavior.
result Financial time series exhibit either periodic sequences or Cantor set of ω-limit points, with chaotic behavior at points of a Cantor attractor.
Long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systemsmath.DS
This paper proves long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
problem Ensuring long-term accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for complex dynamical systems.
method Established conditions for long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems.
result Ensemble Kalman filters maintain small estimation error over long time horizons for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
Low-connectivity reservoirs outperform standard designs in chaotic system forecasting.
problem Forecasting chaotic systems with high accuracy and low computational resources.
method Used Bayesian optimization to find optimal reservoir configurations, focusing on global system climate rather than short-term prediction.
result Optimized reservoirs with very low connectivity perform well in forecasting chaotic systems, challenging existing design heuristics.
Apparently random financial fluctuations often exhibit varying levels of complexity, chaos. Given limited data, predictability of such time series becomes hard to infer. While efficient methods of Lyapunov exponent computation are devised, knowledge about the process driving the dynamics greatly facilitates the complex…
New method learns chaotic dynamics from noisy, partial data.
problem Learning chaotic dynamics from noisy, partially observed data.
method Bayesian formulation, neural-network ODE representation, EM-like procedures, state-of-the-art assimilation schemes.
result Recover and reproduce chaotic dynamics, including Lyapunov exponents.
This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies), during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality Plane. This planar representation allows the discrimination of different stocha…
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
FCOC framework improves financial volatility forecasting.
problem Tackles dual challenges of feature fidelity and model responsiveness in financial volatility forecasting.
method Synergizes fractal feature extraction and dynamic chaotic oscillation processing.
result Demonstrates profound and generalizable impact on S\&P 500 and DJI datasets.
A pairwise clustering approach is applied to the analysis of the Dow Jones index companies, in order to identify similar temporal behavior of the traded stock prices. To this end, the chaotic map clustering algorithm is used, where a map is associated to each company and the correlation coefficients of the financial ti…
ESNs with transfer learning predict long-term chaotic patterns in spatiotemporal dynamical systems.
problem Predicting long-term statistical patterns of spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical systems.
method Echo state networks (ESNs) with transfer learning.
result ESNs with transfer learning accurately predict long-term statistical properties of spatiotemporally chaotic PDEs.
Combining LETKF and RC improves chaotic system prediction from noisy, sparse data.
problem Improving chaotic system prediction from imperfect observations and models.
method Combining LETKF and RC to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems from noisy and sparsely distributed observations.
result The proposed method using LETKF and RC outperforms LETKF in predicting chaotic systems from noisy and sparse observations.
Transfer learning improves chaotic dynamics predictions with less data.
problem Efficiently predicting chaotic dynamics with limited data.
method Transfer learning for nonlinear dynamics, optimizing transfer rate and leveraging small-scale turbulence universality.
result Significantly more accurate inference of chaotic dynamics achieved.