A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study classifies policy announcements' impact on stock market volatility.
Central banks play a key role in promoting sustainable finance.
Unified framework deciphers global central bank communications.
Examines how central bank policies affect stock markets and asset prices.
Central bank optimizes bailout cash injection to limit defaults.
We extend in a minimal way the stylized model introduced in in "Tipping Points in Macroeconomic Agent Based Models" [JEDC 50, 29-61 (2015)], with the aim of investigating the role and efficacy of monetary policy of a `Central Bank' that sets the interest rate such as to steer the economy towards a prescribed inflation …
Algorithmic stablecoins optimize monetary policy to balance price stability.
Agents buy and sell services. All services are of equal quality. Buyers choose sellers at random. Monetary and fiscal policies are imposed by a central bank and a central government. Credit is supplied by a commercial banking system. Propensities to buy, sell, and lend depend on account balances, interest rates, tax ra…
We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the central bank, the bond market liquidity, inflation and growth expectations play an imp…
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
Tabular Q-learning outperforms advanced RL methods in monetary policy.
This study aims to identify the leading of inflation indicators of monetary policy in DRC. The results reveal that the most relevant inflation indicators usually come from the monetary origin than the real sector. Variance decomposition analyzes place in the foreground the rate of exchange, the money supply and the pub…
Develops a statistical model for SOFR term structure in incomplete markets.
We argue that a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) can be an effect tool for macroeconomic stabilization. We first discuss how implementing negative rates on reserves held at a central bank does not pose any theoretical difficulty, with a reduction in rates operating in exactly the same way when rates are positive or…
We present a broad agenda for meaningful banking regulation reform aiming the creation of evolutive competitive environment to maximize the effectiveness of international financial system through the introduction of fair competition process among the banks in free market capitalism. We assume that the international fin…
Bailouts in financial networks are hard to optimize due to NP-hardness.
Machine learning models predict housing prices using macroeconomic factors.
In the wake of the still ongoing global financial crisis, bank interdependencies have come into focus in trying to assess linkages among banks and systemic risk. To date, such analysis has largely been based on numerical data. By contrast, this study attempts to gain further insight into bank interconnections by tappin…
Central bank strategy to maintain currency exchange rate within limits.
Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.
Paper studies central bank's strategy to control systemic risk in interbank system.
We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We describe this situation…
Study finds strict collection policies improve portfolio quality of microfinance banks.
We propose a simple model of inter-bank borrowing and lending where the evolution of the log-monetary reserves of banks is described by a system of diffusion processes coupled through their drifts in such a way that stability of the system depends on the rate of inter-bank borrowing and lending. Systemic risk is ch…
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
The independence of Central Banks is shown to be a myth.
Develops a framework for synthetic banking microdata evaluation.
We analyze the influence and interactions of 60 largest world banks for 195 world countries using the reduced Google matrix algorithm for the English Wikipedia network with 5 416 537 articles. While the top asset rank positions are taken by the banks of China, with China Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at the f…
We model the default contagion process in a large heterogeneous financial network under the interventions of a regulator (a central bank) with only partial information which is a more realistic setting than most current literature. We provide the analytical results for the asymptotic optimal intervention policies and t…
There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999), Svensson (1999) and Woodford (2003). In this paper we extend the standard optimal monet…
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
Financial contagion from liquidity shocks has being recently ascribed as a prominent driver of systemic risk in interbank lending markets. Building on standard compartment models used in epidemics, in this work we develop an EDB (Exposed-Distressed-Bankrupted) model for the dynamics of liquidity shocks reverberation be…
Study predicts firm defaults using machine learning on Italian credit data.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
New models analyze how ECB's unconventional policies affect stock market volatility.
On June 26th, 2004, Central bank governors and the heads of bank supervisory authorities in the Group of Ten (G10) countries issued a press release and endorsed the publication of "International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework", the new capital adequacy framework commonly k…
This paper contains a feasibility study of deep neural networks for the classification of Euro banknotes with respect to requirements of central banks on the ATM and high speed sorting industry. Instead of concentrating on the accuracy for a large number of classes as in the famous ImageNet Challenge we focus thus on c…
Commercial banks and other depository institutions in some countries are required to hold in reserve against deposits made by their customers at their Central Bank or Federal Reserve. Although some countries have been eliminated it, this requirement is useful as one of many Central Bank's regulation made to control rat…
Optimizes loan recovery timing by forecasting cash flows.
This paper explores IT governance for CBDC adoption in financial markets.
We explain a persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market and suggest ECB policy change.
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
Examines various types of cryptocurrencies and their economic properties.
A modern version of Monetary Circuit Theory with a particular emphasis on stochastic underpinning mechanisms is developed. It is explained how money is created by the banking system as a whole and by individual banks. The role of central banks as system stabilizers and liquidity providers is elucidated. It is shown how…
Proposes a new model to simulate interbank market liquidity risk.
This paper analyzes how banking risks spread through sentiment and policy shocks.
Effective risk control must make a tradeoff between the microprudential risk of exogenous shocks to individual institutions and the macroprudential risks caused by their systemic interactions. We investigate a simple dynamical model for understanding this tradeoff, consisting of a bank with a leverage target and an unl…
Study assesses impact of CBDC on financial stability in dual-currency economy.