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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,738 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for censored regression

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…

2019-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…

2020-01-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian active learning method improved for censored regression data.

problem Challenges in estimating BALD for censored regression data.
method Derived entropy and mutual information for censored distributions, developed C\mathcal{C}-BALD objective, proposed novel modelling approach.
result Demonstrated C\mathcal{C}-BALD outperforms other methods in censored regression.

DAERNN models censored data using neural networks with data augmentation.

problem Handling censored data in expectile regression.
method Data augmentation based Expectile Regression Neural Networks (ERNNs).
result DAERNN outperforms existing censored ERNNs methods and achieves comparable predictive performance to fully observed data.

The paper forecasts corporate distress using a novel MIDAS logistic regression method.

problem Forecasting corporate distress with right-censored data, high-dimensional predictors, and mixed-frequency data.
method The paper introduces a novel high-dimensional censored MIDAS logistic regression method that handles censoring through inverse probability weighting and employs a sparse-group penalty for mixed-frequency predictors.
result The method achieves accurate estimation and superior performance in predicting financial distress of Chinese-listed firms.

Develops HCQRF for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects on censored responses with high-dimensional variables.
method Hybrid Censored Quantile Regression Forest (HCQRF) combining random forests and censored quantile regression.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness and stability of HCQRF through simulation studies and real-world application.

Paper proposes inference method for high-dimensional censored quantile regression.

problem Identifying heterogeneous effects of high-dimensional genetic biomarkers on survival outcomes.
method Combines low-dimensional model estimates based on multi-sample splittings and variable selection.
result Proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically follows a Gaussian process.

This paper introduces a multi-output Gaussian process for censored data.

problem Modeling bias in censored data using correlations between multiple outputs.
method Heteroscedastic multi-output Gaussian process with input-dependent noise and variational inference.
result The model better estimates the true process under complex censoring dynamics.

Bayesian Tobit model tackles high-dimensional censored data with Horseshoe prior.

problem High-dimensional censored data with unknown bounds.
method Horseshoe prior for shrinkage, data augmentation for Gibbs sampling.
result Established posterior consistency and concentration rates for Bayesian Tobit models.

Boosting methods for interval-censored data improve predictive accuracy in survival analysis.

problem Handling interval-censored data in survival analysis and time-to-event studies.
method Nonparametric boosting methods using censoring unbiased transformations and functional gradient descent.
result Effective boosting methods for regression and classification with interval-censored data, offering robust performance.

The paper proposes a new method to forecast winning prices in real-time bidding.

problem Accurately forecasting winning prices in real-time bidding with limited data.
method The paper introduces a heteroscedastic fully parametric censored regression approach and a mixture density censored network.
result The proposed method significantly improves winning price forecasting compared to existing methods.

Paper develops a neural network method for censored survival analysis.

problem Distribution-free quantile prediction for censored survival data.
method Develops a novel neural network algorithm for simultaneous quantile optimization.
result The algorithm produces better calibrated quantiles on real datasets.

auton-survival simplifies survival analysis for healthcare data.

problem Handling censored time-to-event data in healthcare.
method Open-source package for survival regression, adjustment, counterfactual estimation, phenotyping, and treatment effects.
result Demonstrates auton-survival's ability to support complex health and epidemiological questions.

SurvFM-RMST converts survival outcomes into pseudo-observation targets for tabular models.

problem Right-censored follow-up prevents direct use of survival labels in tabular patient data.
method SurvFM-RMST framework that converts survival outcomes into jackknife pseudo-observation targets for restricted mean survival time.
result SurvFM-RMST accurately recovered restricted event-free time in simulations and outperformed naive targets in static datasets.

Proposes isotonic regression for calibrating Deep Cox models' survival probabilities.

problem Poor calibration of Deep Cox models' survival probabilities.
method Isotonic regression for post hoc calibration of Deep Cox models.
result Establishes favorable theoretical guarantees and demonstrates empirical effectiveness.

We develop a unified approach for classification and regression support vector machines for data subject to right censoring. We provide finite sample bounds on the generalization error of the algorithm, prove risk consistency for a wide class of probability measures, and study the associated learning rates. We apply th…

2012-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a deep learning framework for interval-censored survival data.

problem Lack of deep learning methods for interval-censored survival data.
method Partially linear transformation models with DNN approximations for nonlinear effects.
result DNN estimator achieves minimax-optimal convergence and superior performance.

Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. T…

2018-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

New method estimates survival risks without strong proportional hazard assumptions.

problem Time-to-event prediction with censored data and competing risks.
method Jointly learns deep nonlinear representations for fully parametric survival regression.
result Demonstrates benefits in real-world datasets with different censoring levels.

Estimates conditional distribution function using neural networks for censored and uncensored data.

problem Estimating conditional distribution function for censored and uncensored data.
method Neural network algorithm based on Cox regression with time-dependent covariates, using full likelihood with unconstrained optimization.
result Proposed method yields more accurate estimates than existing methods when model assumptions are violated.

Proposes a new AFT model for nonlinear survival data.

problem Limited ability of classical AFT models to represent nonlinear relationships and handle complex covariate structures.
method Structured nonparametric extension using Kolmogorov--Arnold representations and unified censoring-adjusted losses.
result Method captures nonlinear effects and recovers linear structure when appropriate.

New deep Cox mixture model improves survival analysis performance.

problem Challenges in survival analysis due to censoring and healthcare applications.
method Learning mixtures of Cox regressions with deep neural networks for hazard ratios and non-parametric baseline hazard.
result Our approach outperforms classical and modern survival analysis methods, especially in minority demographics.

The Brier score is commonly used for evaluating probability predictions. In survival analysis, with right-censored observations of the event times, this score can be weighted by the inverse probability of censoring (IPCW) to retain its original interpretation. It is common practice to estimate the censoring distributio…

2019-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

BENK estimates treatment effects with neural kernels for censored data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored time-to-event data.
method Proposes a method using the Beran estimator with neural kernels for survival functions.
result Shows improved accuracy compared to existing methods in various scenarios.

New method for discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks.

problem Discrete failure time data in survival analysis.
method Proposes a new estimation procedure for discrete-time survival analysis with competing events.
result Offers advantages over existing procedures and integrates regularized regression methods.

New method uses neural networks for estimating survival functions from censored data.

problem Estimating conditional survival functions from censored time-to-event data with complex predictors.
method Generative adversarial networks leveraging self-consistent equations, without parametric assumptions.
result Established the convergence rate of the proposed estimator.

Improved estimation of hedge fund tail risks using a novel model.

problem Estimation inefficiencies and need for manual threshold selection in extreme value regression models.
method Extended tail regression model with automatic threshold selection and artificial censoring.
result Significant link between tail risks and factors like equity momentum and financial stability index.

Study improves risk evaluation timing with right-censored reporting delays.

problem Improving risk evaluation under short observation windows due to administrative censoring.
method Jointly models parametric hazards for event and reporting processes, uses Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm, and proposes transfer-learning procedure.
result Improves accuracy of timely risk evaluation under administrative censoring.

The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.

problem Estimating treatment effectiveness for specific events in the presence of alternative event types.
method Meta-learners combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling and elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling.
result Compared meta-learners in multiple simulation settings, providing practical guidance for model selection.