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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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66132198264 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for causality inference

Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.

problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.

Deep learning aids causal inference in complex settings.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in non-linear, time-varying, and encoded confounders.
method Intuitive introduction to deep learning and causal inference, focusing on observational data.
result Maximizes accessibility to causal inference through deep learning.

Two environments are enough to infer causal graphs and counterfactuals.

problem Inferring causal relations from multiple environments, especially for nonlinear mechanisms.
method Using structural causal models and the invariance principle, the study shows that only two auxiliary environments are sufficient for causal graph inference and counterfactual inference.
result Two auxiliary environments are sufficient for identifying causal graphs and counterfactuals.

ABCI infers causal models and queries simultaneously using Bayesian active learning.

problem Inference of causal models and effects in a two-stage process is inefficient and unnatural.
method Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI) using Gaussian processes for sequentially designing experiments.
result ABCI is more data-efficient and accurate in learning causal queries from fewer samples.

Variational Causal Networks approximate Bayesian inference over causal structures.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal structure inference from finite data.
method Parametric variational family over DAGs, using Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for tractable learning.
result Approximation of the true posterior over DAGs is demonstrated to be good.

Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.

problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.

New models infer causal effects from graph-based time-series data.

problem Inferring causal effects from graph-based relational time-series data.
method Proposes causal inference models leveraging graph topology and time-series data.
result Relational time-series causal inference models accurately estimate local causal effects of individual nodes.

Blog post comparing neural network methods for causal inference.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal inference.
method Developed and compared a fully connected neural network implementation of Bayesian Causal Forest.
result Improvements in performance in simulation settings.

RealCause provides a realistic benchmark for causal inference.

problem Lack of a reliable benchmark for comparing causal effect estimators.
method Flexible generative models to create a benchmark that is both ground-truth and realistic.
result Evaluation of over 1500 causal estimators provides evidence for choosing hyperparameters using predictive metrics.

Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.

problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.

Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

ParKCa combines multiple causal inference methods to infer new causes from known and unknown factors.

problem Causal inference from observational data when randomized experiments are not feasible.
method ParKCa uses a stacking approach to combine results from multiple causal inference methods.
result ParKCa infers more causes than existing methods in real-world and simulated datasets.

CInA method uses attention to improve causal inference.

problem Challenges in causal inference, especially in complex tasks.
method CInA method utilizes self-supervised causal learning with multiple unlabeled datasets and transformer-type architecture.
result CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets.

Novel framework combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.

problem Challenges in identifying causal relationships from observational data.
method Combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.
result Yields computational efficiency and less biased ATT estimates.

Interpretable model for Granger causality using neural networks.

problem Inferring Granger causality in complex dynamical systems.
method Extension of self-explaining neural networks for multivariate Granger causality.
result Framework performs on par with baseline methods and better at inferring interaction signs.

Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.

problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.

Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.

problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.

Develops geometric causal models for causal inference from dependent data.

problem Causal inference from structured, dependent data (e.g., spatial, network, molecular).
method Geometric causal models (GCMs) exploiting symmetries of data generating process, combining group theory, ergodic theory, and Bayesian inference.
result Establishes identification and estimation of causal effects from dependent data.

Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.

problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.

Proposes a method to infer causal effects from incomplete data using latent confounders.

problem Missing data complicates causal inference, especially for non-linear models.
method Uses variational autoencoders to learn latent confounders and incorporate missing values.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method, especially for non-linear models.

Enhanced framework selects features for unbiased causal inference.

problem Unbiased estimation of causal quantities in causal inference.
method Three-stage computational framework balancing treatment and non-treatment variables.
result Significantly reduces bias and variance in estimating causal quantities.

New method infers causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.

problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
method Proposes a new class of restricted SCM with time-varying filters and stationary noise, leveraging asymmetry from nonstationarity.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed methodology on various synthetic and real datasets.

The paper proposes a method to infer causal directions from discrete data using distance correlation.

problem Inferring causal directions from discrete data.
method Comparing distance correlation between P(X)P(X) and P(YX)P(Y|X) with P(Y)P(Y) and P(XY)P(X|Y) to infer causal direction.
result The proposed method can infer causal directions from discrete data.

Causal Inference over Mixtures models cyclic, evolving causal processes using a mixture of DAGs.

problem Cycles, time evolution, and population differences in causal processes are challenging for traditional graphical models.
method Causal Inference over Mixtures uses a mixture of directed cyclic graphs (DAGs) to model longitudinal data and infer causal relations.
result Improved performance compared to prior approaches in inferring causal relations from a mixture of DAGs.

A new algorithm infers causal networks from data using topological thresholds.

problem Inferring causal networks from data.
method Two methods for determining topological thresholds: one to leave no disconnected nodes, the other to find a causal large connected component.
result The novel algorithm is faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm.

Examines parallels between human subjects and texts for causal inference.

problem Ambiguity and fallacies in causal inference using textual data.
method Two strategies: shifting from traits to perceptions and from concepts to parts.
result Highlights the importance of clarifying fundamental concepts.