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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for causal-effect modeling

Identifies causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent variables.

problem Identifying causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent confounders.
method Complete graphical characterization and efficient algorithms for certification. RICA adaptation for estimation.
result Efficient algorithms and RICA adaptation for estimating causal effects.

Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.

problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.

Study develops method for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.

problem Lack of methods for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
method Develops a method independent of data generating models for continuous variable interventions.
result Preserves identifiability of data and applies to any generating models.

Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.

problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.

NICE model estimates causal effects for image treatments.

problem Challenges in causal effect estimation for multi-dimensional treatments.
method Proposes NICE model for image treatments, incorporating rich multidimensional information.
result NICE significantly outperforms existing models in estimating causal effects for image treatments.

Estimates causal effects in Gaussian Linear SCMs with finite data.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Centralized Gaussian Linear SCMs (CGL-SCMs) and EM-based estimation algorithm.
result Learned CGL-SCM parameters accurately recover causal distributions from finite observational samples.

Efficient algorithm for identifying causal effects in linear models.

problem Determining causal effects from observational data under latent confounding.
method Symbolic computation and efficient algorithm for finding identifying formulas.
result Proves the existence of identifying formulas of a specified degree in quasi-polynomial time.

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data assuming that the causal structure is known. To make the problem more challengin…

2014-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study tackles causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from entangled treatment data.

problem Estimating causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from observational data with entangled treatments.
method NEAT method that models treatment assignment mechanism and mitigates confounding biases.
result NEAT method effectively estimates causal effects from entangled treatment data.

Estimates causal effects from patient trajectories using DeepACE model.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data in medical practice.
method DeepACE model using iterative G-computation formula and sequential targeting procedure.
result DeepACE achieves state-of-the-art performance in estimating time-varying ACEs.

Paper identifies and estimates CAPCEs in continuous treatment settings.

problem Estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatments.
method Instrumental variable approach to identify CAPCEs under weaker conditions.
result Developed three families of CAPCE estimators with statistical properties analyzed.

The paper identifies causal effects in latent variable models using higher-order cumulants.

problem Challenges in identifying causal effects in latent variable models with latent confounders.
method Using higher-order cumulants, the paper addresses two challenging setups: a single proxy variable and underspecified instrumental variables.
result Causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument.

The paper shows how instrumental variables can help identify sparse causal effects in linear models.

problem Identifying sparse causal effects in linear models with limited instruments.
method Conditions and graphical criteria for identifiability, spaceIV estimator.
result Causal effects can be identified from observed distributions with sparse effects and limited instruments.

CausalPFN automates causal effect estimation from observational data.

problem Manual selection of causal effect estimators is time-consuming and requires domain expertise.
method CausalPFN is a transformer that learns to infer causal effects from raw observations without task-specific adjustments.
result CausalPFN achieves superior performance on various benchmarks and real-world tasks.

Method estimates heterogeneous causal effects on networks using orthogonal learning.

problem Challenges in estimating causal effects on networks due to treatment effects on both treated and neighbors, and network homophily.
method Two-stage orthogonal learning framework: first stage uses graph neural networks for nuisance components, second stage residualizes and interpretable attention-based model for causal effects.
result Improves heterogeneous effect estimation and supports interpretable analyses.

Proposes a new Alzheimer's disease simulator for causal effect estimation.

problem Lack of suitable benchmarks for evaluating causal effect estimators in real-world healthcare data.
method Developed a simulator of Alzheimer's disease using ADNI dataset, incorporating various parameters to model complexities.
result Compared estimators of average and conditional treatment effects using the new simulator.

New method identifies valid IVs for bi-directional MR with invalid instruments.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with invalid instruments and unmeasured confounding.
method Theoretical investigation and cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets.
result Theoretical demonstration and experimental validation of the method's effectiveness.

Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affec…

2017-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

BICauseTree improves causal effect estimation by identifying clusters and balancing treatment allocation.

problem Improving interpretability and transparency in causal effect models from observational data.
method Hierarchical bias-driven stratification using decision trees with a customized objective function.
result BICauseTree provides interpretable causal effect estimation and is comparable to existing methods.

Paper tackles causal effect estimation in observational data with hidden variables.

problem Estimating causal effects in observational data with hidden confounders.
method Developed a theorem for local search to find superset of adjustment variables, proposing a data-driven algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm produces more accurate causal effect estimates than existing methods.

Identifies causal effects in partially directed acyclic graphs with observed variables.

problem Identifying conditional causal effects in graphs with background knowledge and observed variables.
method Three results: identification formula, do calculus generalization, and algorithm completeness.
result Complete algorithm for identifying conditional effects in MPDAGs.

A new method selects covariates for causal effect estimation without strong assumptions.

problem Estimating causal effects without global causal structure learning and strong assumptions.
method Local covariate selection method that avoids pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions.
result The method achieves accurate causal effect estimation with improved computational efficiency.

The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.

problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.

Study estimates heterogeneous principal causal effects with binary treatments and intermediate variables.

problem Estimating subgroup effects within strata defined by potential values of an intermediate variable.
method Proposes a framework for estimating and forming confidence intervals for heterogeneous principal causal effects under principal ignorability assumption. Develops several estimators with varying robustness properties.
result Established large-sample theory and analyzed bias contributions of each approach.

Optimizes causal effects on unknown graphs using Causal Entropy Optimization.

problem Optimizing causal effects in unknown causal graphs.
method Causal Entropy Optimization (CEO) framework that generalizes Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO). Incorporates causal structure uncertainty in surrogate models and intervention selection.
result CEO achieves faster convergence to global optimum compared to CBO and improves upon sequential structure learning.

Develops a method to identify causal effects in linear models with latent variables.

problem Identifying causal effects in models with latent variables that are not independent.
method A novel graphical criterion and an integer linear program algorithm.
result Sufficient condition for identifying causal effects by rational formulas in the covariance matrix.

Estimates network causal effects considering contagion and latent confounding.

problem Determining if correlations in network studies are due to contagion or latent confounding.
method Segregated graph representation, likelihood ratio tests, network causal effect estimation strategies.
result Proposes methods to estimate network causal effects under full interference scenarios.

New method estimates causal effects of multiple versions of treatment.

problem Ignoring multiple versions of treatment leads to biased causal effect estimates.
method Mixture-of-Experts framework for estimating version-specific causal effects.
result Effective method for estimating causal effects of latent versions.

Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.

problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.

New method removes interference bias in causal models.

problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.

Method estimates causal effects from incremental data, overcoming missing data challenges.

problem Estimating causal effects from non-stationary, incrementally available observational data.
method Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning
result Method achieves continual causal effect estimation without compromising original data.

Survey of deep causal models for industrial applications.

problem Estimating causal effects using deep learning.
method Deep causal models map covariates to a representation space and use objective functions for unbiased counterfactual data estimation.
result Comprehensive overview of deep causal models with industry applications.

Bayesian method estimates causal effects with proxy networks.

problem Estimating causal effects with only proxy measurements of a latent interference network.
method Structural causal model with Block Gibbs sampler and Locally Informed Proposals.
result Accurately estimates causal effects even with noisy proxy networks.

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment models in a selection-on-observables framework by modifying the Causal Fore…

2018-12-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes unbiased learning for recommendation causal effects.

problem Estimating the causal effect of recommendation when the ground truth is unobservable.
method Inverse propensity scoring technique to construct unbiased estimators, followed by empirical risk minimization with propensity capping.
result The proposed method outperforms other biased learning methods in various settings.

Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.

problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.