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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3773110146 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for causal relevance

Paper proposes learning causal graphs with only relevant variables.

problem Discovering causal relationships in large-scale graphs often includes irrelevant variables.
method Developed NSCSL algorithm to learn necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG).
result NSCSL algorithm identifies relevant causal features for specific outcomes.

Pattern recognition in neuroimaging distinguishes between two types of models: encoding- and decoding models. This distinction is based on the insight that brain state features, that are found to be relevant in an experimental paradigm, carry a different meaning in encoding- than in decoding models. In this paper, we a…

2015-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes Causal Loss to improve machine learning models' causal inference.

problem Machine learning algorithms often fail to capture causal relationships when data is inconsistent.
method Introduces Causal Loss, a model-agnostic loss function that enhances interventional capabilities.
result Causal Loss improves non-causal associative models to have interventional capabilities.

The Frame Problem (FP) is a puzzle in philosophy of mind and epistemology, articulated by the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy as follows: "How do we account for our apparent ability to make decisions on the basis only of what is relevant to an ongoing situation without having explicitly to consider all that is not …

2017-01-26abs ↗pdf ↗

ZNet learns instrumental representations from covariates for causal inference.

problem Lack of valid instruments in observational studies.
method Representation learning approach that constructs instrumental representations from observed covariates.
result ZNet enables IV-based estimation without explicit instruments.

Based on the recent work \cite{PII} we put forward a new type of transformation for Lorentzian manifolds characterized by mapping every causal future-directed vector onto a causal future-directed vector. The set of all such transformations, which we call causal symmetries, has the structure of a submonoid which contain…

2003-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines avoid spurious associations.

problem Learning algorithms for rule-based models are vulnerable to spurious associations.
method Building on invariant causal prediction, propose Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines for conjunctions/disjunctions of binary-valued rules.
result The method can identify causal parents of a variable of interest in polynomial time.

Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.

problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.

b-LOAD extends local causal discovery with prior knowledge, improving causal effect estimation.

problem Local causal discovery struggles in data-scarce settings due to uncertainty and incomplete neighborhoods.
method b-LOAD incorporates prior knowledge directly into local structure learning, using Meek's rules to refine discovery.
result b-LOAD refines the admissible equivalence class and enlarges identifiable causal queries, improving causal effect estimation.

DEDACT breaks down feature importance into direct and associative components.

problem Lack of clear distinction between direct and associative feature importance.
method DEDACT framework to decompose direct and associative importance measures.
result Provides insight into sources of prediction-relevant information and feature pathways.

Develops a sparsity-inducing Bayesian Causal Forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data with varying degrees of sparsity.
method Introduces a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests with additional priors to adjust covariate weights.
result Improves adaptability to sparse data generating processes and uncovering moderating factors driving heterogeneity.

A new method uses LLMs to discover causal pathways that affect fairness in machine learning.

problem Discovering fairness-relevant causal pathways in the presence of noise and confounding.
method Hybrid LLM-guided causal discovery framework combining active learning and dynamic scoring.
result LLM-guided methods, including the proposed active, dynamically scored variant, outperform baselines in recovering fairness-relevant structure under noisy conditions.

This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.

problem Identifying and characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Using only marginal central moments of potential outcomes, the paper identifies and bounds central moments of individual causal effects.
result Identification and bounding of central moments of ICE using marginal moments of POs.

New method learns unbiased treatment representations from structured high-dimensional data.

problem Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured treatments.
method Contrastive learning approach to learn unbiased treatment representations.
result The method identifies causal factors and discards non-causal ones, leading to unbiased causal effect estimates.

We introduce a model for causal structure learning from multivariate functional data, even when graphs have cycles.

problem Discovering causal relationships from multivariate functional data with cycles.
method Functional linear structural equation model with a low-dimensional causal embedded space.
result The proposed model is causally identifiable under standard assumptions.

We demonstrate the breakdown of several fundamentals of Lorentzian causality theory in low regularity. Most notably, chronological futures (defined naturally using locally Lipschitz curves) may be non-open, and may differ from the corresponding sets defined via piecewise C1C^1-curves. By refining the notion of a causal…

2019-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

We discuss promising recent contributions on quantifying feature relevance using Shapley values, where we observed some confusion on which probability distribution is the right one for dropped features. We argue that the confusion is based on not carefully distinguishing between observational and interventional conditi…

2019-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on forecasting methods and their causal implications.

problem Understanding the difference between statistical and causal risks in forecasting models.
method Introduce causal learning theory for forecasting, obtain uniform convergence bounds for VAR models.
result First theoretical guarantees for causal generalization in time-series forecasting.

Survey of deep causal models for industrial applications.

problem Estimating causal effects using deep learning.
method Deep causal models map covariates to a representation space and use objective functions for unbiased counterfactual data estimation.
result Comprehensive overview of deep causal models with industry applications.

The problem of using observed correlations to infer causal relations is relevant to a wide variety of scientific disciplines. Yet given correlations between just two classical variables, it is impossible to determine whether they arose from a causal influence of one on the other or a common cause influencing both, unle…

2014-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.

problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.

We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.

problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.

Unified approach to causal representation learning using invariance principles.

problem Identifying latent causal variables from high-dimensional observations.
method Guiding identification of causal variables with invariance principles rather than causal hierarchies.
result Unified method that mixes causal and non-causal assumptions improves treatment effect estimation.

GO-CBED optimizes experiments for specific causal queries, improving efficiency.

problem Efficiently infer causal relationships with limited resources.
method Goal-oriented Bayesian framework that maximizes expected information gain on user-specified causal quantities.
result GO-CBED outperforms existing methods in various causal tasks, especially with limited budgets.

The paper develops methods to bound causal effects using Partial Ancestral Graphs.

problem Bounding causal effects from observational data when true causal diagrams are unknown.
method Proposes a method using Partial Ancestral Graphs to derive bounds on causal effects from observational data.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method with synthetic and real data examples.

A new algorithm infers causal networks from data using topological thresholds.

problem Inferring causal networks from data.
method Two methods for determining topological thresholds: one to leave no disconnected nodes, the other to find a causal large connected component.
result The novel algorithm is faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm.

COTA learns abstraction maps from data without complete SCM knowledge.

problem Learning causally consistent representations at different resolutions.
method Multi-marginal Optimal Transport (OT) with do-calculus constraints and interventional cost.
result COTA outperforms non-causal and independent formulations on synthetic and real-world problems.

Bayesian approach learns causal concepts from diverse social surveys.

problem Inferring causal concepts from heterogeneous data with sparse changes.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Model infers meaningful causal concepts and plausible relations.

Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.

problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.

Paper proposes a modified fairness constraint to address shortcomings of counterfactual fairness.

problem Counterfactual fairness is not a necessary condition for algorithmic fairness.
method Analyzed hypothetical scenario and explicated discrimination to develop causal relevance fairness.
result Causal relevance fairness is a modified constraint that circumvents shortcomings of counterfactual fairness.

New method uncovers hidden causal connections in multivariate point process networks.

problem Unobserved hidden variables confound causal discovery in high-dimensional point process networks.
method Proposes a deconfounding procedure to estimate causal interactions among observed nodes with unknown unobserved processes.
result The method accurately identifies causal interactions among observed processes, even with hidden variables.