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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for causal mechanism shifts

Identifies shifts in causal mechanisms between related datasets using ANMs.

problem Estimating the full causal structure from data is challenging; focus on identifying shifts in causal mechanisms.
method Assumes nonlinear additive noise models, uses Jacobian of score function for mixture distribution to identify shifts.
result Shows applicability of the approach on synthetic and real-world data.

Proposes MSS to identify causal structure from heterogeneous environments.

problem Distribution shifts between environments violate i.i.d. data assumption.
method Sparse mechanism shift hypothesis, score-based approach.
result Identifies entire causal structure with high probability.

New framework improves model robustness by focusing on stable relations across environments.

problem Standard supervised learning fails under data distribution shift.
method Gradient-based learning framework derived from the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM).
result Models generalize well to unseen scenarios, ignoring unstable relations.

REx tackles distributional shift by reducing risk differences across domains.

problem Tackling distributional shift when transferring machine learning systems to real-world applications.
method Risk Extrapolation (REx) assumes training domains represent test-time variations and uses extrapolated domains to minimize risk variance.
result REx reduces sensitivity to extreme distributional shifts, including causal and anti-causal inputs.

The paper tackles policy learning in dynamic environments using causal methods.

problem Existing reinforcement learning algorithms assume static mechanisms, but real-world systems often have changing mechanisms.
method The paper introduces multi-environment contextual bandits and policy invariance to handle environmental shifts.
result An optimal invariant policy is guaranteed to generalize across environments under suitable assumptions.

The paper explores how to extrapolate from limited data points using causal mechanisms.

problem Handling distribution shifts with limited target samples.
method Formulates the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model embodying the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms, and identifies conditions for identification.
result Theoretical understanding and practical methods for extrapolation without requiring an on-support target distribution.

DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.

problem Inferring causal direction between continuous and discrete variables from observational data.
method Density Ratio-based Causal Discovery (DRCD) method.
result DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.

ISL improves causal structure learning with invariant structures across different environments.

problem Improving causal structure discovery for better generalization and explainability.
method ISL splits data into environments, learns invariant structures, and selects optimal classifiers based on graph structures.
result ISL accurately discovers causal structures and outperforms alternative methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Generative Intervention Models predict perturbation effects without knowing the underlying mechanisms.

problem Predicting perturbation effects when the mechanisms are unknown.
method Generative Intervention Models (GIM) that map perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a causal model.
result GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions and infer underlying perturbation mechanisms.

Method identifies shifts leading to large model performance differences.

problem Detecting shifts in distribution that affect model performance.
method Parametric changes in causal mechanisms define robustness sets; worst-case optimization problem approximated as non-convex quadratic.
result Second-order approximation of worst-case loss for small shifts, leading to efficient algorithms.

Generates counterfactuals in target domain from source domain observations.

problem Cross-domain learning with domain shifts and lack of parallel datasets.
method Unsupervised, Neural Causal Models, Joint Causal Graphs, Effect-Intrinsic vs Domain-Intrinsic Variables.
result Framework generates counterfactuals that closely match ground truth.

MetaCI uses meta-learning to generalize causal inference across heterogeneous populations.

problem Generalizing causal inference from multiple homogeneous subgroups to a heterogeneous population.
method MetaCI employs meta-learning to handle data distribution shifts and concept drifts.
result MetaCI outperforms random initialization and other methods in counterfactual inference.

Survey on combining causal models with deep generative models for improved explainability and fairness.

problem Deep generative models lack explainability, induce spurious correlations, and poor out-of-distribution extrapolation.
method Structural causal models (SCMs) combined with deep generative models to address shortcomings.
result Causal generative models offer robustness, fairness, and interpretability.

New method identifies optimal subset of stable information to transfer for better model generalization.

problem Non-reliability of machine learning models to dataset shifts.
method Causal minimax learning approach to identify optimal subset of stable information.
result Proposed algorithm efficiently searches for optimal subset with minimal worst-case risk.

CDFM aims to unify causal discovery across diverse datasets.

problem Fragmented, test-driven causal discovery approaches struggle with modern data heterogeneity.
method CDFM is a unified, general-purpose framework using a variational decomposition of causal mechanisms.
result CDFM outperforms traditional algorithms across diverse datasets.

This thesis tackles causality in machine learning, improving OOD generalization and robustness.

problem Machine learning struggles with OOD generalization and robustness due to lack of causality modeling.
method Exploits the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM) to ensure conditional distribution invariance under distribution shifts.
result Demonstrates how incorporating causality can enhance machine learning's OOD generalization, interpretability, and robustness.

AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.

problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.

We identify which latent factors change between environments in linear causal models.

problem Identify latent factors that change between environments in linear causal models with fewer than dd interventions.
method Propose a method to identify shifted nodes in a smaller number of environments with coarser interventions.
result It is possible to identify the set of shifted nodes under mild assumptions.

Study highlights robustness issues in healthcare diagnostic models due to distribution shifts.

problem Robustness of diagnostic models in healthcare is compromised by distribution shifts.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation studies to understand and mitigate shortcuts learned by models.
result Ignoring covariates or using invariant learning approaches leads to non-robust predictors.

SYNC learns time-aware causal representations to improve model generalization in evolving domains.

problem Spurious correlations and shortcut learning in existing EDG methods hinder model generalization.
method SYNC integrates dynamic causal factors and causal mechanism drifts into a sequential VAE framework.
result SYNC achieves superior temporal generalization performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.

problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.

CTRF combines logged data and randomized experiments for robust prediction.

problem Robust prediction models to handle distributional shifts between training and testing data.
method CTRF uses existing training data and a small amount of randomized experiment data to train a robust model.
result CTRF produces robust predictions and outperforms baseline methods in the presence of feature shifts.

The ability to learn and act in novel situations is still a prerogative of animate intelligence, as current machine learning methods mostly fail when moving beyond the standard i.i.d. setting. What is the reason for this discrepancy? Most machine learning tasks are anti-causal, i.e., we infer causes (labels) from effec…

2018-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Domain adaptation framework identifies latent variables for target distribution identifiability.

problem Unsupervised domain adaptation without identifiable joint distribution of features and labels.
method Formulated latent variable model with invariant and changing components, constrained domain shift to influence only changing components.
result Joint distribution of data and labels in target domain is identifiable under mild conditions.

The paper shows how causal knowledge improves model robustness.

problem Improving model robustness in the face of unseen domains.
method Utilizes Structural Causal Models (SCM) to guide model selection based on likelihood of the SCM given predictions and input variables.
result Identifies more robust models that generalize better to unseen domains.

Proposes a method to improve treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings.

problem Improving treatment policies in data-scarce clinical settings with unobserved confounding.
method Uses a causal mechanism to model the underlying generative process and augments counterfactual trajectories with source domain priors.
result Significantly improves treatment policy performance in a simulated sepsis treatment task.

CICME estimates common and domain-specific causal mechanisms from multi-sensor data.

problem Inferring causal mechanisms from heterogeneous multi-sensor data across multiple domains.
method Three-step approach using Causal Transfer Learning (CTL).
result CICME reliably detects domain-invariant causal mechanisms and guides individual domain causal mechanism estimation.

The paper tackles matching a desired mean in causal systems through shift interventions.

problem Matching a desired mean in causal systems.
method Defining Markov equivalence classes, proposing active learning strategies, deriving lower bounds.
result Proposed active learning strategies require fewer interventions than previous approaches, especially for certain graph classes.

New framework learns disentangled causal representations from observed labels.

problem Learning meaningful disentangled causal representations from observed data.
method ICM-VAE framework using flow-based diffeomorphic functions and causal disentanglement prior.
result Induces highly disentangled causal factors and improves robustness.

Bayesian approach learns causal concepts from diverse social surveys.

problem Inferring causal concepts from heterogeneous data with sparse changes.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Model infers meaningful causal concepts and plausible relations.

New smart contract mechanisms evade traditional AML systems by decoupling transaction roles.

problem Current AML systems fail to track economic value migration in composable smart contracts.
method Introduce PEB separation and state-mediated value migration to demonstrate how traditional tracing fails.
result Transfer-layer observation is incomplete and causally ambiguous in composable smart contracts.

Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.

problem Uncertainty in identifying causal mechanisms from observational data.
method Introduces a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max, trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance.
result Trained mechanisms yield lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effects.

New framework for interpreting disaggregated fairness evaluations using causal models.

problem Misinterpretation of disaggregated fairness evaluations due to data representativeness and selection bias.
method Causal graphical models to characterize fairness properties and metric stability under different data generating processes.
result Disaggregated evaluations are unreliable without explicit assumptions regarding bias mechanisms.

Proposes FSM-IRL to learn invariant network representations considering feature and structural shifts.

problem Spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics lead to OOD generalization issues in geographic networks.
method Introduces FSM-IRL model that accounts for feature and structural distribution shifts using causal attention and reweighting.
result Demonstrates strong learning capabilities on geographic and social network datasets in OOD scenarios.

New method handles uncertainty in causal effect estimation for better decision-making.

problem Handling uncertainty in causal effect estimation, especially in high-dimensional data and covariate shift.
method Integrates uncertainty estimation into neural network methods for individual-level causal estimates.
result Uncertainty-aware methods improve decision-making by alerting when predictions are not reliable.

Proposes DRIG for robust predictions using noise interventions.

problem Developing robust prediction models against distribution shifts.
method Distributional Robustness via Invariant Gradients (DRIG) exploiting general noise interventions.
result DRIG yields robust predictions among a data-dependent class of distribution shifts.

This research tackles sample complexity in causal graph recovery with temporal heterogeneity.

problem Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data with temporal heterogeneity.
method Integrates time-series dynamics and multi-environment heterogeneity to constrain the problem, enabling a rigorous analysis of statistical limits.
result Unified necessary identifiability conditions and explicit information-theoretic bounds quantify the sample complexity under different noise distributions.