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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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316394125 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for causal decision-making

Chronological Causal Bandits (CCB) tackles dynamic causal decision-making.

problem Dynamic causal decision-making in a system where rewards depend on past interventions.
method Introduces a new MAB problem (Chronological Causal Bandit) where rewards are influenced by a dynamic causal model.
result Early findings show the CCB can transfer information between sequential MABs.

Extends expected value framework for cost-sensitive causal decision-making.

problem Optimizing operational decision-making with cost-sensitive causal classification.
method Introduces a cost-sensitive decision boundary based on estimated individual treatment effects, positive outcome probability, and cost parameters.
result Effective in maximizing expected causal profit, outperforming cost-insensitive ranking approach.

Improving cancer treatment decisions requires considering causal effects, not just model accuracy.

problem Cancer outcome prediction models may cause harm when used for treatment decisions.
method Explains the importance of considering causal effects in model validation and provides guidelines.
result Building and validating models that are useful for decision making requires considering causal effects.

New method estimates stochastic intervention effects in decision-making domains.

problem Current causal inference methods are limited to deterministic treatment, unable to handle stochastic policies.
method Developed a new stochastic propensity score and stochastic intervention effect estimator (SIE) with a customized genetic algorithm (Ge-SIO).
result Empirical study shows significant performance improvement over state-of-the-art baselines.

Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.

problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.

New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.

problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.

Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus…

2017-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

New formalism for decision making combines causal structures with MDPs, improving reinforcement learning performance.

problem Sequential decision making with causal knowledge to improve performance.
method Causal Markov Decision Processes (C-MDPs) and C-UCBVI algorithm exploiting causal structure.
result C-UCBVI achieves an ildeO(HSZT) ilde{O}(HS\sqrt{ZT}) regret bound, independent of actions.

The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.

problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.

A framework for causal classification using uplift and causal heterogeneity methods.

problem Predicting the effect of interventions on different individuals from data.
method Causal classification framework using off-the-shelf supervised methods.
result Framework works for causal classification and uplift modelling, competitive with other methods.

A new algorithm tackles delayed combinatorial semi-bandit with causal relations.

problem Optimizing decisions in a non-stationary environment with delayed and causally related rewards.
method Formalized as a non-stationary delayed combinatorial semi-bandit problem, the approach models causal relations with a directed graph in a stationary structural equation model. The agent learns these relations from delayed feedback to optimize decisions.
result Proved a regret bound for the proposed algorithm's performance.

Bayesian Supervised Causal Clustering identifies patient subgroups for personalized decision-making.

problem Finding patient subgroups with similar characteristics for personalized decision-making.
method Bayesian Supervised Causal Clustering (BSCC) that identifies homogenous subgroups based on treatment effects.
result BSCC identifies subgroups with similar covariate profiles and treatment effects.

New approach to off-policy evaluation connects causal graph to policy effects.

problem Evaluating policies using observational data from different policies.
method Formalizes off-policy evaluation within a causal graph framework.
result Identifies specific causal estimands and highlights necessary experimental data.

Paper proposes Bayesian TMLE methods for causal effect uncertainty quantification.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal effect estimation.
method Three Bayesian TMLE approaches for binary and continuous outcomes.
result BN-TMLE outperforms classical implementations in small data regimes.

This paper identifies the minimal set of nodes for optimal conditional interventions in causal bandits.

problem Optimizing decision-making in causal bandits with conditional interventions.
method Graphical characterization and efficient algorithm to identify the minimal set of nodes.
result The proposed algorithm significantly prunes the search space and accelerates convergence rates.

Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.

problem Estimating effects of many related treatments in observational data.
method Customized ridge regression to reduce noise and MSE.
result Significantly reduces MSE for individual sub-treatments while allowing reconstruction of aggregated treatment effects.

New method handles uncertainty in causal effect estimation for better decision-making.

problem Handling uncertainty in causal effect estimation, especially in high-dimensional data and covariate shift.
method Integrates uncertainty estimation into neural network methods for individual-level causal estimates.
result Uncertainty-aware methods improve decision-making by alerting when predictions are not reliable.

Review of methods enabling causal predictions under hypothetical interventions.

problem Need for predicting outcomes under hypothetical interventions in decision making.
method Systematic review of methods using causal inference for prediction models.
result Identified 13 methods for causal inference from observational data.

New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.

problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.

LLM4Causal democratizes causal reasoning via fine-tuned LLMs.

problem Limited capability of LLMs in causal inference and interpretation.
method Fine-tuning an open-source LLM for causal tasks, proposing datasets for instruction tuning.
result LLM4Causal delivers end-to-end solutions for causal problems and interprets results easily.

MO-CBO optimizes multiple outcomes in causal systems with minimal data.

problem Optimizing multiple outcomes in causal systems with limited data.
method Decomposes MO-CBO into multi-objective optimization tasks and uses relative hypervolume improvement for sequential intervention balancing.
result MO-CBO outperforms traditional multi-objective Bayesian optimization in causal settings.

New method learns unbiased treatment representations from structured high-dimensional data.

problem Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured treatments.
method Contrastive learning approach to learn unbiased treatment representations.
result The method identifies causal factors and discards non-causal ones, leading to unbiased causal effect estimates.

Novel framework combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.

problem Challenges in identifying causal relationships from observational data.
method Combines tree-based discretization and ILP matching for causal inference.
result Yields computational efficiency and less biased ATT estimates.

Bayesian method optimizes interventions for causal discovery.

problem Active interventions are needed for causal discovery when observational data is insufficient.
method Bayesian optimization-based approach using observational data and pre-experimental evaluation of interventions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through various experiments.

ISAHP discovers instance-level causal structures in event sequences.

problem Discovering fine-grained causal relationships in asynchronous, interdependent event sequences.
method ISAHP, a novel deep learning framework using self-attention mechanism.
result ISAHP meets Granger causality requirements and discovers complex causal structures.

Resolves spurious correlations in causal models via intervention design.

problem Spurious correlations lead to incorrect causal models in reinforcement learning environments.
method Proposes a method to design interventions that improve causal models by incentivizing agents to find errors.
result Experimental results show improved causal models compared to baselines.