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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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3876114152 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for causal curves

Causality violations are typically seen as unrealistic and undesirable features of a physical model. The following points out three reasons why causality violations, which Bonnor and Steadman identified even in solutions to the Einstein equation referring to ordinary laboratory situations, are not necessarily undesirab…

2006-09-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We demonstrate the breakdown of several fundamentals of Lorentzian causality theory in low regularity. Most notably, chronological futures (defined naturally using locally Lipschitz curves) may be non-open, and may differ from the corresponding sets defined via piecewise C1C^1-curves. By refining the notion of a causal…

2019-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

The Abstract Boundary singularity theorem was first proven by Ashley and Scott. It links the existence of incomplete causal geodesics in strongly causal, maximally extended spacetimes to the existence of Abstract Boundary essential singularities, i.e., non-removable singular boundary points. We give two generalizations…

2015-08-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers examine various causal structures for spacetimes with continuous metrics.

problem Comparing causal structures for spacetimes with continuous but not necessarily smooth metrics.
method Examined three key properties: push-up lemma, openness of chronological futures, and existence of limit causal curves.
result Spacetimes with continuous metrics do not always satisfy all three key properties.

We show that the definition of global hyperbolicity in terms of the compactness of the causal diamonds and non-total imprisonment can be extended to spacetimes with continuous metrics, while retaining all of the equivalences to other notions of global hyperbolicity. In fact, global hyperbolicity is equivalent to the co…

2014-12-07abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop a new approach to the existence of time functions on Lorentzian manifolds, based on Conley's work regarding Lyapunov functions for dynamical systems. We recover Hawking's result that a stably causal admits a time function through a more general result giving the existence of a continuous function that is non…

2016-03-22abs ↗pdf ↗

ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.

problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.

Because no closed timelike curve (CTC) on a Lorentzian manifold can be deformed to a point, any such manifold containing a CTC must have a topological feature, to be called a timelike wormhole, that prevents the CTC from being deformed to a point. If all wormholes have horizons, which typically seems to be the case in …

2006-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Combines structured inference and targeted learning to tackle causal inference challenges.

problem Treatment assignment heterogeneity and lack of counterfactual data.
method Factorizes joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors; applies regularizer derived from influence curve.
result TVAE demonstrates competitive and state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.

Proposes a method to assess unobserved confounding effects in causal inference.

problem Assessing unobserved confounding in causal inference studies.
method Copula-based normalizing flows with sensitivity parameter ρρ.
result Estimates average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.

Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.

problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.

DeepCausalMMM models marketing impacts using deep learning and causal inference.

problem Traditional MMM approaches struggle with non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns.
method Combines deep learning, causal inference, and marketing science. Uses GRUs for temporal patterns and DAG structure for channel dependencies.
result Captures non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns in marketing impacts.

It is shown that if MM is a strongly causal free of naked singularities space-time, then its causal structure is completely characterized by a partial order in the space of skies defined by means of a class non-negative Legendrian isotopies. It is also proved that such partial order is determined by the class of futur…

2014-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Defines new metrics for Lorentzian spaces and their convergence.

problem Defining metrics for Lorentzian spaces and their convergence.
method Abstract approach to Lorentzian Gromov-Hausdorff distance and convergence, defining bounded Lorentzian-metric spaces, and proving stability under GH limits.
result GH limits of Lorentzian-metric spaces are isometric and homeomorphic.

Irrespective of local conditions imposed on the metric, any extendible spacetime U has a maximal extension containing no closed causal curves outside the chronological past of U. We prove this fact and interpret it as impossibility (in classical general relativity) of the time machines, insofar as the latter are define…

2001-11-17abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a version of Aubry-Mather theory for the length functional of causal curves in compact Lorentzian manifolds. Results include the existence of maximal invariant measures, calibrations and calibrated curves. We prove two versions of the Mather's graph theorem. A class of examples, the Lorentzian Hedlund exam…

2011-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes ρρ-GNF for sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding.

problem Sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding in observational studies.
method Copulas and normalizing flows to estimate average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.
result Develops ρcurveρ_{curve} to provide bounds for ACE and identify confounding strength required to nullify ACE.

Paper develops methods to estimate derivative of dose-response curve for continuous treatments.

problem Estimating the derivative of the dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
method Doubly robust (DR) inference method using kernel smoothing, bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators.
result Proposes novel bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators for continuous treatments.

No closed timelike geodesics in Kerr spacetimes, proving absence of closed causal geodesics.

problem Proving the nonexistence of closed timelike geodesics in Kerr spacetimes.
method Analyzing the Kerr-star spacetime, excluding closed null geodesics and proving the nonexistence of closed timelike geodesics.
result No closed timelike geodesics in Kerr spacetimes.

Recent results on the maximization of the charged-particle action I in a globally hyperbolic spacetime are discussed and generalized. We focus on the maximization of I over a given causal homotopy class C of curves connecting two causally related events x_0 <= x_1. Action I is proved to admit a maximum on C, and also o…

2005-05-05abs ↗pdf ↗

New method distinguishes cause from effect using causal velocity.

problem Inferring causal direction from bivariate data.
method Parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of causal velocity, using tools from measure transport.
result Method extends beyond known model classes and requires no assumptions on noise distributions.

The study of low regularity (in-)extendibility of Lorentzian manifolds is motivated by the question whether a given solution to the Einstein equations can be extended (or is maximal) as a weak solution. In this paper we show that a timelike complete and globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifold is C0C^0-inextendible. For…

2017-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

LxCIM metric improves binary classification performance evaluation.

problem Evaluation metrics for binary classification are often not invariant to local class exchange.
method Proposes LxCIM, a rank-based metric invariant to local class exchange.
result LxCIM addresses limitations of existing metrics like AUROC.

Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.

problem Misrepresentation of seismic effects across diverse landscapes.
method Causal Bayesian network with Gaussian Processes and normalizing flows.
result Achieves up to 35.2% AUC improvement over existing methods.

Let (M,g)(M,g) be a time oriented Lorentzian manifold and dd the Lorentzian distance on MM. The function τ(q):=supp<qd(p,q)τ(q):=\sup_{p< q} d(p,q) is the cosmological time function of MM, where as usual p<qp< q means that pp is in the causal past of qq. This function is called regular iff τ(q)<τ(q) < \infty for all qq and also $τ\to 0…

1997-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

In this study, we deal with the local structure of curves and surfaces immersed in a pseudo-isotropic space I_{p}^{3} that is a particular Cayley-Klein space. We provide the formulas of curvature, torsion and Frenet trihedron in order for spacelike and timelike curves. The causal character of all admissible surfaces in…

2016-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.

problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.

Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.

problem Inferring causal effects of continuous treatments when hidden confounders are present.
method Novel methodology to bound average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment effects.
result Method gives tighter coverage of true dose-response curve than existing methods.

Develops adaptive framework for estimating survival effects with censoring.

problem Estimating causal effects in survival data with censoring.
method Derives semiparametric efficiency bound, proposes efficiency-optimal allocation policy, and develops Adaptive Survival Estimator (ASE).
result ASE achieves asymptotic normality via martingale central limit theorem and demonstrates efficiency gains over uniform randomization.

Developed a flexible Bayesian g-formula for causal survival analysis with time-dependent confounding.

problem Estimating causal survival curves in longitudinal observational studies with time-varying treatments and confounding.
method Incorporated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the g-formula to model time-evolving generative components and mitigate bias due to model misspecification.
result Demonstrated improved empirical performance and practical utility of the proposed method through simulations and real-world data analysis.

Minimal TIP and TIF found in compact spacetimes, impacting spacetime splitting.

problem Understanding the global structure of spacetimes with compact Cauchy surfaces.
method Analysis of Terminal Indecomposable Past (TIP) and Future (TIF) sets in spacetimes with compact Cauchy surfaces.
result In a spacetime with compact Cauchy surfaces, there is always at least one minimal TIP and one minimal TIF.

We discuss contact invariant structures on the space of solutions of a third-order ordinary differential equation. Associated to any third-order differential equation modulo contact transformations, Chern introduced a degenerate conformal Lorentzian metric on the space of 2-jets of functions of one variable. When the W…

2010-01-01abs ↗pdf ↗