CausalRegNet generates accurate data for gene perturbation experiments, improving CSL methods.
problem Assessing and selecting causal structure learning methods in gene perturbation experiments.
method CausalRegNet, a multiplicative effect structural causal model, generates accurate observational and interventional data.
result CausalRegNet generates more accurate distributions and scales better than current simulation frameworks.
POSCMs extend SCMs for causal modeling with latent contexts.
problem Causal modeling with latent contexts and endogenous mechanisms.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold-Sprecher edge-functional decomposition for explicit parametrization.
result Identifiability of structure and mechanisms under latent context.
CausalCOMRL improves RL task representations by integrating causal relationships, enhancing generalizability.
problem Spurious correlations in context-based offline meta-reinforcement learning.
method CausalCOMRL integrates causal representation learning to uncover and incorporate causal relationships among task components.
result CausalCOMRL achieves better performance on meta-reinforcement learning benchmarks.
Introduces CStrees for modeling context-specific causal models from observational and interventional data.
problem Modeling context-specific causal relationships from mixed data types.
method Introduces CStrees with a novel factorization criterion and graphical characterization for context-specific conditional independence models.
result Derives a graphical characterization of model equivalence for observational CStrees and extends it to CStree models under context-specific interventions.
The paper reviews MARL and its causal challenges, advocating for a 'causality first' approach.
problem Challenges in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and lack of theoretical guarantees for emergent behavior.
method Discussion of how causal methods can improve safety, interpretability, and robustness in MARL.
result Causal methods can provide strong theoretical guarantees for emergent behavior in MARL.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
This paper establishes the existence of observable footprints that reveal the "causal dispositions" of the object categories appearing in collections of images. We achieve this goal in two steps. First, we take a learning approach to observational causal discovery, and build a classifier that achieves state-of-the-art …
Unified framework for ICL in causal and masked models.
problem Understanding ICL in masked language models and comparing it to causal models.
method Developed a statistical learning framework representing context by empirical measure and predicting using context and query.
result Upper bounds for masked and autoregressive objectives under Wasserstein-type regularity conditions.
Transformers learn causal structure through gradient descent on self-attention mechanisms.
problem Understanding how transformers learn causal structure during training.
method In-context learning task and simplified two-layer transformer model.
result Gradient descent on a simplified transformer learns to encode latent causal graphs.
New model predicts drug effects across various cell types using causal imputation.
problem Predict drug effects across different cell types given limited data.
method Introduces a novel SCM-based model class with latent factor structure and uses Synthetic Interventions estimator.
result Method outperforms other matrix completion approaches in drug repurposing dataset.
New approach learns causally disentangled latent structures in generative models.
problem Fundamental tension between expressivity and structure in latent structure learning.
method Added a context module to an arbitrarily complex model to learn causally disentangled concepts.
result Causally disentangled representations can be composed for out-of-distribution generation.
The study explores how Transformers predict the next token in a sequence.
problem Understanding the mechanism behind Transformers' autoregressive learning ability.
method Exploring the approximation ability of Transformers for next-token prediction through specific instances and a causal kernel descent method.
result Transformer models can learn context-dependent functions f for next-token prediction based on past and current observations. The gold standard for discovering causal relations is by means of experimentation. Over the last decades, alternative methods have been proposed that can infer causal relations between variables from certain statistical patterns in purely observational data. We introduce Joint Causal Inference (JCI), a novel approach t…
Timer-XL predicts multidimensional time series using a unified Transformer approach.
problem Unified time series forecasting across various tasks and contexts.
method Decoder-only Transformers with a universal TimeAttention mechanism and deft position embedding.
result State-of-the-art performance across multiple forecasting benchmarks.
Framework detects anomalies in industrial processes using deep learning.
problem Detect anomalies in complex industrial processes.
method Causal-based framework with unsupervised deep learning.
result Successfully validated abstract contexts of blast furnace assets.
The paper connects counterfactual fairness to robust prediction and group fairness using causal context.
problem The challenge of ensuring fairness in AI systems when counterfactuals cannot be directly observed.
method Using causal context to bridge counterfactual fairness, robust prediction, and group fairness.
result Counterfactual fairness is equivalent to group fairness metrics in specific contexts.
We describe, in the general setting of closed cone fields, the set of causal functions which can be approximated by smooth Lyapunov. We derive several consequences on causality theory. Dans le contexte général des champs de cones fermés, on décrit l'ensemble des fonctions causales qui peuvent être approchées par des fo…
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
problem Maximizing target variables in structural causal models.
method Learn exogenous variable distributions to improve surrogate models' fidelity.
result Improves approximation of structural causal models and broader application scenarios.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
New method speeds up causal sensitivity analysis.
problem Bounding causal effects in unobserved confounding.
method Amortized approach using prior-data fitted networks.
result Orders of magnitude faster computation.
Paper proposes a new method for demand forecasting in pricing contexts.
problem Demand forecasting in pricing contexts, especially in a profit optimal manner.
method Combines Double Machine Learning for causal inference and transformer-based forecasting models.
result Our method outperforms other forecasting methods in off-policy settings.
Example of spacetime with causal bubbling, splitting into timelike and spacelike parts.
problem Understanding causal bubbling in spacetimes.
method Example of a globally hyperbolic spacetime with a continuous metric, splitting orthogonally into timelike and spacelike parts.
result The synthetic timelike curvature-dimension (TCD) condition does not prevent causal bubbling.
Paper tackles transfer RL under unobserved context, developing methods to reduce bias.
problem Transfer RL with unobserved contextual information leading to biased models.
method Develops causal bounds on transition and reward functions using demonstrator's data.
result Proposes Q learning and UCB-Q learning algorithms that converge to true value function without bias.
Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information for an (potentially causal) effect of the treatment A(t) on the outcome Y(t), in…
The paper explores Wiener-Granger causality and its computational enhancements.
problem Analyzing causal relationships between time series data.
method Detailed overview of Granger causality, historical development, and computational advancements.
result Enhanced application of Granger causality in various fields.
AP-Calculus offers a new framework for causal inference in Bayesian networks.
problem Causal inference in Bayesian networks with complex architectures.
method Introduces Attribution Projection Calculus (AP-Calculus) to determine causal relationships.
result Proves that for each label, exactly one intermediate node acts as a deconfounder.
New model tackles causal bandits with dependent variables.
problem Understanding reward-maximizing interventions in causal networks with dependent variables.
method Introduces hierarchical causal bandit model with a contextual variable capturing interactions among variables.
result Derives nearly matching regret bounds for binary context in causal bandits with dependent arms.
A framework infers causal direction from symbolic sequences using compression measures.
problem Inferring causal direction from two observed discrete symbolic sequences.
method Lossless compressors for inferring context-free grammars (CFGs) and quantifying compression extent.
result Grammar inferred from one sequence better compresses the other sequence, indicating causal direction.
Transformers can predict new tokens based on any number of context tokens, approximating continuous mappings with fixed resources.
problem Handling an arbitrarily large number of context tokens in transformers.
method Mathematical analysis of transformer's expressivity using Wasserstein distance and continuous mappings.
result Deep transformers are universal and can approximate continuous in-context mappings to arbitrary precision, uniformly over compact token domains.
Proposes causal modeling for intersectional fairness in rankings.
problem Fairness in rankings, especially intersectional fairness.
method Causal modeling approach for intersectional fairness, flexible ranking computation.
result Experimental evaluation shows the approach's effectiveness under different assumptions.
Unified kernel-based methods improve nonlinear causal discovery.
problem Identifying nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables.
method Unified Kernel Principal Component Regression (KPCR) and Gaussian Process score-based model with Smooth Information Criterion.
result Improved performance in time series nonlinear causal discovery.
Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
problem Qualitative changes in causal relationships due to agent actions or environmental tipping points.
method Propose meta-causal states to group causal models based on equivalent qualitative behavior and parameterize specific mechanisms.
result Meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior and disentangled from unlabeled data.
CLEAR learns causal graphs from attention in recommender systems to explain user behavior.
problem Understanding why specific recommendations are made in recommender systems.
method CLEAR learns session-specific causal graphs from attention in pre-trained neural recommenders, addressing latent confounders.
result CLEAR provides counterfactual explanations that are shorter and more effective than naive methods.
Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from observational data, especially for nonstationary time series.
method State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for conditionally stationary time series.
result SDCI can recover underlying causal dependencies with provable identifiability for state-dependent causal structures.
Paper introduces v-CMC linking causality and utility.
problem Linking causality and utility for value theory.
method Developed a new causal independence principle (v-CMC) and proved its equivalence.
result Equivalence of local, global, and decomposition versions of v-CMC.
This paper introduces a new task to better understand Transformers in quantitative contexts.
problem Understanding Transformers in high-stakes quantitative and scientific applications.
method Introduces a novel contextual counting task and analyzes it with causal and non-causal Transformer architectures.
result Causal attention is better suited for the contextual counting task, and no positional embeddings lead to the best accuracy.
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
New framework estimates demand responses across multiple contexts with limited price variation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous linear price-response functions across multiple contexts with limited price variation and confounding.
method Meta-learning framework that identifies conditional mean of task-specific causal demand parameters given a subset of task-specific observables.
result Improved recovery of demand responses relative to standard transfer-learning baselines.
Novel method uses information theory to measure causal influences during transient neural events.
problem Characterizing network interactions during transient neural events.
method Structural Causal Models, Information Theory, Transfer Entropy, Dynamic Causal Strength, Relative Dynamic Causal Strength.
result Introduced a novel measure, relative Dynamic Causal Strength, with theoretical and empirical support.
Express improves causal attention guarantees for language models.
problem Improving causal attention guarantees for language models.
method Introducing Express, a tool for converting non-causal attention into causal with matching guarantees.
result Express improves causal attention guarantees to log^(3/2)(n)/s with minimal memory and compression overhead.
LLM4Causal democratizes causal reasoning via fine-tuned LLMs.
problem Limited capability of LLMs in causal inference and interpretation.
method Fine-tuning an open-source LLM for causal tasks, proposing datasets for instruction tuning.
result LLM4Causal delivers end-to-end solutions for causal problems and interprets results easily.
Unified theory for causal inference using various methods.
problem Estimating causal effects in ATE estimation.
method Riesz regression, covariate balancing, DRE, TMLE, matching estimator.
result Unified theory integrating multiple methods for ATE estimation.
We introduce a new family of graphical models that consists of graphs with possibly directed, undirected and bidirected edges but without directed cycles. We show that these models are suitable for representing causal models with additive error terms. We provide a set of sufficient graphical criteria for the identifica…
A simple guide to understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
problem Understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
method Formalizing hierarchical causality in terms of actors and agents, with three key structures.
result The system requires three additional structures: causation classes, aggregation operators, and discrete event-time maps.
FairTrade uses variational inference to create fair predictions in causal models.
problem Creating fair predictions in machine learning models with causal reasoning.
method FairTrade uses variational inference to account for unobserved confounders and integrates fairness constraints on causal paths.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of FairTrade in creating fair predictions in both simulated and real-world datasets.
The paper tackles three financial issues: time resolution, nonstationarity, and latent factors.
problem Three fundamental issues in financial data: time resolution, nonstationarity, and latent factors.
method A causal perspective to reexamine and solve these issues.
result Provides systematic solutions to financial data issues.
This work explores the idea of a causal contextual multi-armed bandit approach to automated marketing, where we estimate and optimize the causal (incremental) effects. Focusing on causal effect leads to better return on investment (ROI) by targeting only the persuadable customers who wouldn't have taken the action orga…
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.