Causal ML predicts treatment outcomes, aiding personalized medicine.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects for personalized medicine.
method Flexible, data-driven methods using causal inference with clinical trial and real-world data.
result Causal ML allows for estimating individualized treatment effects.
Study assesses hyperparameter tuning for causal inference with DML.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for causal inference with DML.
method Empirical simulation study using DML approach.
result Hyperparameter tuning crucial for causal estimation with DML.
Paper proposes mechanism learning to reverse causal inference in ML.
problem Machine learning models learn associational, not causal, relationships.
method Causally weighted Gaussian mixture models (CW-GMMs).
result CW-GMMs can deconfound observational data for reverse causal inference.
Paper bridges AI/ML and causal modeling to reduce bias.
problem Difficulty in combining methods from different assumptions.
method Integrates system dynamics and structural equation modeling.
result Unified mathematical framework for AI/ML and causal modeling.
Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
A new method selects robust features for ML models using causal discovery.
problem Challenges in feature selection for ML models with limited domain knowledge.
method Multidata causal feature selection using PC1 or PCMCI algorithms.
result The method improves model performance and provides interpretable drivers.
Causal ML methods failed to validate their personalized treatment effects in two large trials.
problem Validating causal machine learning methods for personalized treatment effects in precision medicine.
method Assessed 17 mainstream causal heterogeneity ML methods using two large randomized controlled trials.
result None of the ML methods reliably validated their performance, internal or external, showing significant discrepancies between training and test data.
Scoping review of EO-ML methods for causal inference in poverty geography.
problem Lack of thorough documentation and best practices for EO-ML methods in causal analysis.
method Comprehensive scoping review cataloging five principal approaches.
result Detailed protocol for integrating EO data into causal analysis.
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between clinical variables and heart failure.
method Proposes a new computational framework for causal structure discovery (CSD) of mixed-type clinical variables for binary disease outcomes.
result Feature importance from nonlinear classifiers strongly correlates with causal strength of variables, but not differentiating cause and effect.
Predictive models can be used for causal inference with feature selection.
problem Limitations of predictive models in interpreting causal relationships.
method Constrained learning process by selecting features according to Pearl's backdoor adjustment criterion.
result Causal models provide near unbiased effect estimates and better generalization.
Develops a machine learning pipeline for learning causal structure in time-series data.
problem Current ML algorithms fail to learn causal structure in time-series data due to lack of temporal order consideration.
method Integrates machine learning with chaos theory using ChaosFEX feature extractor to learn generalized causal structure.
result Successfully learns generalized causal structure in time-series data.
Optimization algorithm CoCo improves causal inference from diverse data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from data with spurious associations.
method CoCo optimizes for causal inference using environments with invariant causal relationships.
result CoCo provides more accurate causal estimates and predictions.
While machine learning (ML) methods have received a lot of attention in recent years, these methods are primarily for prediction. Empirical researchers conducting policy evaluations are, on the other hand, pre-occupied with causal problems, trying to answer counterfactual questions: what would have happened in the abse…
A review of ML and DL for ecological data analysis.
problem Understanding the strengths and limitations of ML and DL in ecological research.
method Historical overview, algorithm families, differences, universal principles, and emerging trends.
result ML and DL excel in prediction tasks but are still debated for causal inference.
Simulation study evaluates causal ML models under confounding violations.
problem Assessing conditional exchangeability in causal machine learning models.
method Simulation study with varying confounding, sample size, and NCO structures.
result Causal ML models fail to recover true treatment effect heterogeneity under violations of conditional exchangeability.
Machine learning can improve 2SLS first stage predictions, but nonlinear methods often introduce bias.
problem Improving the first stage of 2SLS using machine learning.
method Decomposed bias into three components, investigated through simulation.
result Nonlinear machine learning methods can introduce substantial bias in second-stage estimates.
Commentary on Cheng's fairness comparison between tests and AI.
problem Distinction between equality and equity in fairness.
method Systematic comparison of test fairness and algorithmic fairness.
result Importance of causality in fairness research.
This paper evaluates deferring systems using causal inference.
problem Evaluating the impact of deferring systems on model accuracy is challenging.
method The paper uses a causal inference framework to evaluate deferring systems, distinguishing between scenarios with and without access to human predictions.
result The approach allows identifying causal effects of deferring strategies on predictive accuracy.
Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal parameters. Examples of such parameters include individual regression coefficients, avera…
This research tackles monitoring machine learning algorithms post-deployment, addressing performativity issues.
problem Monitoring machine learning algorithms after deployment, especially when they affect their own data-generating process.
method Uses causal inference techniques to navigate performativity and compares different monitoring criteria and data sources.
result Different monitoring systems have varying operating characteristics and implications for ML monitoring design.
S-DIDML integrates structural DID with ML for causal inference in high-dimensional data.
problem Causal inference in high-dimensional observational panel data with confounding variables.
method Structural identification with high-dimensional estimation, Neyman orthogonality, cross-fitting, causal forests, semi-parametric models.
result Precision in identifying policy-sensitive groups and optimizing resource allocation.
New approach optimizes sales process for B2B businesses.
problem Optimizing the sales process for B2B businesses.
method Causal Predictive Optimization and Generation with three layers: prediction, optimization, and serving.
result Significant wins over legacy systems in LinkedIn implementation.
We introduce the Pricing Engine package to enable the use of Double ML estimation techniques in general panel data settings. Customization allows the user to specify first-stage models, first-stage featurization, second stage treatment selection and second stage causal-modeling. We also introduce a DynamicDML class tha…
CausalBench aims to advance causal learning research with a transparent platform.
problem Lack of unified benchmark datasets, algorithms, metrics, and evaluation interfaces for causal learning.
method Introduces CausalBench, a flexible benchmark framework for causal analysis and machine learning.
result Promotes scientific collaboration, reproducibility, and awareness in causal learning research.
New method explains ML performance gaps without causal knowledge.
problem Understanding why ML algorithms perform differently across domains.
method Nonparametric hierarchical decomposition framework.
result Detailed variable-level explanations for performance gaps.
The paper proposes a method to identify fair features in ML data integration.
problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning data integration.
method Causal interventional fairness, conditional independence tests, group testing.
result The proposed algorithm identifies fair features without biasing the dataset.
New method uses causal thinking to make AI fairer decisions.
problem Designing fair machine learning models that treat equal individuals equally and unequals unequally.
method Rank-preserving interventional distributions and warping method.
result Warping method effectively identifies discriminated individuals and mitigates unfairness.
Machine learning's data-centric philosophy conflicts with natural sciences' standards.
problem Conflict between machine learning's ontology and epistemology and natural sciences' practices.
method Identifying and analyzing contexts where ML can be beneficial or harmful in natural sciences.
result ML can enhance trustworthiness in causal inference but introduces biases in emulation and labeling.
SAGE-FIN detects financial fraud using GNNs and Granger causality.
problem Detecting fraud in financial networks with limited labeled data and lack of explainability.
method Semi-supervised GNN approach with Granger causal explanations.
result SAGE-FIN outperforms on real-world financial network dataset with explainable flagged items.
Examines fairness in ML for health, highlighting its importance and challenges.
problem Ensuring fairness in ML models for health to prevent health disparities.
method Reviews fairness notions in ML for health, including group, individual, and causal-based approaches.
result Discusses the importance and challenges of fairness in health-focused ML applications.
Develops causal framework for fair survival analysis in healthcare.
problem Fairness in survival analysis for high-stakes domains like healthcare.
method Causal framework using graphical models, conditional survival function, and Causal Reduction Theorem.
result Decomposes disparities in survival into direct, indirect, and spurious pathways.
Paper uses ML to improve A/B testing for complex treatment effects.
problem Detecting treatment effects in A/B experiments with complex variables.
method Combines ML models with randomization tests for better detection of treatment effects.
result ML-assisted tests improve detection of complex treatment effects.
We discuss the relevance of the recent Machine Learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the machine learning l…
CRL learns causal representations from unstructured data without supervision.
problem Learning causal models from high-dimensional, unstructured data.
method Combines ML and causality by learning representations in latent variables.
result Identifiability conditions for CRL in different settings.
This paper develops a federated approach to learn Granger causality in interdependent industrial clients.
problem Detecting and quantifying interdependencies in large, complex industrial data.
method Linear state space system framework, federated learning, differential privacy.
result Federated Granger causality learning addresses bandwidth and computational limitations.
This paper explores causal analysis in machine learning for better interpretability.
problem The lack of causality in traditional interpretable machine learning models.
method An overview of causal approaches for interpretable machine learning.
result Causal analysis improves the interpretability of machine learning models.
Losaw improves FI scores by decorrelating features in ML models.
problem Feature correlation distorts feature importance scores in ML models.
method Losaw uses local sample weighting to decorrelate features.
result Losaw consistently improves feature importance scores and prediction accuracy.
Ecologists have long suspected that species are more likely to interact if their traits match in a particular way. For example, a pollination interaction may be more likely if the proportions of a bee's tongue fit a plant's flower shape. Empirical estimates of the importance of trait-matching for determining species in…
Model-agnostic interpretation methods can mislead if not used carefully.
problem Misinterpretation of machine learning models due to improper use of techniques.
method General pitfalls of model-agnostic interpretation methods.
result Many pitfalls exist when using global interpretation techniques for machine learning models.
Survey on principles and challenges of interpretable machine learning.
problem Improving machine learning models' interpretability for high-stakes decisions.
method Identification and analysis of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
result Identification of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
New method interprets deep learning for causal effects, separating prognostic and moderating covariates.
problem Estimating individual causal/treatment effects under confounders.
method Deep counterfactual learning architecture for estimating CATE with interpretable score functions.
result Demonstrated improved interpretability and quantification of uncertainty in CATE estimation.
To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work in counterfactual explanations by addressing the challenge of feasibility of su…
Develops statistical inference for ML-discovered heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects in practical settings.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework, dividing sample into groups, estimating average treatment effects, constructing confidence intervals.
result Valid methodology for estimating and testing heterogeneous treatment effects without relying on ML algorithm properties.
Research tackles ML failure in non-similar data, introducing reliable algorithms.
problem Machine learning models fail in new data distributions.
method Formal definition, assumptions, and simple algorithms for reliable generalization.
result Introduction of algorithms providing more reliable generalization.
Causality-aware methods outperform linear residualization in confounding adjustment for anticausal prediction.
problem Adjusting for confounding in anticausal prediction tasks.
method Causality-aware counterfactual confounding adjustment.
result Causality-aware methods asymptotically outperform linear residualization in predictive performance.
Paper resolves conflicting Shapley value approaches by showing conditional is unsound and marginal is preferred.
problem Conflicting results from conditional and marginal Shapley value approaches when features are correlated.
method Uses causal arguments to show differences arise from assumptions about missing causal information.
result Marginal approach is preferred over conditional due to causal soundness.
Study uses ML and causal analysis to predict student performance factors.
problem Understanding socio-academic and economic factors affecting student performance.
method Employed machine learning techniques and causal analysis on 1,050 student profiles.
result Ridge Regression achieved robust predictions with MAE of 0.12 and MSE of 0.024.
Regularizes ML algorithms for robust multivariate analysis against distribution shifts.
problem Ensuring robustness of multivariate analysis algorithms against distribution shifts.
method Integrates a causal regularisation term into the loss function of multivariate analysis algorithms.
result Demonstrates improved out-of-distribution generalisation with reduced-rank regression and partial least squares.