In this paper, we show that Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) suffer from catastrophic forgetting even when they are trained to approximate a single target distribution. We show that GAN training is a continual learning problem in which the sequence of changing model distributions is the sequence of tasks to the d…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “catastrophic collapse”
NPO method improves LLM unlearning without catastrophic collapse.
problem Efficiently unlearning undesirable data from LLMs without losing model utility.
method Negative Preference Optimization (NPO) method based on alignment.
result NPO-based methods achieve better unlearning results and maintain model utility.
Sudden Trust Collapse in Networked Societiesphysics.soc-ph
Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets trust, panic also begets…
Improved GANs mitigate forgetting and collapse issues.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and mode collapse in GANs.
method Contrastive learning and mutual information maximization.
result Significantly stabilizes GAN training and improves performance.
Jeffreys Flow improves robustness of Boltzmann generators for rare event sampling.
problem Rare events and metastable trapping in sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes.
method Introduces Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework using Parallel Tempering distillation and symmetric Jeffreys divergence to mitigate mode collapse and improve mode coverage.
result Minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and corrects inaccuracies in multi-modal distributions.
We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief abo…
Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.
problem Detecting early signs of tailings dam instability.
method Spectral analysis of satellite InSAR displacement time series data.
result Algorithm detects risk milestones up to 5 months before dam collapse.
A neural network approach to learn Cusp Catastrophe dynamics.
problem Complex behavior and non-convex parameter space in Cusp Catastrophe models.
method Training a deep neural network to learn dynamics without solving generating parameters.
result Demonstrated a neural network approach for the first time in Cusp Catastrophe models.
This paper describes some of the possibilities of artificial neural networks that open up after solving the problem of catastrophic forgetting. A simple model and reinforcement learning applications of existing methods are also proposed.
The paper values reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
problem Valuation of reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
method Compound dynamic contagion process, Esscher transform, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Arbitrage-free premiums for catastrophe stop-loss reinsurance contracts.
Adam optimizer leads to more forgetting in neural networks.
problem Understanding and quantifying catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Comparative analysis of various optimization algorithms and metrics in different learning scenarios.
result Adam optimizer causes more forgetting compared to classical algorithms like SGD.
Bayesian online meta-learning framework tackles catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification problems.
method Bayesian online learning, meta-learning, Laplace approximation, variational inference.
result Framework effectively achieves goal of overcoming catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
Unified Bayesian framework for CAT bond pricing.
problem Uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in CAT bond markets.
method Bayesian framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates.
result Unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia.
Optimizes diversification in catastrophe risk pooling using asymptotic analysis.
problem Maximizing diversification benefit from catastrophic events in insurance pools.
method Asymptotic analysis to solve high-dimensional optimization problem.
result Derives an asymptotically optimal pool that approximates practical optimal pool.
Paper tackles catastrophic overfitting in single-step adversarial training.
problem Catastrophic overfitting leads to sudden drop in robust accuracy.
method Proposes a method to prevent overfitting by using all adversarial examples.
result Demonstrates prevention of catastrophic overfitting and improves robustness.
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond marketq-fin.PR
We introduce a random forest approach to enable spreads' prediction in the primary catastrophe bond market. We investigate whether all information provided to investors in the offering circular prior to a new issuance is equally important in predicting its spread. The whole population of non-life catastrophe bonds issu…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and use stochastic cusp cata…
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
Structure-preserving GANs learn distributions with group symmetry efficiently.
problem Learning distributions with group symmetry efficiently.
method Developed structure-preserving GANs by reducing the discriminator space and designing structured generators.
result Significantly improved sample fidelity and diversity in small data regimes.
Study analyzes catastrophic forgetting in continual learning using teacher-student networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in continuously learning systems.
method Teacher-student learning framework, similarity of input distributions and target functions.
result Network can avoid catastrophic forgetting with small input distribution similarity and large target function similarity.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) suffer from catastrophic forgetting when trained on a sequence of tasks. While this phenomenon was studied in the past, there is only very limited recent research on this phenomenon. We propose a method for determining the contribution of individual parameters in an ANN to catastrophic…
Interpreting the behaviors of Deep Neural Networks (usually considered as a black box) is critical especially when they are now being widely adopted over diverse aspects of human life. Taking the advancements from Explainable Artificial Intelligent, this paper proposes a novel technique called Auto DeepVis to dissect c…
The paper introduces CoCoCat bonds for multi-region natural catastrophes, accounting for complex dependencies.
problem Valuation of multi-region contingent convertible bonds under complex dependencies.
method Developed a model accounting for inter-regional dependencies using change-of-measure techniques.
result Significant impact of inter-regional dependencies on CoCoCat bond pricing.
Optimal Dividend and reinsurance strategy of a Property Insurance Company under Catastrophe Riskq-fin.RM
We consider an optimal control problem of a property insurance company with proportional reinsurance strategy. The insurance business brings in catastrophe risk, such as earthquake and flood. The catastrophe risk could be partly reduced by reinsurance. The management of the company controls the reinsurance rate and div…
A new framework for robust transfer learning that avoids negative transfer in domains with unequal information.
problem Negative transfer in unsupervised domain adaptation, especially when source and target domains have different levels of informativeness.
method Decision-theoretic framework based on Le Cam's theory of statistical experiments, using constructive approximations to replace strict invariance with directional simulability.
result Le Cam Distortion achieves near-perfect frequency estimation and zero source utility loss in various domains, demonstrating superior performance compared to traditional methods.
We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The as…
Paper tackles catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Regularizes training with sketches of Jacobian matrix of past data.
result Proves overcoming catastrophic forgetting for linear and wide neural networks.
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets. Overall, in this work we developed various metrics associated with catastrophic bifurca…
This work tackles catastrophic forgetting in neural networks by mimicking brain's metaplasticity.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks, where new tasks erase previously learned ones.
method Interpreting binarized neural networks as metaplastic systems, adjusting their training technique.
result Training technique reduces catastrophic forgetting without needing previously presented data.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have proven to be a powerful framework for learning to draw samples from complex distributions. However, GANs are also notoriously difficult to train, with mode collapse and oscillations a common problem. We hypothesize that this is at least in part due to the evolution of the gen…
This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application t…
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
problem Rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to shared catastrophic risk.
method Continuous-time preemption game with shared catastrophic externalities, showing suicide region and welfare distortion.
result The suicide region widens as catastrophic risk grows, and two mechanisms can close it.
Synthetic data helps prevent forgetting when learning sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Generate synthetic data via two-step optimisation process using meta-gradients.
result Training on synthetic data prevents forgetting when learning sequentially.
Study optimal dividend strategies for insurers with natural catastrophe claims.
problem Maximizing dividends for a catastrophe insurer over its lifetime.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problem, viscosity solutions, numerical approximation.
result Optimal dividend strategies identified for natural catastrophe insurers.
Catastrophic forgetting/interference is a critical problem for lifelong learning machines, which impedes the agents from maintaining their previously learned knowledge while learning new tasks. Neural networks, in particular, suffer plenty from the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon. Recently there has been several eff…
Developing a climate-aware pricing framework for XL reinsurance and CAT bonds under non-stationary catastrophe risk.
problem Pricing excess-of-loss (XL) reinsurance and catastrophe (CAT) bonds under climate uncertainty.
method Modeling catastrophe arrivals as a Cox process with a temperature-dependent stochastic intensity and aggregate losses following a compound Cox structure.
result Climate dependence materially changes the loss-generation mechanism and affects the valuation of catastrophe-linked contracts.
Theoretical and empirical taxonomy of imbalance in binary classification.
problem Class imbalance degrades binary classification performance.
method Proposed a principled framework based on three scales: imbalance coefficient, sample-dimension ratio, and intrinsic separability. Derived closed-form Bayes errors and analyzed degradation across models.
result The triplet (η, κ, Δ) provides a model-agnostic explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.
OGD proves robustness to Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Learning.
problem Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Learning with deep neural networks.
method Theoretical framework based on Neural Tangent Kernel for OGD.
result First generalization bound for SGD and OGD in Continual Learning.
Proposes a new method to prevent forgetting in neural networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Total absolute signal passing through each connection.
result Simpler and closer to brain processes.
Study finds reinforcement learning performance plateaus due to environmental interference.
problem Catastrophic interference hinders sample efficiency in reinforcement learning.
method Empirical study in ALE, controlled experiments, analysis of prediction errors.
result Interference causes performance plateaus and degrades policies used to reach them.
AI learns to learn sequentially without forgetting.
problem Preventing catastrophic forgetting in machine learning models.
method Meta-learning a neuromodulatory activation-gating function to control selective activation in deep neural networks.
result State-of-the-art continual learning performance with 600 classes (9,000 updates).
Catastrophic-risk-aware reinforcement learning with extreme-value-theory-based policy gradientscs.LG
The paper tackles catastrophic risk in reinforcement learning using extreme value theory.
problem Mitigating catastrophic risk in sequential decision making with limited observations.
method Developed POTPG, a policy gradient algorithm based on extreme value theory.
result POTPG outperforms common benchmarks in numerical experiments.
The study models and values CAT bonds across multiple regions.
problem Valuation of CAT bonds with dependencies across different regions.
method Developed models for independent, proportional, and arbitrary two-dimensional distribution cases of catastrophe losses in different areas. Applied normal approximation and Wang's transform for pricing.
result Illustrated differences in scenarios and performance of the approximation on real data.
Study values and optimizes forestry leases under risk and uncertainty.
problem Valuing and optimizing forestry leases in the presence of catastrophe risk and parameter uncertainty.
method Stochastic bio-economic models, Kalman filter, maximum likelihood estimation, RBSDEs, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Conservative strategy is recommended due to parameter uncertainty.
The study examines insurance demand under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
problem Optimal insurance and investment strategies under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
method Rough volatility model and Hawkes process with power kernel, Functional Ito formula extension.
result Individuals demand more catastrophe insurance when path-dependent effects are considered.
Risk Phase Transitions in Spiked Regression: Alignment Driven Benign and Catastrophic Overfittingstat.ML
The paper examines how spike strengths and alignments affect overfitting in linear regression models.
problem The impact of spike strengths and alignments on overfitting in linear regression models.
method Characterization of generalization error through exact expressions and analysis of spike strengths, aspect ratio, and target alignment.
result Increasing spike strength can lead to catastrophic overfitting before benign overfitting, especially in well-specified aligned problems.
We introduce the Kronecker factored online Laplace approximation for overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks. The method is grounded in a Bayesian online learning framework, where we recursively approximate the posterior after every task with a Gaussian, leading to a quadratic penalty on changes to the we…