Model prices insurance catastrophe derivatives using utility indifference pricing.
problem Price insurance catastrophe derivatives considering both ordinary and catastrophic losses.
method Utility indifference pricing, stochastic optimization, piecewise deterministic Markov processes.
result Numerical study illustrates the pricing model's effectiveness.
The study values a new type of insurance-linked security called CocoCat bonds.
problem Valuing a new type of insurance-linked security called contingent convertible catastrophe bonds.
method Formalized design, derived analytical valuation formulae, used time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process for natural catastrophe losses, and applied exponential change of measure and Girsanov-like transformation.
result CocoCat bond prices are most sensitive to interest rates, conversion fractions, and trigger levels.
A new law of large numbers for single catastrophic risks.
problem Insurance risks from a single catastrophic event.
method Large diversification effect through optimal allocation to many reinsurers or investors.
result Derives a strong law of large numbers for insurance risks.
Optimizes diversification in catastrophe risk pooling using asymptotic analysis.
problem Maximizing diversification benefit from catastrophic events in insurance pools.
method Asymptotic analysis to solve high-dimensional optimization problem.
result Derives an asymptotically optimal pool that approximates practical optimal pool.
Unified Bayesian framework for CAT bond pricing.
problem Uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in CAT bond markets.
method Bayesian framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates.
result Unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia.
The paper introduces CoCoCat bonds for multi-region natural catastrophes, accounting for complex dependencies.
problem Valuation of multi-region contingent convertible bonds under complex dependencies.
method Developed a model accounting for inter-regional dependencies using change-of-measure techniques.
result Significant impact of inter-regional dependencies on CoCoCat bond pricing.
We consider an optimal control problem of a property insurance company with proportional reinsurance strategy. The insurance business brings in catastrophe risk, such as earthquake and flood. The catastrophe risk could be partly reduced by reinsurance. The management of the company controls the reinsurance rate and div…
The study examines insurance demand under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
problem Optimal insurance and investment strategies under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
method Rough volatility model and Hawkes process with power kernel, Functional Ito formula extension.
result Individuals demand more catastrophe insurance when path-dependent effects are considered.
The paper analyzes liquidity in decentralized finance, deriving impact functions and de-pegging risks.
problem Understanding and quantifying market impact and de-pegging risk in decentralized finance.
method Derives market impact functions for optimal-growth liquidity providers, views Constant Product Market Maker as a Carnot engine, and links de-pegging risks to catastrophe bonds.
result New insights into liquidity models and de-pegging risks in decentralized finance.
Paper develops bounds for pricing Catastrophic Mortality Bonds.
problem Challenging task in valuing Catastrophic Mortality Bonds.
method Expresses bond payoff as an Asian put option and uses comonotonic theory.
result Derives model-independent bounds for bond pricing.
OGD proves robustness to Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Learning.
problem Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Learning with deep neural networks.
method Theoretical framework based on Neural Tangent Kernel for OGD.
result First generalization bound for SGD and OGD in Continual Learning.
The paper tackles catastrophic risk in reinforcement learning using extreme value theory.
problem Mitigating catastrophic risk in sequential decision making with limited observations.
method Developed POTPG, a policy gradient algorithm based on extreme value theory.
result POTPG outperforms common benchmarks in numerical experiments.
Study compares ZBDT model to BDT for financial derivatives valuation.
problem Valuation of financial derivatives under catastrophic events.
method Introduced Zero Black-Derman-Toy (ZBDT) model with jumps to zero interest rate.
result ZBDT model better matches financial slowdown risk.
The study models and values CAT bonds across multiple regions.
problem Valuation of CAT bonds with dependencies across different regions.
method Developed models for independent, proportional, and arbitrary two-dimensional distribution cases of catastrophe losses in different areas. Applied normal approximation and Wang's transform for pricing.
result Illustrated differences in scenarios and performance of the approximation on real data.
This work proposes a model to prevent forgetting in continual classification learning.
problem Preventing forgetting in continual classification learning.
method The approach builds on lifelong generative capabilities and derives a new variational bound.
result The model prevents catastrophic forgetting in continual classification learning.
EWC uses quadratic penalties that may double-count earlier task data.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Extended derivation of EWC with multiple tasks.
result Quadratic penalties in EWC might double-count earlier task data.
Dynamic information balancing reduces catastrophic forgetting in modular neural networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks when learning multiple tasks.
method Dynamic Information Balancing (DIB) using reinforcement learning to adaptively route inputs based on module information load.
result DIB combined with EWC regularization outperforms models with similar capacity and EWC regularization.
Optimal CL requires perfect memory and is NP-hard.
problem Designing CL algorithms that perform reliably and avoid catastrophic forgetting.
method Theoretical approach to derive computational properties of optimal CL algorithms.
result Optimal CL algorithms generally solve an NP-hard problem and require perfect memory.
The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.
problem Safe exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when partially trained policies are deployed.
method Learning a conservative safety estimate through a critic, provably bounding catastrophic failures.
result The approach provably converges to competitive task performance with significantly lower catastrophic failure rates.
Paper tackles forgetting in neural networks, proposing solutions.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in artificial neural networks.
method Simple model and reinforcement learning applications.
result Proposes solutions to prevent forgetting in neural networks.
New method uses dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
problem Challenges of generalization and catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Developed a theoretical framework using dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
result Theoretical and practical method achieves better accuracy than existing methods.
This paper tackles catastrophic forgetting in neural networks by providing a unified framework for regularization-based continual learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks trained sequentially on multiple tasks.
method Formulates regularization-based continual learning as a second-order Taylor approximation of the loss function, leading to a unified framework.
result Theoretical results indicate the importance of accurate approximation of the Hessian matrix for optimization and generalization.
The study analyzes pricing and hedging of STCDOs using an affine model with a catastrophic risk component.
problem Pricing and hedging of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) with specific focus on mezzanine and equity tranches.
method Specified an affine two-factor model with a catastrophic risk component, estimated using QML and Kalman filter, derived variance-minimizing strategy, analyzed actual performance and simulated extreme loss scenarios.
result The variance-minimizing strategy is most effective for mezzanine tranches but fails for equity tranches.
A neural network approach to learn Cusp Catastrophe dynamics.
problem Complex behavior and non-convex parameter space in Cusp Catastrophe models.
method Training a deep neural network to learn dynamics without solving generating parameters.
result Demonstrated a neural network approach for the first time in Cusp Catastrophe models.
The paper values reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
problem Valuation of reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
method Compound dynamic contagion process, Esscher transform, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Arbitrage-free premiums for catastrophe stop-loss reinsurance contracts.
Random forest predicts catastrophe bond spreads with 93% accuracy.
problem Predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market.
method Random forest approach using all information in offering circulars.
result Random forest explains 93% of spread variability, significantly better than linear regression (47%).
Adam optimizer leads to more forgetting in neural networks.
problem Understanding and quantifying catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Comparative analysis of various optimization algorithms and metrics in different learning scenarios.
result Adam optimizer causes more forgetting compared to classical algorithms like SGD.
Bayesian online meta-learning framework tackles catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification problems.
method Bayesian online learning, meta-learning, Laplace approximation, variational inference.
result Framework effectively achieves goal of overcoming catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
Paper introduces Auto DeepVis to explain catastrophic forgetting in continual learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in continual learning of deep neural networks.
method Auto DeepVis and critical freezing techniques to address catastrophic forgetting.
result Critical freezing outperforms other methods on both past and future tasks.
A new method approximates loss functions asymmetrically to prevent catastrophic forgetting.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in deep neural networks.
method Approximating a true loss function using an asymmetric quadratic function with one side overestimated.
result Achieves state-of-the-art accuracy close to upper-bound performance on benchmark datasets.
Study helps identify which ANN parameters cause forgetting.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Determines individual parameter contributions to forgetting.
result Identifies specific ANN parameters causing forgetting.
Intrinsic fear prevents catastrophic states in reinforcement learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in reinforcement learning.
method Intrinsic fear (IF) is a learned reward shaping that penalizes the Q-learning objective based on the probability of imminent catastrophe.
result Intrinsic fear models prevent periodic catastrophes in reinforcement learning agents.
Paper tackles catastrophic overfitting in single-step adversarial training.
problem Catastrophic overfitting leads to sudden drop in robust accuracy.
method Proposes a method to prevent overfitting by using all adversarial examples.
result Demonstrates prevention of catastrophic overfitting and improves robustness.
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and use stochastic cusp cata…
Study analyzes catastrophic forgetting in continual learning using teacher-student networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in continuously learning systems.
method Teacher-student learning framework, similarity of input distributions and target functions.
result Network can avoid catastrophic forgetting with small input distribution similarity and large target function similarity.
The paper examines GANs' forgetting and mode collapse, showing how they relate and impact training.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and mode collapse in GANs during continual learning.
method Investigates the continual learning nature of GANs, analyzing discriminator's output landscapes and convergence.
result Catastrophic forgetting and mode collapse are interrelated and prevent GANs from converging.
New algorithm selects features using Catastrophe model for better regression analysis.
problem Improving feature selection in regression analysis to enhance model performance.
method The algorithm ranks features based on their fit to the Catastrophe model and uses Akaike information criterion for ranking.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms RELIEF in various datasets.
Proposes a method to prevent neural networks from forgetting learned tasks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Attention-based selective plasticity of synapses inspired by the cholinergic neuromodulatory system.
result Competitive performance on benchmark tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Paper tackles catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Regularizes training with sketches of Jacobian matrix of past data.
result Proves overcoming catastrophic forgetting for linear and wide neural networks.
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets. Overall, in this work we developed various metrics associated with catastrophic bifurca…
This work tackles catastrophic forgetting in neural networks by mimicking brain's metaplasticity.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks, where new tasks erase previously learned ones.
method Interpreting binarized neural networks as metaplastic systems, adjusting their training technique.
result Training technique reduces catastrophic forgetting without needing previously presented data.
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
problem Rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to shared catastrophic risk.
method Continuous-time preemption game with shared catastrophic externalities, showing suicide region and welfare distortion.
result The suicide region widens as catastrophic risk grows, and two mechanisms can close it.
This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application t…
Synthetic data helps prevent forgetting when learning sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Generate synthetic data via two-step optimisation process using meta-gradients.
result Training on synthetic data prevents forgetting when learning sequentially.
Study optimal dividend strategies for insurers with natural catastrophe claims.
problem Maximizing dividends for a catastrophe insurer over its lifetime.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problem, viscosity solutions, numerical approximation.
result Optimal dividend strategies identified for natural catastrophe insurers.
Paper tackles catastrophic forgetting with task-based hard attention.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks after learning new tasks.
method Task-based hard attention mechanism learned through SGD.
result Reduces catastrophic forgetting by 45-80%.
The goal of this thesis is to study the singularities of the exponential map of Riemannian and Finsler manifolds (a concept related to caustics and catastrophes), and the object known as the cut locus (aka ridge, medial axis or skeleton), to improve existing results about its structure, to look at it in new ways, and t…