A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.
New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.
This paper introduces new risk measures for evaluating losses with varying time horizons.
Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…
Study on implied certainty equivalent rates in financial markets and electric vehicles.
We present a simulation-and-regression method for solving dynamic portfolio allocation problems in the presence of general transaction costs, liquidity costs and market impacts. This method extends the classical least squares Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate switching costs, corresponding to transaction costs and t…
Study shows certainty equivalent policy minimizes regret in continuous-time systems.
The aim of this paper is to define the market-consistent multi-period value of an insurance liability cash flow in discrete time subject to repeated capital requirements, and explore its properties. In line with current regulatory frameworks, the approach presented is based on a hypothetical transfer of the original li…
In this paper we aim to find a measure for the diversity of cash flows between agents in an economy. We argue that cash flows can be linked to probabilities of finding a currency unit in a given cash flow. We then use the information entropy as a natural measure of diversity. This leads to a hirarchical inequality meas…
The paper develops a new approach to conditional risk measures using modular convex analysis.
Paper develops models to forecast private equity fund cash flows.
Solves Merton's investment-consumption problem with certainty equivalent approach.
Overview of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes with Optimized Certainty Equivalent.
Paper defines the payback period for nonconventional cash flows using axioms.
Study risk-sensitive market making with entropy regularization for better quote control.
The paper fits cash management models to data using stochastic and linear programming.
For incomplete preference relations that are represented by multiple priors and/or multiple -- possibly multivariate -- utility functions, we define a certainty equivalent as well as the utility buy and sell prices and indifference price bounds as set-valued functions of the claim. Furthermore, we motivate and introduc…
Study optimizes insurance liability cash flows with regulatory capital requirements.
Study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives, aligning with replication strategy and addressing timing frictions.
Cash managers make daily decisions based on predicted monetary inflows from debtors and outflows to creditors. Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flow include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set from…
Deep learning solves dynamic programming with recursive utility.
We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replicatio…
The paper analyzes risk estimation methods and derives bounds for OCE risk.
Proposes a Carbon Equivalence Principle for financial products to align incentives and drive sustainability.
Introduces new performance measures using scaled utility functions.
In this article, a sensitivity analysis of long-term cash flows with respect to perturbations in the underlying process is presented. For this purpose, we employ the martingale extraction through which a pricing operator is transformed into what is easier to address. The method of Fournie et al. will be combined with t…
Study scaling limits for option pricing in trinomial models.
CEFOL uses deep learning for dynamic programming with recursive utility.
Optimizes loan recovery timing by forecasting cash flows.
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon b…
We consider the class of risk measures associated with optimized certainty equivalents. This class includes several popular examples, such as CV@R and monotone mean-variance. Numerical schemes are developed for the computation of these risk measures using Fourier transform methods. This leads, in particular, to a very …
Research improves LGD approximation using XGBoost for cash-flow-limited data.
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical ownership of a commodity is taken to provide a stream of convenience dividends eq…
A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.
We study the performance of the certainty equivalent controller on Linear Quadratic (LQ) control problems with unknown transition dynamics. We show that for both the fully and partially observed settings, the sub-optimality gap between the cost incurred by playing the certainty equivalent controller on the true system …
This paper closely examines theoretical and practical aspects of the widely used discounted cash flows (DCF) valuation method. It assesses its potentials as well as several weaknesses. A special emphasize is being put on the valuation of companies using the DCF method. The paper finds that the discounted cash flow meth…
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with optimized certainty equivalents.
This work uses a scalable approach to identify partially observed nonlinear systems.
The present paper provides the basis for a novel financial asset pricing model that could avoid the shortcomings of, or even completely replace the traditional DCF model. The model is based on Brownian motion logic and expected future cash flow values. It can be very useful for Islamic Finance.
A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a colle…
Unified framework connects two market-making models, revealing their underlying equivalence.
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably p…
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
We consider a constructive model for asset price bubbles, where the market price is endogenously determined by the trading activity on the market and the fundamental price is exogenously given, as in the work of Jarrow, Protter and Roch (2012). To justify from a fundamental point of view, we embed this …
Study optimal investment decisions for diverse risk-tolerant agents.
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands. We first study this problem under expected utility preferences with an objectivel…
Cash management is concerned with optimizing the short-term funding requirements of a company. To this end, different optimization strategies have been proposed to minimize costs using daily cash flow forecasts as the main input to the models. However, the effect of the accuracy of such forecasts on cash management pol…
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is determined by a collection of independent market factors called X-factors. The ma…