New method calibrates neural network predictions for better reliability.
problem Improper probability estimates from deep networks leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a constrained optimization approach for a monotonic calibration map.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance across various datasets and models.
Meta-Cal improves post-hoc calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of uncalibrated neural network predictions.
method Meta-Cal uses a base calibrator and a ranking model with constraints to provide high-probability bounds.
result Meta-Cal significantly outperforms existing methods in post-hoc multi-class classification calibration.
The study extends calibrated geometry to smooth maps and finds energy bounds.
problem Finding energy bounds for smooth maps between Riemannian manifolds.
method Generalizing calibrated submanifolds to smooth maps and applying to energy functional.
result Lower bounds to the energy of smooth maps in homotopy classes.
Space mapping calibrates financial models, shown feasible for Heston model.
problem Calibrating financial models with few observable parameters and non-linear constraints.
method Space mapping approach using a coarse surrogate model and fine model calibration.
result Space mapping approach feasible for Heston model calibration.
A new method for multiclass calibration using vector quantization.
problem Challenges in multiclass calibration, especially in high-stakes settings.
method Compositional approach via Vector Quantization (VQ) to learn region-specific calibration maps.
result Significant improvements in local calibration with competitive global calibration and predictive performance.
New PDEs for k-harmonic maps link to calibrated fibrations.
problem Understanding k-harmonic maps and their relation to calibrated fibrations. method Analyzing two special classes of k-harmonic maps between Riemannian manifolds. result Explicit noncompact examples of the second class of maps.
The paper extends Liouville's theorem to calibrated geometries in various dimensions.
problem Extending Liouville's theorem to calibrated geometries in different dimensions.
method Analyzing Sobolev mappings and calibrations in calibrated geometries.
result Calibrations in certain dimensions have the Liouville property.
Given a transportation cost c:M×Mˉ→R, optimal maps minimize the total cost of moving masses from M to Mˉ. We find a pseudo-metric and a calibration form on M×Mˉ such that the graph of an optimal map is a calibrated maximal submanifold. We define the mass of space-like current…
We prove that tangent cones to 2-dimensional calibrated cycles are unique. Using this result we prove a rate of convergence for the mass of the blow-up of a calibrated integral 2-cycle towards the limiting density. With the same techniques, we can also prove such a rate for J-holomorphic maps between almost complex man…
A co-evolutionary approach for Heston model calibration reduces overfitting with diverse datasets.
problem Overfitting and lack of generalization in Heston model calibration.
method Coupling a genetic algorithm with an evolving neural inverse map, using both GA-history sampling and Latin hypercube sampling.
result Diverse datasets improve out-of-sample stability and calibration accuracy.
CCAC calibrates DNN classifiers on OOD datasets by separating mis-classified samples.
problem Calibrating DNN classifiers on out-of-distribution datasets is challenging.
method CCAC introduces an auxiliary class to map DNN output to calibrated confidence, separating mis-classified from correctly classified samples.
result CCAC consistently outperforms prior methods on various DNN models, datasets, and applications.
The paper addresses decision making with partially calibrated forecasts, offering a robust approach.
problem Developing a decision-making strategy for forecasts that are only partially calibrated.
method A minimax approach to mapping predictions to actions, considering worst-case distributions.
result The minimax optimal decision rule is to trust predictions and act accordingly, even for partially calibrated forecasts.
New forms calibrate minimal graphs in arbitrary dimensions.
problem Calibrating minimal graphs in arbitrary codimension.
method Constructing closed forms from minimal graphs and estimating their comass.
result Conditions ensuring minimal graphs are calibrated and area-minimizing.
Techniques from deep learning play a more and more important role for the important task of calibration of financial models. The pioneering paper by Hernandez [Risk, 2017] was a catalyst for resurfacing interest in research in this area. In this paper we advocate an alternative (two-step) approach using deep learning t…
A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.
problem Difficulty in long-horizon value prediction in offline reinforcement learning.
method Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion, and Iterated Bellman Calibration.
result Finite-sample guarantees show that Bellman calibration error is controlled at nonparametric rates.
Proposes a new method for multi-class classification with well-calibrated predictions.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of multi-class classification models.
method Trains data in a latent space induced by an (n−1)-dimensional simplex, then extends and fits a regression model. result Demonstrates a well-calibrated classifier with improved prediction and calibration properties.
The paper solves Bernstein problems for specific submanifolds in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Bernstein problem for smooth maps to lower dimensions forming calibrated submanifolds.
method Established conditions for maps to be affine based on the slope's second elementary symmetric polynomial.
result Conditions ensuring maps are affine for coassociative and Cayley submanifolds in R7 and R8. Improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries proved.
problem Proving an improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries.
method Two proofs: direct and reduction to classical case.
result Established an improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries.
This paper introduces a novel recalibration method for multivariate forecasts.
problem Multivariate calibration for potentially misspecified models.
method Local mappings between marginal probability integral transform values and observed space, using K-nearest neighbors or normalizing flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on currency exchange rate and childhood malnutrition data.
Scaffolding sets improve predictor correctness across subsets.
problem Ensuring predictor correctness across multiple subsets.
method Inspired by neural nets, constructing scaffolding sets to ensure correctness.
result Scaffolding sets ensure predictor correctness, not just calibration.
The paper introduces a spline-based method for calibrating neural networks.
problem Ensuring neural network outputs are reliable for safety-critical applications.
method Approximating the empirical cumulative distribution function using splines to map network outputs to calibrated probabilities.
result The spline-based recalibration consistently outperforms existing methods on calibration measures.
Sparked by Alòs, León, and Vives (2007); Fukasawa (2011, 2017); Gatheral, Jaisson, and Rosenbaum (2018), so-called rough stochastic volatility models such as the rough Bergomi model by Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral (2016) constitute the latest evolution in option price modeling. Unlike standard bivariate diffusion models s…
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy performance in many tasks. However, recent works have pointed out that the outputs provided by these models are not well-calibrated, seriously limiting their use in critical decision scenarios. In this work, we propose to use a decoupled Bayesian stage…
Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the exist…
Variational characterization of calibrated submanifolds in different contexts.
problem Characterize calibrated submanifolds using variational principles.
method Variational approach with special variations of ambient metrics and calibrations.
result Critical points of volume functional correspond to calibrated submanifolds.
Algorithm optimizes quantized isotonic regression with log-linear time updates.
problem Optimizing quantized isotonic regression estimations.
method Modified PAVA algorithm for sequential optimization.
result Log-linear time updates for optimal quantized mapping.
HappyMap improves fairness and learning across domains by generalizing multi-calibration.
problem Improving fairness and learning across different domains for predictions.
method Proposes HappyMap, a generalized approach to multi-calibration.
result Unified understanding of fairness and learning across domains.
PRCD-MAP learns to trust imperfect priors in causal discovery, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Tackles the brittle trade-off between blind trust and rejection of external priors in causal discovery.
method Proposes PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to imperfect priors and modulates regularization in a MAP objective.
result Enjoys a population-level safety guarantee and outperforms existing methods on real-world causal discovery tasks.
Linking SV and PDV models for better volatility forecasts.
problem Improving volatility forecasting models.
method Assumed density filtering to map SV models to PDV representations, introducing calibration procedure.
result Improves in-sample fit and robust out-of-sample forecasts.
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
problem Heterogeneous regional coverage gaps in conformal prediction.
method Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for group discovery; local calibration buffers at BMU or fixed grid.
result Reduces regional coverage gaps on 7/8 benchmarks by 7.1%.
MOPI optimizes flexible set-valued mappings to achieve superior shape adaptivity in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Minimax Optimization Predictive Inference (MOPI) framework that optimizes over a flexible class of set-valued mappings.
result MOPI achieves superior shape adaptivity and maintains a principled connection to mean squared coverage error.
Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities output by the model map to the observed probabilities). In this study we cover the cu…
We lay down an elementary yet fundamental lemma concerning a finite algebraicness property of a smooth map from an Azumaya/matrix manifold with a fundamental module to a smooth manifold. This gives us a starting point to build a synthetic (synonymously, C∞-algebraic) symplectic geometry and calibrated geometr…
Annealing Double-Head calibrates deep neural networks during training.
problem Overestimation or underestimation of predictive confidence in deep neural networks.
method An additional calibration head and Annealing technique to dynamically scale logits.
result State-of-the-art model calibration performance achieved without post-processing.
AECF improves multimodal inference robustness and calibration.
problem Robustness and calibration issues in multimodal systems with missing inputs.
method Adaptive Entropy-Gated Contrastive Fusion (AECF) layer.
result Improves masked-input mAP by +18 pp at a 50% drop rate.
The paper introduces diagnostic transport maps to improve the reliability of rare event predictions.
problem Improper calibration of predictive distributions, especially for rare events.
method Diagnostic transport maps to adjust base model's probabilities for better calibration.
result Diagnostic transport maps improve predictive performance for rare events, including 24-hour rapid intensity change.
Deep learning calibrates HJM forward curves for commodity options pricing.
problem Calibrating HJM forward curves for accurate option pricing in commodity markets.
method Introduced a neural network to approximate true option prices from model parameters, calibrated using observed option prices.
result Neural network calibration yields high accuracy in recovering option prices, even with model parameter approximation loss.
Foot-mounted inertial positioning (FMIP) can face problems of inertial drifts and unknown initial states in real applications, which renders the estimated trajectories inaccurate and not obtained in a well defined coordinate system for matching trajectories of different users. In this paper, an approach adopting receiv…
Quasiregular curves in product manifolds are shown to be carried by quasiregular maps.
problem Characterizing quasiregular curves in product manifolds with small distortion.
method Analyzing K-quasiregular volNimes-curves in product manifolds N=N1imes⋯imesNk. result Quasiregular curves of small distortion in product manifolds are carried by quasiregular maps.
A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.
problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.
Direct neural network calibration outperforms indirect method for rough volatility models.
problem Calibrating volatility models with neural networks.
method Comparison of direct and indirect neural network approaches for volatility model calibration.
result Direct approach outperforms indirect approach for rough volatility models.
Tree-based models biased when trained on imbalanced data, requiring new calibration methods.
problem Bias in tree-based models trained on imbalanced datasets.
method Analytical calibration of random forest models, demonstrating bias in decision trees.
result Calibrating tree-based models on imbalanced data negatively impacts predictions, especially for the minority class.
A fast calibration method for rough volatility models with jumps.
problem Calibrating stochastic volatility models to market data efficiently.
method Structure-preserving approach: split pricing formula, precompute data-independent integrals, and approximate market-dependent remainder with neural networks.
result Calibration achieves high accuracy and speed, and a pure-jump rough volatility model adequately captures VIX dynamics.
New algorithms achieve decision calibration without sample complexity dependent on feature dimension.
problem Achieving decision calibration for nonlinear loss functions with polynomial sample complexity.
method Developed smooth relaxation of decision calibration, enabling dimension-free algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms post-process predictors to satisfy decision calibration without worsening accuracy.
Mapping forest aboveground biomass (AGB) has become an important task, particularly for the reporting of carbon stocks and changes. AGB can be mapped using synthetic aperture radar data (SAR) or passive optical data. However, these data are insensitive to high AGB levels (\textgreater{}150 Mg/ha, and \textgreater{}300 …
We study conditions for which the mapping torus of a 6-manifold endowed with an SU(3)-structure is a locally conformal calibrated G2-manifold, that is, a 7-manifold endowed with a G2-structure φ such that dφ=−θ∧φ for a closed non-vanishing 1-form θ. Moreover, we show that if $(…
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
LADaR framework calibrates machine learning models for instance-wise predictions.
problem Challenges in assessing and calibrating predictive distributions for complex inputs.
method Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities (LADaR) framework and extttCal−PIT algorithm. result Achieves better instance-wise calibration than existing methods in galaxy distance estimation.