New calibration energy measures deviation from calibrated geometry, enabling mean curvature flow in infinite volumes.
problem Mean curvature flow in infinite volumes with finite energy.
method Introducing calibration energy and proving its dissipation identity for mean curvature flows.
result Every proper self-expander with finite calibration energy is a plane in all dimensions and codimensions.
The study extends calibrated geometry to smooth maps and finds energy bounds.
problem Finding energy bounds for smooth maps between Riemannian manifolds.
method Generalizing calibrated submanifolds to smooth maps and applying to energy functional.
result Lower bounds to the energy of smooth maps in homotopy classes.
Calibrates historical and implied correlations in energy markets.
problem Challenges in aligning historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles.
method Multiplicative multi-factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model combined with stochastic volatility from lifted Heston model, using Kemna-Vorst approximation and Fourier-based techniques.
result Remarkable joint historical and implied calibration fits on the German power market.
The paper highlights how machine learning calibrations can be biased by training data.
problem Machine learning calibrations can be biased by the training data, affecting downstream analyses.
method The paper examines simulation-based and data-based calibrations, highlighting their prior dependence and proposing solutions.
result A recently proposed Gaussian Ansatz approach can avoid some biases in simulation-based calibrations.
Unified detector calibration and simulation using MLE from generative models.
problem Combining detector calibration and simulation using traditional methods.
method Maximum likelihood estimation from conditional generative models.
result Prior-independent and non-Gaussian resolutions possible.
Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance of the asset. Energy commodities are commonly represented by multi-factor linear…
New framework ensures valid uncertainty estimates for any data stream changes.
problem Challenges of distribution shifts and adversarial actors in real-world data streams.
method Leveraging Blackwell approachability from game theory, the framework guarantees calibrated uncertainties for any compact space.
result Improves calibration and decision-making for energy systems.
Paper proposes new loss functions for training energy networks.
problem Challenges in computing gradients for training energy networks.
method Proposes generalized Fenchel-Young losses for efficient gradient computation.
result Demonstrates the calibration of excess risk for linear-concave energies.
The paper studies harmonic graphs in the Heisenberg group and their properties.
problem No analogous theorem exists for H-minimal surfaces in the Heisenberg group. method Introduced intrinsic Dirichlet energy and studied its critical points (contact harmonic graphs).
result Calibration condition and construction of energy-minimizing graphs with various singularities.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, …
New deep learning model optimizes energy use in buildings.
problem Optimizing energy use and comfort in large buildings.
method Transformer-based metamodel trained with simulation and sensor data, calibrated with CMA-ES, optimized with multi-objective algorithms.
result Optimal settings reduce energy loads while maintaining thermal comfort and air quality.
For Hitchin's generalised geometries we introduce and analyse the concept of a structured submanifold which encapsulates the classical notion of a calibrated submanifold. Under a suitable integrability condition on the ambient geometry, these generalised calibrated cycles minimise a functional occurring as D-brane ener…
New method calibrates uncertainty in molecular property predictions.
problem Uncalibrated uncertainty estimates in molecular property predictions.
method Message Passing Neural Networks with calibrated probabilistic predictive distribution.
result Accurate molecular formation energy predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty.
This paper applies Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework to energy markets for practical use.
problem Applying complex financial models to energy markets for practical use.
method Calibration by PCA, Monte Carlo simulations, derivatives pricing.
result Calibrated model accurately simulates European power and gas markets.
Reinterprets classifiers as energy-based models for joint distributions.
problem Improving classifier performance and calibration.
method Interprets discriminative classifiers as energy-based models, trains on unlabeled data, and improves model quality.
result Improves calibration, robustness, and out-of-distribution detection.
Study energy-minimizing maps in projective spaces, proving sharp bounds.
problem Finding optimal mappings in projective spaces.
method Proving lower bounds and characterizing energy-minimizing maps.
result Sharp lower bounds and characterization of energy-minimizing maps.
Curves in higher dimensions are either affine or have super-Euclidean energy growth.
problem Characterizing entire conformal curves in higher-dimensional spaces.
method Blow-down argument and interaction of generalized Cauchy--Riemann equations with calibrated geometries.
result Entire conformal curves are either affine or have super-Euclidean energy growth.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
New bin-wise scaling methods improve prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning.
problem Improving prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning regression.
method Adaptations of Binwise Variance Scaling (BVS) with alternative loss functions and feature-based binning.
result Improved adaptivity and consistency in prediction uncertainty calibration.
Extends K-energy to complexified Kähler classes for scalar curvature study.
problem Scalar curvature equation with B-field on complexified Kähler classes.
method Extended K-energy functional, convex along geodesics.
result Uniqueness of solutions in some cases.
STOIC improves energy demand forecasting with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient for energy systems; reliable uncertainty estimates are needed.
method Integrates graph-based forecasting with tabular foundation models for zero-shot calibration of spatial-temporal residuals.
result STOIC delivers more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.
Understanding the nature of dark energy, the mysterious force driving the accelerated expansion of the Universe, is a major challenge of modern cosmology. The next generation of cosmological surveys, specifically designed to address this issue, rely on accurate measurements of the apparent shapes of distant galaxies. H…
The study uses statistical methods to analyze nuclear mass models.
problem Understanding the information content of nuclear masses from models.
method Bayesian calibration, Bayesian model averaging, chi-square correlation analysis, principal component analysis.
result A dramatic parameter reduction can be achieved in both 4-parameter and 14-parameter models.
Framework for energy markets using measure-valued processes.
problem Arbitrage-free modeling of energy futures markets.
method Translation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to measure-valued processes, derivation of HJM-drift condition, analysis of measure-valued diffusions.
result Existence of non-negative measure-valued diffusions satisfying the HJM-drift condition.
Study shows TAP free energy minimization provides better posterior inference in high-dimensional linear models.
problem Deviation from true posterior mean and underestimation of posterior uncertainty in variational inference.
method Minimization of TAP free energy in a high-dimensional asymptotic framework, showing geometric and statistical properties.
result Local minimizer of TAP free energy provides consistent estimate of posterior marginals and correctly calibrated posterior inference.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
New AI approach improves quantum device calibration by leveraging prior scientific discoveries.
problem Lack of abundant data in scientific disciplines hinders model generalizability.
method Introduces a new machine learning approach that combines prior scientific knowledge with data.
result Accuracy in predicting quantum device energy spectrum surpasses current state-of-the-art by over 20%.
Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.
problem Impact of lack of co-optimization of energy and reserve in high wind penetration scenarios.
method Developed two models with and without co-optimization, calibrated with Spanish market parameters.
result Models show significant differences in energy and reserve management.
Meta learns low-rank covariance factors for better uncertainty estimation.
problem Sub-optimal covariance matrices in multi-task settings.
method Meta learns diagonal or diagonal plus low-rank factors using an attentive set encoder.
result Efficiently constructed task-specific covariance matrices improve uncertainty estimation.
Optimal energy trading strategy for intraday markets using Hawkes processes.
problem Optimal execution in intraday energy markets with specific trading patterns.
method Calibrated Hawkes process model with transient price impact.
result Substantial cost reductions in TWAP and VWAP benchmarks.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of wind speed predictions for power generation.
method A novel machine learning approach for calibrating wind speed ensemble forecasts.
result The proposed method improves the calibration and accuracy of probabilistic and point forecasts.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
Efficiently calibrates computationally expensive models using vine copulas.
problem Computational models are expensive and hard to calibrate with real data.
method Variational Bayes inference with vine copulas for dependent data.
result Computational scalability and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.
Develops a method to ensure accurate quantile forecasts across multiple levels.
problem Ensuring accurate quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even under distribution shifts.
method Multi-level quantile tracker (MultiQT) wraps around any forecaster to produce calibrated forecasts.
result Guaranteed calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even against adversarial shifts.
Paper proposes an efficient method for calibrating spatio-temporal forecasts.
problem Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting challenges like signal anomalies and distributional shifts.
method Learning with Calibration (ST-TTC) for real-time bias correction.
result ST-TTC improves spatio-temporal forecasting accuracy with reduced computational cost.
As sensor networks for health monitoring become more prevalent, so will the need to control their usage and consumption of energy. This paper presents a method which leverages the algorithm's performance and energy consumption. By utilising Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques, we provide an adaptive framework, which…
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
problem Pricing energy spread options with specific stochastic dynamics.
method Uses an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by variance gamma processes, applying the Esscher transform and FFT method.
result Derives an analytical formula for pricing forwards and spread options.
A new algebra for Frobenius manifolds solves PDEs and constraints.
problem Understanding the algebraic structure of Frobenius manifolds.
method Constructing a Virasoro-like algebra and deriving PDEs and constraints.
result Solves a family of quadratic PDEs for the genus-zero free energy.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutr…
Study extends Lévy models to capture market propagation delays.
problem Capturing sudden events in related markets with stochastic delays.
method Extend multivariate Lévy models using self-decomposability and multivariate subordination.
result Derived closed-form expressions for characteristic function and implemented Monte Carlo scheme.
Bayesian calibration for BCP self-assembly models using image data and measure transport.
problem Calibrating models of BCP self-assembly from image data with aleatory uncertainty.
method Likelihood-free inference via measure transport and summary statistics.
result Expected information gains can be computed efficiently for model calibration.
Unified view of contrastive and supervised learning improves model performance.
problem Improving model performance in classification, robustness, and detection.
method Hybrid discriminative-generative training of energy-based models.
result Improved performance on classification, robustness, out-of-distribution detection, and calibration.
Optimizes renewable energy mix to meet carbon-free targets at lowest cost.
problem Minimizing annual procurement costs while achieving specified carbon-free hourly performance.
method Probabilistic framework with simulation scenarios and probability constraints. Fixed set of renewable generators and load customer.
result Demonstrated that certain renewable energy portfolios can meet carbon-free targets at lower costs compared to others.
Study examines Yang-Mills-Higgs energy convergence to codimension-three area functional.
problem Asymptotic behavior of Yang-Mills-Higgs energy in large mass limit.
method Investigates the asymptotic behavior of Yang-Mills-Higgs energy in the large mass limit, proving convergence to the codimension-three area functional.
result The (n−3)-currents dual to the Yang-Mills-Higgs energy converge to a relative integral (n−3)-cycle. Paper introduces REED for noncoherent OTA-FL, reducing latency without phase alignment.
problem Noncoherent OTA-FL requires signed model updates without phase alignment.
method Introduces REED for continuous signed aggregation using resource-element energy difference.
result Exact variance laws for REED and chip-diverse extension in Rayleigh fading.
PRISM-FCP improves federated prediction robustness against Byzantine attacks.
problem Byzantine attacks in federated learning.
method Partial model sharing and distance-based maliciousness scores.
result Maintains nominal coverage guarantees under Byzantine attacks.
EBMs trained on discrete data using heat equations on graph structures.
problem Training EBMs on discrete or mixed data.
method Heat equations on graph structures for data perturbation.
result Efficacy demonstrated in various applications.