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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3469103137 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for calibration contamination

Trimming helps in conformal prediction when it separates anomaly scores.

problem Effectiveness of trimming in conformal prediction under contamination.
method Analyse fixed-threshold trimming as a replacement of the contaminated calibration law with a retained law.
result Trimming helps when it separates anomaly scores, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem.

The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.

problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.

New method for selective prediction under interventions learns causal structure from data.

problem Tight uncertainty sets in selective conformal prediction under unknown interventional settings.
method Partial causal structure learning for descendant indicators, contamination-robust coverage theorem, algorithms for descendant discovery and distance estimation.
result Valid selective conformal prediction under contamination up to 30% with controlled coverage.

New method calibrates ambiguity sets for robust decision-making under contamination.

problem Minimizing worst-case expected loss over distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments.
method Bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets that learn a high-mass bulk set from data and bound tail contributions.
result Closed-form, finite robust objective and tractable optimization for various losses and geometries.

A robust loss for anomaly mitigation and unsupervised contamination classification

problem Detecting and mitigating contamination in supervised and unsupervised settings
method Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM)
result Recovering the structure of contamination and identifying label-flip pairs

Bayesian method estimates contamination factor for unsupervised anomaly detection.

problem No good methods for estimating contamination factor in unsupervised anomaly detection.
method Bayesian approach using mixture formulation of anomaly detector outputs.
result Estimated contamination factor distribution is well-calibrated and improves anomaly detection performance.

Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.

Study robustness of split conformal prediction in data contamination setting.

problem Robustness of split conformal prediction under data contamination.
method Analyze split conformal prediction's performance in a contaminated data setting and propose a new method.
result Demonstrated the impact of corrupted data on prediction intervals' coverage and efficiency.

Unified framework improves neural network robustness against label noise and adversarial attacks.

problem High sensitivity of neural networks to data contamination, including label noises and adversarial perturbations.
method Unified minimum-divergence estimation problem, rSDNet framework.
result Improves robustness to label corruption and adversarial attacks while maintaining competitive accuracy on clean data.

Unified approach for multicalibration in weakly supervised learning.

problem Existing multicalibration methods require clean input-label pairs, which are unavailable in weakly supervised learning.
method Developed estimators and post-hoc correction methods for multicalibration under weak supervision.
result Unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision with finite-sample guarantees.

SHIFT improves robustness in estimating dose-response functions with heavy-tailed contamination.

problem Outliers bias estimates of average dose-response functions in heavy-tailed data.
method SHIFT combines cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization, Welsch-loss, and defensive OLS refit.
result SHIFT reduces RMSE from 1.03 to 0.33 on localized contamination test.

Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.

problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.
method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.
result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.

This paper addresses measurement errors in high-dimensional compositional data using a log-contrast model calibration approach.

problem Measurement errors in high-dimensional regression models involving compositional covariates.
method Calibration approach for the linear log-contrast model under lenient sparsity conditions.
result Established asymptotic normality of the estimator for inference.

A contamination in a 3-manifold is an object interpolating between the contact structure and the lamination. Contaminations seem to provide a link between 3-dimensional contact geometry and the classical topology of 3-manifolds, as described in a separate paper. In this paper we deal with contaminations carried by bran…

2003-07-21abs ↗pdf ↗

The present paper provides a multi-period contagion model in the credit risk field. Our model is an extension of Davis and Lo's infectious default model. We consider an economy of n firms which may default directly or may be infected by other defaulting firms (a domino effect being also possible). The spontaneous defau…

2009-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Study minimax robustness in statistical estimation under Wasserstein contamination.

problem Adversarial perturbations in statistical data.
method Developed minimax theory for qr\ell_q^r losses under Wasserstein-rr contaminations.
result Exact minimax risk identified for joint contaminations in location estimation and prediction in linear regression.

Study shows robust method for estimating density ratios even with heavy contamination.

problem Estimating density ratios in the presence of heavy contamination.
method Weighted density ratio estimation (DRE) with doubly strong robustness.
result Weighted DRE achieves sparse consistency under heavy contamination.

Generative models can still learn from contaminated data, but with limitations.

problem How much contamination can generative models tolerate?
method Characterized robustness under contaminated enumerations, proving generation is achievable for all countable collections if contamination fraction converges to zero.
result Generation under contamination is achievable for all countable collections if contamination fraction converges to zero, but dense generation is strictly less robust.

New algorithm resists contamination in high-dimensional regression with optimal performance.

problem Adversarial and measurement errors in high-dimensional data.
method Adversarial Contamination-resistant Iterative Hard Thresholding (AC-IHT) algorithm.
result Achieves minimax near-optimal estimation and signal-adaptive support recovery.

A new method corrects bias in machine learning for trading by filtering out non-executable prices.

problem Contaminated data from price limits causes misleading performance metrics in trading models.
method Mask-first design with tradability filters, GPU optimization, and penalized losses.
result The system achieves Sharpe ratios of 1.63 on real data, significantly outperforming existing methods.

Improved robust regression with clean covariates achieves better rates than Huber's model.

problem Robust regression under adaptive contamination of responses with clean covariates.
method Exploiting clean covariates to construct an estimator achieving better rates than Huber's model.
result Improved estimation rate even with constant contamination, achieving consistency.

New method trims network data to resist adversarial contamination.

problem Adversarial contamination in network data affects statistical and algorithmic performance.
method Proposes a new trimming method operating in model space to address both block and white noise contamination.
result Demonstrates superior performance in simulations compared to direct trimming.

Paper shows MoM is optimal under adversarial contamination for certain distributions.

problem Optimality of MoM under adversarial contamination.
method Upper and lower bounds for MoM's error under adversarial contamination.
result MoM is (minimax) optimal for distributions with finite variance and infinite variance with finite absolute moments.

A low rank matrix X has been contaminated by uniformly distributed noise, missing values, outliers and corrupt entries. Reconstruction of X from the singular values and singular vectors of the contaminated matrix Y is a key problem in machine learning, computer vision and data science. In this paper we show that common…

2017-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.

problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.

Efficiently estimates mean in contaminated Gaussian data with near-optimal sample complexity.

problem Robust mean estimation in the presence of mean-shift contamination.
method First computationally efficient algorithm with near-optimal sample complexity and polynomial-time running.
result Approximates the target mean to any desired accuracy with constant fraction of outliers tolerated.

Robust fuzzy clustering for EEG driver alertness with outlier detection.

problem Ambiguous state boundaries in multivariate time series data.
method RFCPCA, a robust fuzzy subspace-clustering method for MTS.
result RFCPCA improves clustering accuracy and characterizes uncertainty and outliers in MTS.

This paper studies active learning in the context of robust statistics. Specifically, we propose a variant of the Best Arm Identification problem for \emph{contaminated bandits}, where each arm pull has probability ε\varepsilon of generating a sample from an arbitrary contamination distribution instead of the true und…

2018-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study tackles contamination and heterogeneity in multi-task learning, improving robustness and personalization.

problem Challenges in integrating related tasks due to contamination and heterogeneity.
method Proposes a filtering-based robust multi-task gradient descent method to estimate global and clean task-specific minimizers.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and personalization compared to existing methods.

Optimal transport adapted for contaminated probabilities, showing equivalence under specific conditions.

problem Adapting optimal transport for εε-contaminated sets.
method Generalized optimal transport problems with lower probabilities, showing equivalence under εε-contaminations.
result Monge's and Kantorovich's problems coincide under εε-contaminated sets, but not always.

Theoretical study shows AI models can recover from contaminated training data.

problem Data contamination in AI training can degrade model performance.
method Theoretical analysis and experiments on various data types.
result Models converge to true distribution under mild conditions, with rate dependent on real data fraction.

Neural networks compress and sample WDN contamination dynamics efficiently.

problem Infrastructure monitoring of complex, networked systems like water distribution networks is expensive and challenging.
method Developed Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) operators and neural networks (NN) for efficient data collection and inference.
result High accuracy reconstruction of contamination dynamics using only 5-10% of the sample set.

PAIR-CI calibrates CI tests for causal discovery with incomplete data.

problem Miscalibration of CI tests when imputing incomplete data.
method Integrates multiple imputation directly into the inferential procedure via a paired permutation design.
result PAIR-CI reduces false positive rates to below 5% in simulations.

Study enhances robustness of In-CVaR based regression models under perturbation and contamination.

problem Enhancing robustness of nonlinear regression models under perturbation and contamination.
method Introduces interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR) and rigorously analyzes its robustness properties under both perturbation and contamination.
result The In-CVaR based estimator is qualitatively robust in terms of the Prokhorov metric if and only if the largest portion of losses is trimmed.

FedIRT enables privacy-preserving psychometric estimation without centralizing data.

problem Privacy and data governance concerns in centralized IRT estimation.
method Federated Item Response Theory (FedIRT) and FedIRT-DP for differentially private estimation.
result FedIRT matches accuracy of centralized estimators while preserving privacy.

Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.

problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed and adversarially contaminated covariates and responses.
method Applying a filtering algorithm to covariates and then using Huber regression, least trimmed squares, or least absolute deviation estimators on the remaining data.
result Near-optimal error rates achieved for the Huber regression estimator.