A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study examines how risky investments affect insurance capital valuation.
It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more complex aspect of financial contagion. This study presents an extension of the …
The accurate characterization of the business cycles in the nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems in the time of globalization represents a formidable research problem. The central banks and other financial institutions make their decisions on the minimum capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer …
Regulator allocates buffers to prevent financial contagion in networks with common assets.
Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used i…
We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system. Relative to the benchmark case of banks with homogeneous degrees and balance-sh…
Secure aggregation for buffered asynchronous federated learning without TEEs.
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Ha…
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
This paper investigates two mechanisms of financial contagion that are, firstly, the correlated exposure of banks to the same source of risk, and secondly the direct exposure of banks in the interbank market. It will consider a random network of banks which are connected through the inter-bank market and will discuss t…
A new buffer system improves continual learning in RL agents by adapting to changing environments.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
The paper examines the unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives in large portfolios.
We present Memory Augmented Policy Optimization (MAPO), a simple and novel way to leverage a memory buffer of promising trajectories to reduce the variance of policy gradient estimate. MAPO is applicable to deterministic environments with discrete actions, such as structured prediction and combinatorial optimization ta…
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
The paper proposes a method to learn from both simulation and real-world data.
Hierarchical GANs reduce anomaly detection costs.
We propose a novel defense against all existing gradient based adversarial attacks on deep neural networks for image classification problems. Our defense is based on a combination of deep neural networks and simple image transformations. While straightforward in implementation, this defense yields a unique security pro…
MER algorithm speeds up VI solving with Markovian data.
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time series. The challenge is two-fold: not only do computations scale linearly with t…
A mean-reverting financial instrument is optimally traded by buying it when it is sufficiently below the estimated `mean level' and selling it when it is above. In the presence of linear transaction costs, a large amount of value is paid away crossing bid-offers unless one devises a `buffer' through which the price mus…
Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.
A continual learning agent learns online with a non-stationary and never-ending stream of data. The key to such learning process is to overcome the catastrophic forgetting of previously seen data, which is a well known problem of neural networks. To prevent forgetting, a replay buffer is usually employed to store the p…
DAC enhances exploration in reinforcement learning with entropy regularization.
Continual learning is the problem of learning new tasks or knowledge while protecting old knowledge and ideally generalizing from old experience to learn new tasks faster. Neural networks trained by stochastic gradient descent often degrade on old tasks when trained successively on new tasks with different data distrib…
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
The paper explores capital allocation using Euler formula with VaR and ES, revealing non-monotonicity and providing estimation methods.
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
Investigates optimal pension policies in PAYG systems with forward utility and ageing population.
Proportional transaction costs present difficult theoretical problems in trading algorithm design, on account of their lack of analytical tractability. The author derives a solution of DT-NT-DT form for an arbitrary model in which the the traded asset has diffusive dynamics described by one or more stochastic risk fact…
Study finds stock prices rarely appreciate during capital inflows but often appreciate during normal flows.
Novel asynchronous SGD method resists Byzantine attacks without server storage.
In this paper we see the evolution of a capitalized financial event e, with respect to a capitalization factor f, as the exponential map of a suitably defined Lie group G(f,e), supported by the half-space of capitalized financial events having the same capital sign of e. The Lie group G(f,e) depends upon the capitaliza…
The paper models financial markets and real economy interactions using a large agent framework.
Statistical fields model explains capital allocation and accumulation among firms and investors.
Tiled Squeeze-and-Excite improves channel attention with local spatial context.
Improved diffusion models for sampling from given distributions.
The recognition network in deep latent variable models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) relies on amortized inference for efficient posterior approximation that can scale up to large datasets. However, this technique has also been demonstrated to select suboptimal variational parameters, often resulting in consi…
OpenAlpha validates decentralized capital strategies using game theory and market aggregation.
Credit (CVA), Debit (DVA) and Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) are now familiar valuation adjustments made to the value of a portfolio of derivatives to account for credit risks and funding costs. However, recent changes in the regulatory regime and the increases in regulatory capital requirements has led many banks…
The paper analyzes optimal dividend and capital injection strategies under time-inconsistent preferences.
Study systemic risk measures and capital allocation rules, showing commonalities.
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft, government failures---that systematically thwart the product…
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
This paper presents a model of capital accumulation for a large number of heterogenous producer-consumers in an exchange space in which interactions depend on agents' positions. Each agent is described by his production, consumption, stock of capital, as well as the position he occupies in this abstract space. Each age…
New method allocates capital based on tail central moments for financial risk assessment.
A dynamical model of capital exchange is introduced in which a specified amount of capital is exchanged between two individuals when they meet. The resulting time dependent wealth distributions are determined for a variety of exchange rules. For ``greedy'' exchange, an interaction between a rich and a poor individual r…