arXiv research

Proves finite step termination of Kähler-Einstein metric singularity formation.

The paper studies vector bundles over surfaces, focusing on singularity formation.

Study on harmonic maps from surfaces to homogeneous spaces, focusing on bubble formation and geometric constraints.

Deep model predicts Bitcoin price movements without retraining.

We explore geometric aspects of bubble convergence for harmonic maps. More precisely, we show that the formation of bubbles is characterised by the local excess of curvature on the target manifold. We give a universal estimate for curvature concentration masses at each bubble point and show that there is no curvature l…

We consider a simple stochastic differential equation for modeling bubbles in social context. A prime example is bubbles in asset pricing, but similar mechanisms may control a range of social phenomena driven by psychological factors (for example, popularity of rock groups, or a number of students pursuing a given majo…

Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.

Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.

Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.

We analyze a controlled price formation experiment in the laboratory that shows evidence for bubbles. We calibrate two models that demonstrate with high statistical significance that these laboratory bubbles have a tendency to grow faster than exponential due to positive feedback. We show that the positive feedback ope…

There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from…

We consider a constructive model for asset price bubbles, where the market price $W$ is endogenously determined by the trading activity on the market and the fundamental price $W^F$ is exogenously given, as in the work of Jarrow, Protter and Roch (2012). To justify $W^F$ from a fundamental point of view, we embed this …

Investigates price dynamics of two assets with and without bubbles, deriving conditions for equilibrium prices.

The paper models cryptocurrency market bubbles using agent-based models.

Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.

Study predicts market bubbles using machine learning and financial news sentiment.

Agent-based model simulates speculative electronic market with price bubbles.

Study detects endogenous bubbles in meme stocks using CI.

Our analysis of financial data, in terms of super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. It became quite visible in 1999 when the post-bubble destabilization regime was well-developed and acted as the precursor of an inevitable collapse…

We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the nonlinear feedbacks, the termination of a bubble is found to be characterized by a …

The paper examines Indian market bubbles using financial ratios.

A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of its own private information, the public information and its own analysis. It th…

We introduce a simple extension of the minority game in which the market rewards contrarian (resp. trend-following) strategies when it is far from (resp. close to) efficiency. The model displays a smooth crossover from a regime where contrarians dominate to one where trend-followers dominate. In the intermediate phase,…

LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.

Study investigates singularity formation in $\alpha$-Yang-Mills-Higgs fields on spheres.

Researchers found a new type of singularity in surface evolution equations.

We consider the formation of singularities along the Calabi flow with the assumption of the uniform Sobolev constant. In particular, on Kähler surface we show that any "maximal bubble" has to be a scalar flat ALE Kähler metric. In some certain classes on toric Fano surface, the Sobolev constant is a priori bounded alon…

Continuous process closes cusps in complex algebraic surfaces.

We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected tr…

New Ricci flows found with Einstein orbifolds at infinity.

We study the formation of derivative prices in equilibrium between risk-neutral agents with heterogeneous beliefs about the dynamics of the underlying. Under the condition that the derivative cannot be shorted, we prove the existence of a unique equilibrium price and show that it incorporates the speculative value of p…

Study reveals the 2020 U.S. stock crash was endogenous, not caused by COVID.

Unified framework models credit cycles and systemic risk.

The twistor space of a Riemannian 4-manifold carries two almost complex structures, $J_+$ and $J_-$, and a natural closed 2-form $ω$. This article studies limits of manifolds for which $ω$ tames either $J_+$ or $J_-$. This amounts to a curvature inequality involving self-dual Weyl curvature and Ricci curvature, and whi…

Characterizes critical points in convex double and triple bubbles.

Survey on soap bubble partitions and their stability.

Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.

Study Yang-Mills connections on four-manifolds, derive obstructions to bubbling.

Rational bubbles form in nonstationary models of real assets.

Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.

Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.

Degenerate solutions found in 2D H-system bubbles with higher degrees.

Model financial markets with social media influences using hierarchical networks.

This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that docum…

On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…

This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that documen…

Solves the quintuple bubble problem on spheres and Euclidean spaces.

Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …